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2021 Year End Performance By Trade Type

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Thanks @krisbee I was thinking of doing a personal guide for symbols to watch and this makes things a lot easier, it really is a complete overview of the year and give us a great perspective.

Thanks to @Kim @Yowster @krisbee and all the SO community, is fun to sail the market's sea with you.

Edited by Patricio

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Great report card @Yowster - the year 2021 was not good for ratios. As you know I have traded loads of them but far fewer in 2021 and the score card isnt good on them roughly 60 losses, 58 wins and 10 draws in the year. Compared to 2020 where winners outnumbered the losers 3 to 2 and 2019 where it was a 2:1 win ratio and many more trades in both years in my case. There was only one period I traded a lot of ratios and that was End July, August and a little of September and the batting rate was a winner for a loser more or less with the marginal rate of winning just edging out the losses. In the rest of the year the picture was worse.


My current hypothesis looking at the data is that the key element that the ratio trade is predicated upon, rising IV affecting the long more than the short works particularly well in times of extremely low volatility like we had in 2019 and 2018. Stock movement cant really explain the outcome because for all its bizarreness 2021 was a roaring bull and 2020 - after the February drop as well.

When the starting IV is lower the rise of IV into earnings is more pronounced in relative terms between the strikes than when IV is at a higher set level to begin with. As of mid this year I was also able to see the difference in IV between strikes of the same expiry and they are massive much more than I ever reckoned when I took the average ATM IV as valid for a whole expiry. Its not clear whether this difference is larger in relative terms during periods of very low volatility or high. In absolute terms the difference is likely to be higher in periods of higher volatility but in relative terms perhaps not so much.

In any case as is normal - no single strategy works all the time - like SO (and on top of the SO trades) I traded loads more calendars this year than the other years with great success learned here on SO. I traded fewer NEHS but they were well worth it - my personal trouble is making straddles and strangles work but thats just me!


Anyway great result Yowster. Well done to all at SO.

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I am brand new to Steady Options. 

Yowster's summary for last year is EXCEPTIONAL.

I am a little confused about which TRADE IDEAS I should consider taking to try to MATCH the results that Yowster has tabulated.

To be clear, I know that I should be taking Kim's trades but should I also be taking the trades recommended by Yowster and other traders?  

If I begin taking trades from other Traders, how can I determine WHICH TRADERS I should follow and copy their recommendations?

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