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sounds like all would be useful, so fill me in on where you are, thanks
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"Another factor many do not consider is the impact of using leverage. The amount of leverage does matter and impacts risk of the portfolio. Leveraged Anchor performs the worst in markets that are flat for long periods of time or that decline slowly in small amounts. If the market slowly bleeds (1%-3%) over a three-week period, the strategy takes small losses on the short puts, without actually gaining on the long puts." can you give some examples of the slow sideways bleed and the performance during that period?
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Chartaffair.com - RV Charts & Backtesting for Steady Options
seotrader replied to Christof+'s topic in Promotions and Tools
@Christof+ Hey Christof, any reason why META is missing some of the 2024 earnings? Thanks -
On the left the symbols are ordered by earning dates, on the right it is ordered by when it was confirmed (or at least when my system detects a confirmation).
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On the Earnings Feed, what is the difference between the two columns? Some stocks, like META, appear in both columns. Thank you.
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Which one are you interested in? Some of them are already supported in some way.
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has any progress been made on these enhancements?
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aside from the technical issues, I would have to shave the price by a dollar or more to get a fill - so if the commissions at my other brokers is .50 or less, what's the point of using Tradier?
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I'd love to hear more on what didn't work and how long ago this was. Would you be able to shed more light on your experience? I've been strongly contemplating moving over due to the low commissions, and strong API trading support is a must have for me.
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Predicting Probabilities in Options Trading: A Deep Dive into Advanced Methods
Romuald posted a article in SteadyOptions Trading Blog
While the past cannot guarantee future outcomes, it remains our most reliable resource for understanding market behavior. Previously, I outlined how Monte Carlo simulations can be used to estimate these probabilities. But relying solely on one method is limiting. Diversifying the ways we calculate probabilities adds robustness to the analysis. In this article, I will delve deeply into three additional methods for calculating probabilities: Hidden Markov Models (HMM), seasonality-based probabilities, and implied probabilities derived from options prices. Each method has distinct advantages and complements the Monte Carlo approach, providing a comprehensive framework for assessing Credit Put Spreads. 1. Hidden Markov Models (HMM): Unveiling Hidden Market Dynamics Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are a sophisticated machine learning technique designed to analyze time-series data. They operate on the assumption that observed data (e.g., ticker prices) are generated by an underlying set of "hidden states" that cannot be directly observed. These states represent distinct market conditions, such as bullish trends, bearish trends, or periods of low volatility. How HMM Works Defining Observations and States: The observed data in this context are the historical closing prices of the ticker. The hidden states are abstract conditions influencing price movements. For example: State 1 (Bullish): Higher probabilities of upward price movements. State 2 (Bearish): Higher probabilities of downward price movements. State 3 (Neutral): Limited price movement or consolidation. Training the Model: The HMM is trained on historical price data to learn the transition probabilities between states and the likelihood of observing specific price changes within each state. For example, the model might learn that a bullish state is likely to transition to a neutral state 30% of the time, and remain bullish 70% of the time. Making Predictions: Once trained, the HMM can estimate the current state of the market and use this information to predict future price movements. It calculates the probability of the ticker being above a specific threshold on a given date by analyzing likely state transitions and their associated price changes. Advantages of HMM in Options Trading Pattern Recognition: HMM excels at identifying non-linear patterns in price movements, which are often overlooked by simpler models. Dynamic Analysis: Unlike static models, HMM adapts to changing market conditions by incorporating state transitions. Probability Estimation: For a Credit Put Spread, HMM provides a probabilistic measure of whether the underlying will remain above the short strike based on historical market behavior. By capturing hidden dynamics, HMM offers a more nuanced view of market probabilities, making it a valuable tool for assessing risk and reward in Credit Put Spreads. 