Ophir Gottlieb

Yep, that sounds right.

PREFACEUlta Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA) earnings are due out tomorrow after the close. In the last 3-years, this time has meant an opportunity.Read: Ulta Earnings: An Opportunity (VIDEO) Here is the Back-test link.

It's in private beta. We're still a week(ish) away, but I thought everyone would like to see the progress.

Correct. Still in private beta.

You will have the ability to do whatever you like. I was just showing one variant of nearly infinite. I think everyone will be more than pleased, and in fact, excited. We'll do our best.

@Kim We're up in beta with custom strategies. Here is the pre-earnings calendar straddle. First, create the strategy and save it: Then define your earnings timing: And test multiple symbols at once: Here is HD, BWLD and FB For all Steady Options members, you can sign up on promotion here: https://cmlviz.com/register/cml-trademachine-49-mo-promotion-so/

How to Profit from Visa, Appl, Goldman Sachs Options Right After Earnings Date Published: 2017-05-23 Written and recorded by Ophir Gottlieb This article can be seen as a video, below. As a Steady Options member, you have promotional pricing for the Back-tester here: https://cmlviz.com/register/cml-trademachine-49-mo-promotion-so/

How to Profit from Visa Inc Options Right After Earnings Date Published: 2017-05-23 Written by Ophir Gottlieb LEDE While Visa Inc (NYSE:V) just broke another all-time high in stock price, one option trade after earnings has been a consistent winner, has a much shorter holding period, and has vastly outperformed the stock. It takes no earnings risk, little stock direction risk, and over the last year has never lost while returning over 100% annualized returns. The Trade After Earnings While most of the focus is on the actual earnings move for a stock, that's the distraction when it comes to the option market. For Visa Inc, irrespective of whether the earnings move was up or down, if we waited two-days after the stock move from earnings, and then sold an at the money put spread, the results were very strong. We can examine this, objectively, with a custom option back-test. Here is our earnings set-up: Rules * Open short put spread 2 day after earnings * Close short put spread 29 days later * Use the option that is closest to but greater than 30-days away from expiration Here are the results over the last year -- while also comparing this strategy to the less refined idea of just selling the put spread every month, while also avoiding earnings. Back-test Link Focusing in just the month after earnings, we see a 79.1% return over a total of 12 earnings releases. But, doing this strategy all year returned just 57.7%. For each approach, no earnings risk was taken -- this is not a coin flip over earnings. But there's more here. For clarity, this is how the two strategies differ: By only trading the month after earnings, we are looking at a strategy that only had open positions for 12 full months (one-month per earnings period, 4 earnings releases per year). The other approach did in fact take full 3-years to realize and that means it tied up the margin for much longer. The Logic The logic behind this trade follows a narrative that even after a bad earnings release, if we wait two days after, we find the stock at a point of equilibrium. If it gapped down -- that gap is over. If it beat earnings, the downside move is already likely muted. Here's how this strategy has done over the last year, again compared side-by-side to the short put strategy that traded all months: Back-test Link The "single-month" approach returned 35.6% over the last four earnings cycles, but since this is a total of a four-month holding period, that 35.6% is actually over 105% annualized. The approach that held during all months returned just 10.3%, and that is the annual return -- it took a full year to realize. During the last year, the stock is up 21.8%. WHAT HAPPENED There are patterns to stock behaviors before and after earnings and those patterns reveal opportunities in the option market, without taking the actual risk of earnings. You can find them, stock by stock, Apple, Google, Netflix and of course Visa Inc are just a handful of examples. There has been edge here with this strategy. To see how to do this for any stock and for any strategy with just the click of a few buttons, we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. The author has no position in Visa Inc as of this writing. Back-test Link

Here it is -- a portfolio of FAANG stocks using pre-earnings trading. A 3:30 video that is staggering and includes some robustness testing. Reminder that you can sign up for Trade Machine as a Steady Options member here: https://cmlviz.com/register/cml-trademachine-49-mo-promotion-so/

Here it is -- a portfolio of FAANG stocks using pre-earnings trading. A 3:30 video that is staggering and includes some robustness testing. Reminder that you can sign up for Trade Machine as a Steady Options member here: https://cmlviz.com/register/cml-trademachine-49-mo-promotion-so/ https://youtu.be/RghygABxyKY

Yep, we're getting there. It takes a fair amount of work for the edge cases so it has put us a little behind. Still looking at end of May -- we are making good progress. If you want to be a beta tester and really help us get the bugs out you can email support@cmlviz.com with "beta tester" in the subject and in the body note that you want to beta test the custom strategies. We will likely have a private beta out in less than a week -- then it's about testing (we do have automated testing as well, of course).

