Kim 7,958 Report post Posted November 24, 2021 Our contributor @krisbee created an interactive chart showing SteadyOptions performance by strategy. Here is a beta version: 2021 Performance By Strategy Enjoy, and thank you @krisbee!! 4 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patricio 136 Report post Posted November 24, 2021 (edited) Thanks @krisbee I was thinking of doing a personal guide for symbols to watch and this makes things a lot easier, it really is a complete overview of the year and give us a great perspective. Thanks to @Kim @Yowster @krisbee and all the SO community, is fun to sail the market's sea with you. Edited November 24, 2021 by Patricio Grammar 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yowster 9,267 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 As has become my year-end tradition, I’ve broken down the Steady Options 2021 trade performance by trade type. Numbers were taken directly from the data in the Performance screen. Here’s are this year’s stats along with some comments from my perspective. Where applicable, I added totals from prior years for comparison. I should highlight up-front that 2021 saw SO’s highest ever yearly Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of ~201%. It was a start to a return to a more “normal” market behavior – although VIX did have a few spikes into the 20’s and 30’s, it spent a large portion of the year below 20 which means we were able to do many of the SO standard bread and butter trades like calendars and straddles. Pre-Earnings Calendars 110 Trades – 87 win, 23 loss (79% win) – Average Gain +12.82% 2020: 33 trades (85% win) – Average Gain +21.97% 2019: 54 trades (65% win) – Average Gain +9.27% 2018: 40 trades (78% win) – Average Gain +9.61% 2017: 31 trades (84% win) – Average Gain +13.81% 2016: 44 trades (80% win) - Average Gain +15.07% 2015: 51 trades (80% win) – Average Gain +12.67% 2014: 48 trades (71% win) – Average Gain +13.80% 2013: 24 trades (88% win) – Average Gain +20.60% Comments: Highest ever number of calendar trades by a large margin at roughly twice the highest total of prior years. I attribute a large part of this increase to the RV analysis tools we now use all the time. Despite the higher number of trades, both win percentage and average gain per trade were on par with prior years - which means the calendars portion of the overall SO profit was very high this year. Straddles/Strangles (earnings and non-earnings) 129 Trades - 87 win, 40 loss, 2 break-even (68% win) – Average Gain +3.27% Breaking down further by hedged and non-hedged: Hedged – 27 win, 11 loss (71% win), average gain +2.11% Non-Hedged – 60 win, 29 loss, 2 break-even (67% win), average gain +3.75% 2020: 118 trades (67% win) – Average Gain +2.80% 2019: 106 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +3.58% 2018: 72 trades (83% win) – Average Gain +5.40% 2017: 77 trades (79% win) – Average Gain +5.02% 2016: 18 trades (72% win) – Average Gain +5.19% 2015: 44 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +2.61% 2014: 74 trades (62% win) – Average Gain +2.54% 2013: 104 trades (57% win) – Average Gain +1.35% Comments: Note that this data contains both earnings straddles and non-earnings hedged straddle (NEHS) trades. Highest ever number of straddle/strangle trades, up slightly from the number of trades during the last few years. Like calendars, RV analysis tools have helped identify more trades than before these tools were available. The straddle/strangle contribution to the overall SO profit was a yearly high. This is calculated as the number of trades multiplied by the average gain per trade. Hedged straddle average gain was hurt by several larger losses. Digging into these trades showed that they were all trades where we held the long straddles beyond the last short expiration and into earnings week, had the trades been closed on the day of the last short expiration losses would have been much lower. This will be a take-away for me going into 2022, when we have a losing trade as of the last short expiration, if I do hold the trade into earnings weeks I will add shorts to help protect against further RV decline. Very low risk trades as it takes RV levels going much lower than prior cycles for these trades to be significant losers Flys and Verticals 21 trades – 15 win, 6 loss (71% win) – Average Gain +4.81% Comments: New trade type, so no prior year comparisons. Directional, delta positive trades playing for stock price increase. Most trades were hedged. Used to replace call verticals as they handle falling RV better. Ratio Trades 9 trades – 3 win, 6 loss (33% win) – Average Loss -7.96% 2020: 10 trades (70% win) – Average Gain +2.50% 2019: 28 trades (64% win) – Average Gain +2.01% Comments: Poor performance caused by not having enough stock price rise scenarios, or having the gains on the rise offset by RV decline. For delta positive directional trades like this, we switched to unbalanced