2. Seasonality-Based Probabilities: Unlocking Historical Patterns Seasonality refers to recurring patterns in price movements influenced by factors such as economic cycles, investor behavior, or external events. In options trading, seasonality-based probabilities quantify how often a ticker's price has exceeded a certain percentage of its current value over a specific time horizon. How to Calculate Seasonality-Based Probabilities Define the Threshold: The threshold is expressed as a percentage relative to the current price (e.g., -2%, +0%, +2%). This normalization ensures the probability calculation is independent of the absolute price level. Analyze Historical Data: For a given holding period (e.g., 30 days), calculate the percentage change in price for each historical observation. Example: If the current price is $100, and the threshold is +2%, count how often the price exceeded $102 after 30 days in the historical data. Aggregate the Results: Divide the number of times the threshold was exceeded by the total number of observations to calculate the probability. Example: If the price exceeded the threshold in 70 out of 100 instances, the probability is 70%. Applications in Credit Put Spreads Seasonality-based probabilities answer the question: "In similar conditions, how often has this ticker remained above the breakeven?" This approach is particularly useful for ETFs, which often exhibit more predictable patterns than individual stocks. For example, certain sectors might perform better during specific times of the year, providing an additional layer of insight. Limitations to Consider Seasonality probabilities rely entirely on historical data and assume that past patterns will persist. While this is often true for ETFs, it may be less reliable for individual stocks or during periods of market disruption. 3. Implied Probabilities from Options Prices: Extracting Market Sentiment Options prices are more than just numbers; they encapsulate the collective beliefs of market participants about future price movements. By analyzing the prices of puts and calls across various strikes for a given expiration date, we can derive the implied probabilities of the ticker being in specific price ranges. Steps to Calculate Implied Probabilities Collect Options Data: Obtain the bid-ask prices for puts and calls at different strike prices for the desired expiration date. Calculate Implied Volatility: Use the options prices to derive the implied volatility (IV) for each strike. IV reflects the market's expectations of future price volatility. Estimate Probabilities: For each strike, calculate the probability of the ticker being at or above that level by using IV and the Black-Scholes model (or similar methods). The probabilities are then aggregated to construct a distribution of expected prices at expiration. Why Implied Probabilities Matter Market Consensus: Implied probabilities reflect what the market "thinks" about the future, offering a forward-looking perspective. Dynamic Adjustments: Unlike historical methods, implied probabilities adapt in real-time to changes in market sentiment, such as news events or macroeconomic data. Application to Credit Put Spreads For a Credit Put Spread, implied probabilities can answer questions such as: "What is the market-implied likelihood that the ticker will remain above the short strike?" This insight helps traders align their strategies with prevailing market sentiment. Conclusion By integrating these three methods—Hidden Markov Models, seasonality-based probabilities, and implied probabilities from options prices—into my existing Monte Carlo framework, I’ve developed a robust system for evaluating Credit Put Spreads. This approach enables a comprehensive analysis of Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Credit Put Spreads among a selection of ETFs, filtering for: Gain/loss ratios within specific thresholds, Expiration dates within a defined range, A minimum credit of $0.50. The result is what I like to call a “stellar map” of selected spreads: accompanied by a summary table: These tools provide clarity and actionable insights, helping traders identify the best trades—those offering the highest probability of success while maximizing potential returns relative to risk. Looking ahead, the next step will involve calculating the expected value ($EV) of these trades, combining probabilities and potential outcomes to further refine the selection process. The ultimate goal remains the same: to stack the odds in our favor—not by predicting exact prices, but by estimating probabilities with precision and rigor. Stay tuned as I continue refining these methods and expanding their applications! -
I've had two Tradier accounts and closed them both - it just wasn't worth it...
