kDiqq 9 Report post Posted January 29, 2017 A friend had sent me this story on a guy who doesn't know how to manage money. Should be an exciting week for him! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 7,499 Report post Posted January 29, 2017 Thanks for sharing. I guess some people never learn. I hope nobody on this forum is going to follow this guy.. Because if he is wrong, he will lose 100% of his account. But I guess this is not something new for him.. btw, according the options market, AAPL is expected to move around $4 after earnings. And just to clarify: the trade did not cost nothing like he claims. The trade costs about 250k in margin, which what he will lose if he is wrong. even if it stays where it is ($122) he will lose around $60,000, and $30,000 for each $1 AAPL goes above $122. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kDiqq 9 Report post Posted January 29, 2017 Yeah, I was reading the comments on the original thread he started. No one is convinced he will find success. It seems his strategies are mostly based on 'feeling'. Which, while that does sometimes yield returns, I wouldn't consider a gut feeling something worth betting your account on. He also has a website where he publishes investment advice and runs a blog. It's full of the same stuff. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Optrader 118 Report post Posted January 31, 2017 The guy just wants to go all out and make 2.5 m on 250k investment return of 1000% risk is 100% the only disadvantage i see is calls are trading cheap due to dividend. So he is selling cheap spreads and buying expensive puts. if he was bullish things would have been favourable to sell puts and buy cheap call spreads. lets see but i do believe the iv is very cheap and potential for big move is there. i see good opportunity for a ric with iv so low Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 7,499 Report post Posted January 31, 2017 Risk reward doesn't tell the whole picture. The question is what is the probability to realize the 1000%? You can structure any trade with 1:10 risk reward, but those trades will have very low probability of success. in order for him to make 2.5M the stock has to go down 18%. Do you know how many times AAPL went down 18% after earnings since it went public? ZERO. It went down more than 10% only 6 times. Nothing wrong to make a low probability bet which is basically a lottery ticket if you have high conviction. The problem is he is betting his whole account on this trade. Here is a bet that I'm willing to make: if he succeeds, he will continue trading, despite him swearing to stop. He will continue till all the money is gone. 1 4REAL reacted to this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kDiqq 9 Report post Posted January 31, 2017 If anyone is interested, this guy is even live streaming the event! https://www.youtube.com/c/FSComeau/live As of yesterday, he was up about 10%, but he said he plans to hold through earnings. It will be interesting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Optrader 118 Report post Posted January 31, 2017 The topic and trade is over such is the reality of betting farm on a post earnings play. glad i did not play. 250k was lot of money . instead of looking at 2 mil loss . one should look at what you have and be happy that you have more than many other poor people. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 7,499 Report post Posted February 1, 2017 "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cuegis 683 Report post Posted February 1, 2017 I wonder if this guy is just playing us! It really sounds like something that was written by a "writer". It is too perfectly nuanced. I'm just a little bit skeptical! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kDiqq 9 Report post Posted February 1, 2017 I actually watched the live stream. It was... weird. So he was live streaming himself *and* a portion of his IB account. Martin Shkreli of all people got involved and during this guys live stream, a pop-up opened in IB that revealed his account number. It was DUxxxxx.. Some numbers I can't remember. So Martin Shkreli ended up calling IB and asked what the 'D' meant in front of the account number and it turns out it meant demo. Paper account. The stream went down after that. The guy claims he replicated the trades in a paper account so that there was no risk of his real acct being shown, other folks call BS. Either way, was a fun ride. Made my news wire in TOS several times haha! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cuegis 683 Report post Posted February 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, kDiqq said: I actually watched the live stream. It was... weird. So he was live streaming himself *and* a portion of his IB account. Martin Shkreli of all people got involved and during this guys live stream, a pop-up opened in IB that revealed his account number. It was DUxxxxx.. Some numbers I can't remember. So Martin Shkreli ended up calling IB and asked what the 'D' meant in front of the account number and it turns out it meant demo. Paper account. The stream went down after that. The guy claims he replicated the trades in a paper account so that there was no risk of his real acct being shown, other folks call BS. Either way, was a fun ride. Made my news wire in TOS several times haha! You are right. IB ("live") accounts begin with a "U", as far as I know....maybe they have expanded. After reading your post , I feel even more convinced the guy is just out to have a good time and create a character and a story. I mean look at how much time and effort he put into this project! Maybe it was a project for school. About the media and the whole "Fake News" phenomenon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 7,499 Report post Posted February 1, 2017 Well, I hope nobody had the temptation to follow him..the trade is currently down $190k (80%). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cuegis 683 Report post Posted February 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Kim said: Well, I hope nobody had the temptation to follow him..the trade is currently down $180k (75%). Actually, the story is SO perfect that if we just did the exact opposite of what he said....we would be in good shape! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kDiqq 9 Report post Posted February 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, cuegis said: Actually, the story is SO perfect that if we just did the exact opposite of what he said....we would be in good shape! Apparently, this guy is so consistently bad at trading, folks are saying following his inverse is a really reliable strategy haha! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