How to Profit from Trading Options in Autodesk Inc Right After Earnings Date Published: 2017-05-18 Written by Ophir Gottlieb LEDE While Autodesk Inc (NASDAQ:ADSK) just crushed earnings again, sending shares soaring in the after hours trade, one option trade after earnings has been a consistent winner. It takes no earnings risk, little stock direction risk and over the last year has never lost while returning over 160% annualized returns. The Trade After the Excitement While most of the focus is on the actual earnings move for a stock, that's the distraction when it comes to the option market. For Autodesk Inc, irrespective of whether the earnings move was up or down, if we waited one-day after the stock move from earnings, and then sold an out of the money put spread, the results were very strong. We can examine this, objectively, with a custom option back-test. Here is our earnings set-up: Rules * Open short put spread 1 day after earnings * Close short put spread 29 days later * Use the option that is closest to but greater than 30-days away from expiration Here are the results over the last year: That's a 47.3% return, with 4 winning trades and 0 losing trades. The total holding period was less than 4 full months, meaning the annualized return was over 160%. No earnings risk was taken -- this is not a coin flip over earnings. The Logic This strategy works beautifully in many companies where heavy stock volume follows the earnings release. The logic behind this trade follows a narrative that even after a bad earnings release, if we wait a day after, we find the stock at a point of equilibrium. If it gapped down -- that gap is over. If it beat earnings, the downside move is already likely muted. Here's how this strategy has done over the last 6-months: That's a 21.3% return, on 2 winning trades and 0 losing trades. Since this is a total of a two-month holding period, that 21.3% is actually over 120% annualized. If you're curious, yes, this also produced positive returns over the last 3-years. Here are those results. Now we can find some comfort in this approach where is shows 9 winning trades and just 2 losing trades over the last three-years. WHAT HAPPENED There are patterns to stock behaviors before and after earnings and those patterns reveal opportunities in the option market, without taking the actual risk of earnings. You can find them, stock by stock, Apple, Google, Netflix and of course Autodesk Inc are just a handful of examples. There has been edge here with this strategy. To see how to do this for any stock and for any strategy with just the click of a few buttons, we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. The author has no position in Autodesk Inc (NASDAQ:ADSK) as of this writing. Back-test Link

This is how i use the back-tester to find edge. This is a case study with Netflix, where we end up reducing risk by 83% and nearly doubling returns. As a Steady Options member, you can try the back-tester for $49/mo. Here you go: https://cmlviz.com/register/cml-trademachine-49-mo-promotion-so/

The Staggering Reality of Option Trading in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd Date Published: 2017-05-16 PREFACE Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) stock has been on tear, up 56% in the last year, but a risk managed option strategy has so outperformed the stock it's almost unbelievable. OPTION TRADING Selling an out of the money put spread is an investment that wins if the underlying stock "doesn't go down a lot." It sounds boring, but it has been a powerful tool with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) -- but only for the clever trader. Here is how selling an out of the money put spread every month has done over the last three-years: Back-test Link If that return looks low, it is. The stock has actually been up 35% in the last three-years. But this isn't the trade the professionals make, this is the trade the amateurs make. What we need to do is measure the impact of earnings announcements on this strategy by adjusting our settings, like this: Once we add this change, the results are staggering. Here are the three-year results for this option trade, now: We have taken a 16.9% return and seen it rise to over 100%, and all we really did was take less risk. The 105% return in three-years has nearly tripled the stock and avoided all of the risk of earnings, while simply investing in the idea that Alibaba Group Holding Ltd "won't go down a lot." CONSISTENT OVER TIME We can do this exact test over the last two-years, as well: We see a 9.2% return turned into a 47.8% return, or about a 5-fold increase by taking less risk. Again, this option investment has outperformed the stock, as well. Finally, we can look at the last year: Selling an out of the money put spread but avoiding earnings has returned 116% in the last year, versus a stock rise of 56%. WHAT HAPPENED This is how people profit from the option market -- it's preparation, not luck. To see how to do this for any stock we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. Back-test Link

The link is always included at the bottom of the article.