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Performance Dissected Check out the Performance page to see the full results. Please note that those results are based on real fills, not hypothetical performance, and exclude commissions, so your actual results will be lower, depending on the broker and number of trades. Please read 2024 Year End Performance By Trade Type for full analysis of our 2024 performance. We have extensive discussions about brokers and commissions on the Forum (like this one) and help members to select the best broker. The 116% annual return was pretty typical, compared to our long term averages. We are very pleased with this return. We continue delivering the most consistent and stable performance 13 years in a row! It's nice to call a 116% return "typical". And the beauty of our trading philosophy is having different strategies in our model portfolio that compliment each other. As I mentioned in one of the discussion topics, our performance reporting is very conservative. We rarely have more than 5 trades open at the same time, but with 5 trades open, you are basically only 50% invested. If you made 10% on the invested capital, we would report as 5% return on the total account. No service is doing it, but this is the only correct way to do it. But it also means that members can invest more than 10% per trade on trades that are more conservative and more liquid. Also there are tons of unofficial trades that don't make it to the official portfolio due to their size.being too large for 10k portfolio. If we reported performance like most other services do (return on investment and not on the whole portfolio), our reported performance would be 300%+. More details: How We Calculate Returns? Thank you again to everyone for their support, and of course special thanks to our contributors @Yowster @krisbee @TrustyJules @cwelsh and @Romuald After 13 years in business, SteadyOptions maintains its position as the most stable and consistent options trading service, with 128.8% Compounded Annual Growth Rate. We proved again that we can make money in any market. As one of our members mentioned: "I would rate the 3% profit for March 2020 as even MORE successful than the 25% profits for Jan/Feb. If someone can make a profit in a month when there was total carnage in the markets, then that shows resilience and security in the trading strategies. It shows that even during a black swan event, the system works, and the account will not be blown." Our strategies SteadyOptions uses a mix of non-directional strategies: earnings plays, Long Straddle, Long Strangle, Calendar Spread, Bitterly, Iron Condor, etc. We constantly adding new strategies to our arsenal, based on different market conditions. SO model portfolio is not designed for speculative trades although we might do some in the speculative forum. SO is not a get-rich-quick-without-efforts kind of newsletter. I'm a big fan of the "slow and steady" approach. We aim for many singles instead of a few homeruns. My first goal is capital preservation instead of doubling your account. Think about the risk first. If you take care of the risk, the profits will come. What makes SO different? We use a total portfolio approach for performance reporting. This approach reflects the growth of the entire account, not just what was at risk. We balance the portfolio in terms of options Greeks. SteadyOptions provides a complete portfolio solution. We trade a variety of non-directional strategies balancing each other. You can allocate 60-70% of your options account to our strategies and still sleep well at night. Our performance is based on real fills. Each trade alert comes with a screenshot of our broker fills. We put our money where our mouth is. Our performance reporting is completely transparent. All trades are listed on the performance page, with the exact entry/exit dates and P/L percentage. It is not a coincidence that SteadyOptions is ranked #1 out of 723 Newsletters on Investimonials, a financial product review site. The reviewers especially mention our honesty and transparency, and also tremendous value of our trading community. We place a lot of emphasis on options education. There is a dedicated forum where every trade is discussed before the trade is placed. We discuss different strategies and potential trades. Unlike most other services that just send the trade alerts, our members understand the rationale behind the trades and not just blindly follow the alerts. SO actually helps members to become better traders. Other services In addition to SteadyOptions, we offer the following services: Anchor Trades - Stocks/ETFs hedged with options for conservative long term investors. Simple Spreads - simple spread strategies like diagonal spreads and vertical spreads. Steady Collars - our version of lower risk collar trades SteadyVIX - Volatility based trades. SteadyYields - Treasures trading We offer all services bundle at $3,100 per year. This represents up to 63% discount compared to individual services rates and you will be grandfathered at this rate as long as you keep your subscription active. Details on the subscription page. More bundles are available - click here for details. You can also get the yearly bundle with one month trial at $100. Subscribing to all services provides excellent diversification since those services have low correlation. We also offer Managed Accounts for Anchor Trades. Summary 2024 was another excellent year for our members. We are very pleased with our performance. SteadyOptions is now 11 years old. We’ve come a long way since we started. We are now recognized as: #1 Ranked Newsletter on Investimonials Top Rated Newsletter on Stockgumshoe Steady Options Review: In-Depth Analysis Top 10 Option Trading Blogs by Options Trading IQ Top 4 Options Newsletters by Benzinga Top 40 Options Trading Blogs by Feedspot Top 15 Trading Forums by Feedspot Top 20 Trading Forums by Robust Trader Top Twitter Accounts to Follow by Options Trading IQ I see the community as the best part of our service. We have the best and most engaged options trading community in the world. We now have over 10,000 registered members from over 50 counties. Our members posted over 190,000 posts in the last 13 years. Those facts show you the tremendous added value of our trading community. I want to thank each of you who’ve joined us and supported us. We continue to strive to be the best community of options traders and continuously improve and enhance our services. Let me finish with my favorite quote from Michael Covel: "Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between." If you are not a member and interested to join, you can click here to join our winning team. When you join SteadyOptions, we will share with you all we know about options. We will never try to sell you any additional "proprietary systems", training, webinars etc. All our "secrets" are included in your monthly fee.
