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SteadyOptions 2016 - Year In Review

2016 marks our firth year as a public service. We had a good year overall. We closed 127 trades in 2016. The model portfolio produced 40.1% compounded gain on the whole account based on 10% allocation. The winning ratio was pretty consistent around 66%. We had three losing months in 2016.

Calculating ROI in Options Trading

Our readers know that our returns have been tracked by Pro-Trading-Profits, an independent third party website that tracks performance of hundreds investment newsletters. They provided an excellent explanation how to analyze and compare performance of different trading systems. 

How To Lose $197 Million Trading VIX

The mysterious volatility trader known as "50 Cent" has lost $197 million in 2017 betting on a spike in the VIX, which would accompany a stock market shock. 50 Cent is starting to slow down, deploying roughly 20% of the contracts he had outstanding over the summer. This story has been published in Business Insider.

Debunking The Dividend Myth

"Investors should be indifferent to $1 in the form of a dividend (causing the stock’s price to drop by $1) or $1 received by selling shares. This must be true, unless you believe that $1 is not worth $1. This theorem has not been challenged since—except by those bitten by the “dividend bug.”

If I Only Bought Netflix a Decade Ago

Here’s a fun thought experiment. Suppose you had $15,000 to invest evenly in fifteen different companies back before the Great Recession. Then you let it ride through the market’s downturn, holding your investment instead of selling anything. How much would you have today?

Options Equivalent Positions

One of the interesting features about options is that there is a relationship between calls, puts, and the underlying stock. And because of that relationship, some option positions are equivalent – that means identical profit/loss profiles – to others.

Straddle Option Overview

For those not familiar with the long straddle option strategy, it is a neutral strategy in options trading that involves the simultaneously buying of a put and a call on the same underlying, strike and expiration. The trade has a limited risk (which is the debit paid for the trade) and unlimited profit potential. 

Earnings Momentum Trade in Oracle

We last wrote about Oracle on 2017-09-03 with this same back-test -- a 3-day momentum swing trade ahead of earnings and it has followed through for 8 consecutive pre-earnings cycles with a 290% total return during that historical period. Oracle's next earnings date is 12-14-2017, but this not is not yet confirmed. 

Reverse Iron Condor Strategy

The Reverse Iron Condor (RIC) is a limited risk, limited profit trading strategy that is designed to earn a profit when the underlying stock price makes a sharp move in either direction. The RIC Spread is where you buy an Iron Condor Spread from someone who is betting on the underlying stock staying stagnant.

Netflix Pre-earnings Momentum Trade

Netflix has earnings due out Monday, October 16th, after the market closes. Seven calendar days before then would be 10-9-2017. Coming off of a nice win in THO, now it's time to look at the company's remarkable history of momentum into earnings events and how it compares to FAANG more broadly. 

Options Are Not Stocks

This question is not related exclusively to options, but, given the time decay element built into them, it may be particularly relevant to them.The question is this: are there any general rules that you use for exiting trades that start to go against you, especially if they are not based on an anticipation of a specific catalyst?

Microsoft Pre-earnings Momentum Trade

Microsoft has earnings due out on October 26th, 2017, after the market close, according to Wall Street Horizon. 7-days before then would be October 19th, 2017. Microsoft is the forgotten mega tech -- the third largest company in the world behind Apple and Alphabet, but it doesn't fall into any fun Acronyms, like FANG, or FAANG. 

Why Winning Ratio Means Nothing

A lot of options traders consider 90% probability strategies a Holy Grail of trading. After all, if you can win 90% of the time, you should be able to grow your account very quickly, right? Well, not only this is not true, but in fact, winning ratio alone tells you NOTHING about your chances to be profitable.