How to Trade Options Before Earnings in Broadcom Limited (NASDAQ:AVGO) How to Trade Options Before Earnings in Broadcom Limited (NASDAQ:AVGO) Date Published: 2017-05-15 PREFACE Trading options in a short window before earnings are released benefits from the rising implied volatility but avoids the risk into the actual earnings release and also avoids any kind of stock direction risk. This approach has returned a annualized rate of 198%. Now that's worth looking into. STORY Everyone knows that the day of an earnings announcement is a risky event for a stock. This can be explicitly seen in the option market, where the implied volatility (the expected stock move) rises into the earnings event. The question every option trader, whether professional or amateur, has long asked is if there is a way to profit from this known volatility rise. It turns out, that over the long-run, for stocks with certain tendencies like Broadcom Limited (NASDAQ:AVGO) the answer is actually, yes. Yes, there is a systematic way to trade this repeating phenomenon, without making a bet on earnings or stock direction. THE SET UP What a trader wants to do is to see the results of buying an at the money straddle a few days before earnings, and then sell that straddle just before earnings. The goal, is two-fold: (i) to benefit from that known implied volatility rise, and (ii) to own the straddle for a very short period of time when the stock might move 'a lot,' but taking no earnings bets. If either of those two phenomena occur, there's a very good chance this wins, if neither occur, the amount risked is normally quite small. Here is the setup: We are testing opening the position 6 days before earnings and then closing the position 1 day before earnings. This is not making any earnings bet. This is not making any stock direction bet. Once we apply that simple rule to our back-test, we run it on an at-the-money straddle: RETURNS If we did this long at-the-money (also called '50-delta') straddle in Broadcom Limited (NASDAQ:AVGO) over the last three-years but only held it before earnings we get these results: Long At-the-Money Straddle * Monthly Options * Back-test length: three-years * Open 6-days Before Earnings * Close 1-day Before Earnings * Holding Period: 5-Days per Earnings Winning Trades: 5 Losing Trades: 7 Pre-Earnings Straddle Return: 17.1% Annualized Return: 102% We see a 17.1% return, testing this over the last 12 earnings dates in Broadcom Limited. That's a total of just 60 days (5 days for each earnings date, over 12 earnings dates). That's a annualized rate of 102%. We can also see that this strategy hasn't been a winner all the time, rather it has won 5 times and lost 7 times, but here's the key -- it wins about half of the time, but the average gain per winning trade is substantially larger than the average loss on a losing trade: Consistently Successful This idea has also been a successful approach over the last two-years: Long At-the-Money Straddle * Monthly Options * Back-test length: two-years * Open 6-days Before Earnings * Close 1-day Before Earnings * Holding Period: 5-Days per Earnings Winning Trades: 4 Losing Trades: 4 Pre-Earnings Straddle Return: 22% Annualized Return: 198% Now we see a 22% return, testing this over the last 8 earnings dates which is a annualized rate of 198%. Yet again, we see a trade that wins about half the time, but the average win is much larger than the average loss: If you really want to see how we found this, and how to do it for other stocks like Apple, Google and Amazon, here is a 1-minute and 34-second video that every professional option trader would rather that you don't see. Learn more here: Try the Back-tester Yourself WHAT HAPPENED There are patterns to stock behaviors before and after earnings and those patterns reveal opportunities in the option market, without taking the actual risk of earnings. You can find them, stock by stock. This is how people profit from the option market -- it's preparation, not luck. To see how to do this for any stock we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. Back-test Link