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I used their API in the past but wasn’t satisfied for my automated trading. Anyone have good experience with them ?
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FYI, I'm making a change to make Thursday 09 Jan 2025 a holiday (non trading day), see https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=55826
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Tradier is the lowest though you absolutely need Tradehawk with it - Tasty Works is less expensive than IB and has a good interface. Both work for European citizens.
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Hi, I've been trading with IB for a few years and wanted to know if you guys have some recommendation for lower commission broker ? Thx
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I am quite new to SO, and I already have a MarketChameleon account. I read, that you guys mainly use VolHQ and ChartAffair, and I will test them, too. Or does anybody know, if MarketChameleon can also be used for RV and the calendar, double diagonal etc. strategies? Thank you and Happy New Year - Marco
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Selling Puts: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
helloworld commented on Reel Ken's article in SteadyOptions Trading Blog
but "how did "ATM Hold" do in bear markets compared to those two? " I was wondering about this too... -
As has become my end of year tradition, I’ve broken down the Steady Options 2024 trade performance by trade type. Numbers were taken directly from the data in the Performance screen (plus some recently closed trades). Here’s are this year’s stats along with some comments from my perspective. Where applicable, I added totals from prior years for comparison. 2024 was a year where market volatility was calm with VIX under 20 for the first half of the year. The second half of the year turned more volatile with several VIX spikes into the 20’s and beyond, along with a general run-up into the election and a decline afterwards. So, we had both calm periods and more volatile periods. Pre-Earnings Calendars 54 Trades – 43 win, 10 loss,1 break-even (81% win) – Average Gain +12.13% 2023: 65 trades (85% win) – Average Gain +9.56% 2022: 11 trades (64% win) – Average Loss -9.55% 2021: 110 trades (79% win) – Average Gain +12.82% 2020: 33 trades (85% win) – Average Gain +21.97% 2019: 54 trades (65% win) – Average Gain +9.27% 2018: 40 trades (78% win) – Average Gain +9.61% 2017: 31 trades (84% win) – Average Gain +13.81% 2016: 44 trades (80% win) - Average Gain +15.07% 2015: 51 trades (80% win) – Average Gain +12.67% 2014: 48 trades (71% win) – Average Gain +13.80% 2013: 24 trades (88% win) – Average Gain +20.60% Comments: We were able to a good number of calendar trades this year, the majority of which occurred during the calmer period of the year when VIX was lower. Very good overall winning percentage and average gain per trade. We avoided big losses that can sometimes happen when stock prices make very large moves. Earnings calendars continue to be a core SO strategy. Straddles/Strangles 57 Trades - 41 win, 15 loss, 1 break-even (73% win) – Average Gain +4.72% Breaking down further by hedged and non-hedged: Non-Hedged – 38 win, 14 loss, 1 break-even (73% win), average gain +5.18% Hedged – 3 win, 1 loss (75% win), average gain +0.95% 2023: 166 trades (64% win) – Average Gain +1.65% 2022: 148 trades (71% win) – Average Gain +4.89% 2021: 129 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +3.27% 2020: 118 trades (67% win) – Average Gain +2.80% 2019: 106 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +3.58% 2018: 72 trades (83% win) – Average Gain +5.40% 2017: 77 trades (79% win) – Average Gain +5.02% 2016: 18 trades (72% win) – Average Gain +5.19% 2015: 44 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +2.61% 2014: 74 trades (62% win) – Average Gain +2.54% 2013: 104 trades (57% win) – Average Gain +1.35% Comments: Lower number of straddle/strangle trades compared to prior years, due primarily to introduction of double diagonal (DD) trades which will be discussed later. Overall winning percentage and average gain per trade were at the upper end of the range based on prior year performance. From a downside risk perspective, only 2 losses above 10%, with one larger loss on a hedged straddle that saw an RV drop orders of magnitude higher than prior cycles. 