SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. Join Us!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

The Fallacy of Market Timing


The headlines say it all. "The worst day since the financial crisis". "Markets in turmoil". And today was "Stock markets post best day in years as governments fight coronavirus with cash". Could anyone predict the crash? And can anyone tell us where we are headed next week/month/year? Is it possible to call the tops and the bottoms?

A self proclaimed "market wizard" keeps tweeting every day that he sent a sell signal just before the meltdown, but to verify it you need to pay $1,000 per MONTH for his subscription. Is it possible that he indeed issued a sell signal? We have no way to know (unless someone is willing to spend $1000/month to verify). But even if he did, many "gurus" have been predicting a crash for the last 5-7 years. They were wrong so many times - at some point their "prediction" became true. From now on they will be advertising their good call, "forgetting" all previous predictions.

And here is the funny thing noticed by someone on Twitter:

image.png

Bob Prechter from ElliottWave made himself a pretty good name by correctly forecasting the 2008 market crash. What most people don't remember is the fact that Prechter's newsletter had been almost uninterruptedly bearish for the nearly two decades prior to 2008. A bearish stopped clock even gets to be right occasionally.

Last week I came across another "expert" who claimed that it's actually not so difficult to catch markets tops and bottoms. He even "knew" the exact timing of the next crash and the exact prices:

image.png

image.png

image.png 

image.png

That's right. SPY was supposed to hit $160 on Monday March 23. AAPL's target was $150 and ROKU's $50.

Well, as I write this on Tuesday March 24, SPY is at $245, AAPL at $248 and ROKU at $97.

So what's your point you might ask? They might still hit those targets next week/month.

Yes they might. The question is when. 

To me, it doesn't matter. I initiated a small position in ROKU when it was around $70, and I expect the stock to go back to $120-140 at some point. When? Again, I have no idea. And it doesn't matter - it's a long term investment. I also started small positions in NVDA and NKE. My goal is not to catch the bottom. I just want to buy good stocks at attractive prices.

So let me repeat this one more time:

Nobody can consistently and reliably predict markets tops and bottoms.

Nobody can predict where specific stocks will be at any point in the future.

Nobody can be consistently successful in trading short term fluctuations. Especially in this market.

Anyone who tells you otherwise is misleading you. And it doesn't matter if they call themselves "market wizards" or "trading champions". 

Here is my prediction: the markets will recover. They always do. But please don't ask me when. I have no idea. Nobody does. 

 

What Is SteadyOptions?

12 Years CAGR of 127.5%

Full Trading Plan

Complete Portfolio Approach

Real-time trade sharing: entry, exit, and adjustments

Diversified Options Strategies

Exclusive Community Forum

Steady And Consistent Gains

High Quality Education

Risk Management, Portfolio Size

Performance based on real fills

Subscribe to SteadyOptions now and experience the full power of options trading!
Subscribe

Non-directional Options Strategies

10-15 trade Ideas Per Month

Targets 5-7% Monthly Net Return

Visit our Education Center

Recent Articles

Articles

  • Harnessing Monte Carlo Simulations for Options Trading: A Strategic Approach

    In the world of options trading, one of the greatest challenges is determining future price ranges with enough accuracy to structure profitable trades. One method traders can leverage to enhance these predictions is Monte Carlo simulations, a powerful statistical tool that allows for the projection of a stock or ETF's future price distribution based on historical data.

    By Romuald,

    • 1 comment
    • 5,340 views
  • Is There Such A Thing As Risk-Management Within Crypto Trading?

    Any trader looking to build reliable long-term wealth is best off avoiding cryptocurrency. At least, this is a message that the experts have been touting since crypto entered the trading sphere and, in many ways, they aren’t wrong. The volatile nature of cryptocurrencies alone places them very much in the red danger zone of high-risk investments.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 1,401 views
  • Is There A ‘Free Lunch’ In Options?

     

    In olden times, alchemists would search for the philosopher’s stone, the material that would turn other materials into gold. Option traders likewise sometimes overtly, sometimes secretly hope to find something which is even sweeter than being able to play video games for money with Moincoins, that most elusive of all option positions: the risk free trade with guaranteed positive outcome.

    By TrustyJules,

    • 1 comment
    • 17,438 views
  • What Are Covered Calls And How Do They Work?

    A covered call is an options trading strategy where an investor holds a long position in an asset (most usually an equity) and sells call options on that same asset. This strategy can generate additional income from the premium received for selling the call options.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 2,876 views
  • SPX Options vs. SPY Options: Which Should I Trade?

    Trading options on the S&P 500 is a popular way to make money on the index. There are several ways traders use this index, but two of the most popular are to trade options on SPX or SPY. One key difference between the two is that SPX options are based on the index, while SPY options are based on an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the index.

    By Mark Wolfinger,

    • 0 comments
    • 7,042 views
  • Yes, We Are Playing Not to Lose!

    There are many trading quotes from different traders/investors, but this one is one of my favorites: “In trading/investing it's not about how much you make, but how much you don't lose" - Bernard Baruch. At SteadyOptions, this has been one of our major goals in the last 12 years.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 4,225 views
  • The Impact of Implied Volatility (IV) on Popular Options Trades

    You’ll often read that a given option trade is either vega positive (meaning that IV rising will help it and IV falling will hurt it) or vega negative (meaning IV falling will help and IV rising will hurt).   However, in fact many popular options spreads can be either vega positive or vega negative depending where where the stock price is relative to the spread strikes.  

    By Yowster,

    • 0 comments
    • 6,604 views
  • Please Follow Me Inside The Insiders

    The greatest joy in investing in options is when you are right on direction. It’s really hard to beat any return that is based on a correct options bet on the direction of a stock, which is why we spend much of our time poring over charts, historical analysis, Elliot waves, RSI and what not.

    By TrustyJules,

    • 0 comments
    • 3,826 views
  • Trading Earnings With Ratio Spread

    A 1x2 ratio spread with call options is created by selling one lower-strike call and buying two higher-strike calls. This strategy can be established for either a net credit or for a net debit, depending on the time to expiration, the percentage distance between the strike prices and the level of volatility.

    By TrustyJules,

    • 0 comments
    • 4,950 views
  • SteadyOptions 2023 - Year In Review

    2023 marks our 12th year as a public trading service. We closed 192 winners out of 282 trades (68.1% winning ratio). Our model portfolio produced 112.2% compounded gain on the whole account based on 10% allocation per trade. We had only one losing month and one essentially breakeven in 2023. 

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 9,476 views

  • Like 1
  Report Article

We want to hear from you!


There are no comments to display.



Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account. It's easy and free!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

Options Trading Blogs