Exactly how to trade Netflix options right after earnings Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) : Intelligent Options Trading: Right After Earnings Date Published: 2017-05-9 LEDE This is a simple option trade that starts two-days after Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) earnings and lasts for the one month to follow, that has been a winner for 3 straight years. Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) Earnings While the mainstream media likes to focus on the actual earnings move for a stock, that's the distraction when it comes to the option market. For Netflix Inc, irrespective of whether the earnings move was up or down, if we waited two-days after the stock move, and then sold an one-month out of the money put spread, the results were simply staggering. We use two-days to allow the stock to fully reach equilibrium post earnings. We can examine this intelligent approach, objectively, with a custom option back-test. Here is our earnings set-up: Rules * Open short put spread 2-days after earnings * Close short put spread 29 days later * Use the 30-day options RETURNS If we sold this out-of-the-money put spread in Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) over the last three-years but only held it after earnings we get these results: Intelligent Short Put Spread * Monthly Options * Back-test length: three-years * Open 2-days After Earnings * Close 29-days Later * Holding Period: 28-Days per Earnings Winning Trades: 11 Losing Trades: 1 Post-Earnings Short Put Spread Return: 77% Annualized Return: 84% We see a 77% return, testing this over the last 12 earnings dates in Netflix Inc. That's a total of just 336 days (28 days for each earnings date, over 12 earnings dates). We can also see that this strategy hasn't been a winner all the time, rather it has won 11 times and lost 1 times, for a 92% win-rate. MORE TO IT THAN MEETS THE EYE While a short put spread is a strategy that gains profits if the underlying stock "doesn't go down a lot," there is more to this with Netflix. What we're after with this approach is identifying companies that make their large stock move the two-days after earnings -- whether that's up or down -- and after that, find a sense of equilibrium in the stock price for the next month. This is what we find in Netflix and several other companies, even if they miss earnings badly, like Twitter. WHAT HAPPENED This is how people profit from the option market. Take a reasonable idea or hypothesis, test it, and apply lessons learned. To see how to do this for any stock and for any strategy with just the click of a few buttons, we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.

Yeah, those deltas are weird. They come from Option Metrics, which is widely considered the most robust option modeling. I will ask them.

If you're asking me, yeah that looks like a good trade. Top 4 wins: Top 4 Losses (in %) +40 : -14 (+26%) +15 : -10 (+5%) +11 : -3 (+8%) +10 : -2 (+8%) That's a remarkable track record.

Option Trading Right Before Earnings in GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) : The Wonderful Secret to Options Trading Before Earnings Date Published: 2017-05-10 PREFACE There is a way to trade options right before earnings announcements in GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO), and really many stocks, that benefits from the rising implied volatility but avoids the risk into the actual earnings release and also avoids any kind of stock direction risk. STORY Everyone knows that the day of an earnings announcement is a risky event for a stock. This can be explicitly seen in the option market, where the implied volatility (the expected stock move) rises into the earnings event. The question every option trader, whether professional or amateur, has long asked is if there is a way to profit from this known volatility rise. It turns out, that over the long-run, for stocks with certain tendencies like GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) the answer is actually, yes. Yes, there is a systematic way to trade this repeating phenomenon, without making a bet on earnings or stock direction. THE IDEA What a trader wants to do is to see the results of buying an at the money straddle a few days before earnings, and then sell that straddle just before earnings. The goal, is two-fold: (i) to benefit from that known implied volatility rise, and (ii) to own the straddle for a very short period of time when the stock might move 'a lot,' but taking no earnings bets. If either of those two phenomena occur, there's a very good chance this wins, if neither occur, the amount risked is normally quite small. Here is the setup: We are testing opening the position 6 days before earnings and then closing the position 1 day before earnings. This is not making any earnings bet. This is not making any stock direction bet. Once we apply that simple rule to our back-test, we run it on an at-the-money straddle: RETURNS If we did this long at-the-money (also called '50-delta') straddle in GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) over the last three-years but only held it before earnings we get these results: Long At-the-Money Straddle * Monthly Options * Back-test length: three-years * Open 6-days Before Earnings * Close 1-day Before Earnings * Holding Period: 5-Days per Earnings Winning Trades: 5 Losing Trades: 8 Pre-Earnings Straddle Return: 21% Annualized Return: 118% (Here is the back-test link.) We see a 21% return, testing this over the last 13 earnings dates in GoPro Inc. That's a total of just 65 days (5 days for each earnings date, over 13 earnings dates). That's a annualized rate of 118%. We can also see that this strategy hasn't been a winner all the time, rather it has won 5 times and lost 8 times, for a 38% win-rate and again, that 21% return in less than two-full months of trading. This approach has also been a winner over the last two-years -- in fact, it has been even better than the last three-years. Long At-the-Money Straddle * Monthly Options * Back-test length: two-years * Open 6-days Before Earnings * Close 1-day Before Earnings * Holding Period: 5-Days per Earnings Winning Trades: 4 Losing Trades: 4 Pre-Earnings Straddle Return: 43% Annualized Return: 326% MORE TO IT THAN MEETS THE EYE While this strategy is benefiting from the implied volatility rise into earnings, what it's really doing is far more intelligent. The option prices for the at-the-money straddle will show very little time decay over this 5-day period, so what this strategy really does is buy "five days" of potential stock movement with what is actually fairly small downside risk. WHAT HAPPENED This is it -- this is how people profit from the option market. A few clicks of preparation makes all the difference in the world. To see how to do this for any stock we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. Back-test Link