flys and call verticals, as they handle the scenario of stock price rising coupled with RV falling much better than the call ratios. Index trades (TLT, EEM, SPY, USO, EEM) No index trades this year: 2020: 19 trades (63% win) – Average Gain 9.54% 2019: 20 trades (60% win) – Average Loss -7.71% 2018: 22 trades (86% win) – Average Gain +15.35% 2017: 9 Trades (89% win) – Average Gain +19.72% 2016: 27 Trades (67% win) – Average Gain +3.01% Comments: We didn’t do index trades this year. Not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. Other Trades Only one “other” trade this year. Summary 2021 Steady Options model portfolio gain is around +201% for the year, and as stated earlier it’s the highest yearly return we’ve ever had. While not everyone will be able to match this performance, the key takeaway is that the SO-style trades work – which means learning these trades and “making them your own” is well worth the effort. Again this year, I’d like to highlight and thank the SO community. We really have a bunch of very smart people who share their ideas and knowledge – this is what makes SO great. This year saw many new members make positive contributions to the community. Looking forward keeping things rolling in 2022! 2020 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2019 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2018 Year End Performance by trade type. 2017 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2016 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2015 Year End Performance by Trade Type 4 9 7 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TrustyJules 3,221 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 Great report card @Yowster - the year 2021 was not good for ratios. As you know I have traded loads of them but far fewer in 2021 and the score card isnt good on them roughly 60 losses, 58 wins and 10 draws in the year. Compared to 2020 where winners outnumbered the losers 3 to 2 and 2019 where it was a 2:1 win ratio and many more trades in both years in my case. There was only one period I traded a lot of ratios and that was End July, August and a little of September and the batting rate was a winner for a loser more or less with the marginal rate of winning just edging out the losses. In the rest of the year the picture was worse. My current hypothesis looking at the data is that the key element that the ratio trade is predicated upon, rising IV affecting the long more than the short works particularly well in times of extremely low volatility like we had in 2019 and 2018. Stock movement cant really explain the outcome because for all its bizarreness 2021 was a roaring bull and 2020 - after the February drop as well. When the starting IV is lower the rise of IV into earnings is more pronounced in relative terms between the strikes than when IV is at a higher set level to begin with. As of mid this year I was also able to see the difference in IV between strikes of the same expiry and they are massive much more than I ever reckoned when I took the average ATM IV as valid for a whole expiry. Its not clear whether this difference is larger in relative terms during periods of very low volatility or high. In absolute terms the difference is likely to be higher in periods of higher volatility but in relative terms perhaps not so much. In any case as is normal - no single strategy works all the time - like SO (and on top of the SO trades) I traded loads more calendars this year than the other years with great success learned here on SO. I traded fewer NEHS but they were well worth it - my personal trouble is making straddles and strangles work but thats just me! Anyway great result Yowster. Well done to all at SO. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 7,958 Report post Posted December 28, 2021 Thank you @Yowster! This was indeed an outstanding year, thanks to our contributors and our amazing community. Thank you everyone for your support! 4 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stanc 4 Report post Posted August 29, 2022 I am brand new to Steady Options. Yowster's summary for last year is EXCEPTIONAL. I am a little confused about which TRADE IDEAS I should consider taking to try to MATCH the results that Yowster has tabulated. To be clear, I know that I should be taking Kim's trades but should I also be taking the trades recommended by Yowster and other traders? If I begin taking trades from other Traders, how can I determine WHICH TRADERS I should follow and copy their recommendations? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 7,958 Report post Posted August 29, 2022 @stanc Please make sure to read the Welcome to SteadyOptions post and Frequently Asked Questions This is absolutely critical! All trades that are posted under SteadyOptions Trades are considered official trades and are tracked on the performance page and yearly summaries. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
