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that time of the quarter again.... with GOOG implied earnings move being cheap (as usual) - currently at ~5% so below 10Q avg. of 7.1% and 4Q avg. of 5.3% I usually look at a tight RIC that needs ~2-3% move to make the max profit. currently with stock at 755 that would be 740/750/760/770 RIC with mid at about 9.15 and the 735/745/765/775 RIC with mid at about 8.50 - both expiring this Friday (18th). the first one needs ~2% move for max profit the 2nd one ~2.6% move. Lowest move in the last 10Q's was 2.4% so it has a high probability for the max profit but the loss if GOOG doesn't move will be large as well as you'll be trading the option on expiry day - so there wont be much time value left. Also spreads will be wide for that reason so in practice you'll need a move a bit bigger than above to close the RIC for say 9.90 (I wouldn't take the risk to let it expire unless we have a 10% move or so) for these reasons I would also look at the weekly that will be listed tomorrow - expiring next week and see how the numbers stack up there - that will give the stock a week longer to move (but also has the risk that the stock will revert to the mid) and in case GOOG doesn't move much you have a bit of time value left so loss will be closer to 50% rather than 70-80% I'll be trying to enter the trade near the close to be as delta neutral as possible. Chris, you have done this trade in the past so if you are around I'd like to hear your thoughts, m.