Here is the long tutorial for custom earnings

Yep. Exactly what we have in the longer tutorial. A trader needs to toggle between 0 and 1 based on timing of earnings.

How the Pre-Earnings Straddle Scalp Won in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:REGN) Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:REGN) : The Wonderful Secret to Options Trading Before Earnings Date Published: 2017-05-11 PREFACE Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc stock has been as high as $605 and as low as $325 over the last two-years. The stock moves abruptly in short-time periods and earnings turn into volatile events. Clever option trading right before earnings announcements in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc that benefits from the rising implied volatility but avoids the risk into the actual earnings release and also avoids any kind of stock direction risk has been a monster winner over the last 2-years. This approach has returned 26.5% with a total holding period of just 40 days, or a annualized rate of 242%. Now that's worth looking into. STORY Everyone knows that the day of an earnings announcement is a risky event for a stock. The question is if there is a way to profit from this known volatility rise. It turns out, that over the long-run, for stocks with certain tendencies like Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:REGN) the answer is actually, yes. THE IDEA The goal, is two-fold: (i) to benefit from that known implied volatility rise, and (ii) to own the straddle for a very short period of time when the stock might move 'a lot,' but taking no earnings bets. If either of those two phenomena occur, there's a very good chance this wins, if neither occur, the amount risked is normally quite small. Here is the setup: We are testing opening the position 6 days before earnings and then closing the position 1 day before earnings. This is not making any earnings bet. This is not making any stock direction bet. Once we apply that simple rule to our back-test, we run it on an at-the-money straddle: RETURNS If we did this long at-the-money (also called '50-delta') straddle in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:REGN) over the last two-years but only held it before earnings we get these results: Long At-the-Money Straddle * Monthly Options * Back-test length: two-years * Open 6-days Before Earnings * Close 1-day Before Earnings * Holding Period: 5-Days per Earnings Winning Trades: 5 Losing Trades: 3 Pre-Earnings Straddle Return: 26.5% Annualized Return: 242% (Here is the backtest link.) We see a 26.5% return, testing this over the last 8 earnings dates in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. That's a total of just 40 days (5 days for each earnings date, over 8 earnings dates). That's a annualized rate of 242%. We can also see that this strategy hasn't been a winner all the time, rather it has won 5 times and lost 3 times, for a 63% win-rate. As important as the win-rate is that the average win was $1,780 and the average loss was $847 (using a 5-lot straddle). When a strategy wins more often than it loses, and the average of a winning trade is actually larger in dollars than the average losing trade, you end up with these outsized gains. MORE TO IT THAN MEETS THE EYE While this strategy is benefiting from the implied volatility rise into earnings, what it's really doing is far more intelligent. The option prices for the at-the-money straddle will show very little time decay over this 5-day period, so what this strategy really does is buy "five days" of potential stock movement with what is actually fairly small downside risk. WHAT HAPPENED This is it -- this is how people profit from the option market. A few clicks of preparation makes all the difference in the world. To see how to do this for any stock we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.

Trading options pre-earnings -- 1 minute 25 second video. (example: $AAPL) As a Steady Options member, you can get a promotional price, here: Try the Back-tester

Trading options pre-earnings -- 1 minute 25 second video. (example: $AAPL) As a Steady Options member, you can get a promotional price, here: Try the Back-tester