37% of trades hit 10% gain target, which is at the upper end of the range compared to prior years. Very low risk trades as it takes RV dropping much more than their prior cycle tendencies to be significant losers Double Diagonals DD trades were introduced this year with the goal of having performance similar to straddles/strangles – but have the ability for the trades to be open for much longer periods of time (up to 3 weeks prior to earnings) giving the stock more time to move but still have minimal downside risk. 52 Trades - 38 win, 14 loss (73% win) – Average Gain +4.86% Comments: High winning percentage, with roughly 3 of 4 trades being winners. All losing trades were under 10% losses, majority of losses were under 5%. So this is a very low risk trade type with minimal downside risk Average gain was at the upper end of the range compared with straddle/strangle results of prior years – so the goal of performance being similar to straddles/strangles was achieved. 35% of trades hit 10% gain target, which is at the upper end of the range compared to straddle/strangle trades in prior years. Other Trades Non-Earnings RICs: 4 win, 1 loss (80% win) – Average Gain +3.52%%. These non-earnings trades have higher downside risk if stock price doesn’t move. In this case the 1 loss needed 2 wins to compensate. Hedged ratios and BWBs: 4 win, 7 loss (36% win) – Average Loss -10.55%. These were hedged directional trades, a few oversized losses hurt the average. S&P500 addition date trade: 3 win, 1 loss (75% win) – Average Gain +3.28%. These trades play for stock price decline (or at least staying flat) after the S&P500 addition. The one loser hurt the average as all 3 gains were 10%+. We will likely do trades like things with future S&P500 stock additions. Other: A few successful index Iron Condors and the closure of one long-term UNG ratio diagonal for an oversized loss. Net result of these trades was basically break-even from a percentage gain/loss perspective. Summary 2024 Steady Options model portfolio was up around +118% for the year. This result was right around the average yearly return since SO’s inception. It’s good to be able to say that trades based on SO techniques had such a high return as “average”. As always, I’d like to highlight and thank the SO community. We continue to have a group of very smart people that seems to grow each year who share their ideas and knowledge – this is what makes SO great. Looking forward to 2025. 2023 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2022 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2021 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2020 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2019 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2018 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2017 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2016 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2015 Year End Performance by Trade Type
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Fixed
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Sorry i’m out of town until the new year and i tried to troubleshoot but it seems the issue is in the “only stocks with weekly options”. Somehow the website doesn’t retrieve that data properly. As a workaround, can you use this list? https://marketdata.theocc.com/weekly-options?action=download
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@Djtux Something is wrong with filtering "Only confirmed earnings dates" and "Only stocks with weekly options" in the scanner. when they are on it returns nothing. my scan is the widest possible with only min stock price set to 15 and no black or white lists. it worked great for about 2 years with the same setup until this weekend.
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OK, @Kim. I'll take your word that those are indeed the results so far under the new management... Thank you for responding!
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The service has been restarted in July. Those are the returns since July, and I can assure you that they are 100% accurate. You can find the previous return under discontinued strategies, link on the performance page.
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I have visited that page. I'm assuming those returns can't be accurate for the new manager of that strategy since he's only been doing the job for about 1/2 a year.... Those numbers can't possibly include the disaster that I was a victim of earlier this year...
