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Are all your tools oriented toward the bull side or do you have any tools that identify likely bearish trades as well?

Here is an extract of the interactive table showing best credit put spread options strategies (from Monte-Carlo simulations POV) for ETF's as seen from my web site math-trading.com :

Hi everyone, I have added a new tool to my math-trading.com website. It is a table showing the results of a scanner that computes the Probability of Profit (POP) for Credit Put Spreads options trading strategies on some ETF's (the most liquid in options) using Monte Carlo Simulations. The Monte Carlo Simulation runs thousands of individual stock price simulations and uses the data from these simulations to average out a POP number, using the Black&Scholes formula. Unlike other calculators, this new tool lets you is a scanner and tries different target profits (as a percentage of maximum profit that will trigger the position to close when it's reached in the simulation. Here's how it works: The algorithm scans: ETF tickers For each ticker: DTEs between 30 and 60 days For each expiration, it tries different deltas combinations: (0.45, 0.40), # Short delta = 45, Long delta = 40 (0.45, 0.35), # Short delta = 45, Long delta = 35 (0.40, 0.35), # Short delta = 40, Long delta = 35 (0.40, 0.30), # Short delta = 40, Long delta = 35 (0.35, 0.30) # Short delta = 35, Long delta = 30 ] For each Credit Put Spread, for each day between today and the expiration date, it performs 5,000 simulations of Monte Carlo and, for each of the 5,000 prices obtained, applies the Black & Scholes formula to estimate the price of the initially opened Credit Put Spread. When the GTC of 30%, 40%, and 50% is reached, it looks at the number of days it took to reach it. If it is not reached, the Credit Put Spread is considered lost. It thus calculates, for all simulations, a profit probability and an average day to close. Note, of course, that the IV is considered constant and equal to the value when the Credit Put Spread was opened. The stock price volatility is equal to the implied volatility and remains constant. It makes the following assumptions for its simulations : Geometric Brownian Motion is used to model the stock price using Monte-Carlo simulations, Risk-free interest rates remain constant, The Black-Scholes Model is used to price options contracts, Dividend yield is not considered, Commissions are not considered, Assignment risks are not considered, Earnings date and stock splits are not considered, Of course, not all of these assumptions are true in real life and so there are limitations to this approach. For example, it's highly unlikely that the stock price volatility remains constant for several days. Thus, one should take these results with a grain of salt. Here are the results for yesterday 2025-08-20: On that image I have applied the filters : Gain/Loss min = 0.50, GTC/Loss min = 0.25 and Avg DTC (Day to Close) max = 10 : it means that I want the scanner to select the trades that have reached their GTC within the 10 days after the opening of the trade : this filter is because it is better to close these kind of trades once we get within a 2 weeks of expiration because gamma risk gets much higher closer to expiration. Of course you can click on each columns to sort by ascending / descending order. The computation process itself is very long, given that 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations must be carried out for every day over the 5 last years (for the history of Monte-Carlo simulations), for all tickers, for different combos of Deltas and different expiration dates. On my powerful PC, this takes about 3 hours, without running anything else. Therefore, it is only possible, on math-trading.com, to put the final results table every day. You can see in the image that I have put very interesting filters so that everyone can choose according to their wishes. I will put a complete user guide and deeper explanations in the coming days but, in the footer of the table, you already have a brief description of the different terms ("dictionary of terms"). I hope you all find this tool useful! In preparation : a new tool for calculating the Probability of Profit (POP) and the Average Day to Close for a lot of options trading strategies using Monte Carlo Simulations! Stay tuned! Romuald

Hi everyone, As some of you already know, I’m not only a fellow Steady Options member but also a physicist who loves coding Python tools to help me make better trading decisions—always grounded in probabilities and statistics. I’m excited to share that I’ve put some of these tools online at math-trading.com. One of the main ones available right now is my Monte Carlo simulation tool. Pricing: $39/month or $359/year (before applying the coupon). Special for SO members: you get 15% off all subscriptions until December 31, 2025. And here’s the bonus—new tools I’m currently developing (including a Monte Carlo + Credit Put Spread combo) will be added over time without any price increase. Feel free to check them out, and if you have any questions or ideas, just reach out through the math-trading.com website. Happy trading—and thanks for your trust! Romuald

If you used the New content or All activity as mentioned before, you would see this: Website Conversion issues - August 2025 We are having some issues since the upgrade and working to fix them. Viewing All activity is always the best option when in doubt.

Since 1-2 days ago, I haven't been receiving any notification emails from SO. (For instance, I missed the DELL trade today, among other unofficial trades.) I am still investigating the problem. Does anyone have a clue? Thanks!

Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between - Michael Covel I keep repeating this quote again and again, just look at latest Simple Spreads performance. Every drawdown in S&P 500 was followed by a monster rally (it is now up over 30% from its April lows in just 3 months). Every time SO was "underperforming" for a few months, was following by a monster year.

Yes, IV still reflects future expectations. But for many stocks, those future expectations have been very different from the previous cycles. Macro events like tariffs can add or remove uncertainty to the global markets. This is why VIX jumped to 30+ when Trump first announced the tariffs, and this is why it kept going down gradually when the markets realized that things are not as bad as initially thought. And now it's back to the mid teens after few major deals have been announced. But even when this macro uncertainty is removed (or significantly reduced), there is still specific event risk like earnings. In case of SOFI, all previous cycles priced at least 14-15% move. So why this cycle would price only 10% move, even with reduced macro risk? The earnings are still there. And btw, if you look at the morning of earnings, SOFI moved 17% at the open (it retreated later, but this is not the point). So the market was very wrong in pricing earnings so low. Also, when you enter a straddle during periods of high VIX and VIX goes down during the life of the straddle, it has a negative effect on the straddle price. This kind of "mispricing" happened a lot in the last few months, and this was the main challenge.

I just received this email addressing some issues SO was facing in the past. I’m not a member anymore but I was and I’m familiar with the strategies. I’m a vol trader since over 20 years so here my 5 cents. There is no fundamental change in volatility. Volatility is behaving as it always does. Volatility reflects the future expectation of movement of an underlying during a certain time frame. One important driver of Volatility are events. The bread and butter of SO, earnings events. Since Trump took office, single stock volatility also incorporates a lot of Macro Event vol and there are a lot more than normal. Best example is the one you used: SOFI. Expiry is 1st of August. Thats Trump’s Tarif deadline and that’s something effecting all businesses. Hence to the normal earnings expectations you got additional macro risk that is specifically fixed on one date. But Trump started taking some expectations out of the deadline by announcing the sending out of letters with deals about two weeks ago and about one week ago announcement of a deal with Japan and on Monday the deal with EU. Hence 1st of August premium got priced out after several parts of the big event got communicated down the road. Thats like pre earning releases. There are a lot of these Macro Events around. Hence, if you trade volatility, you need to be aware of these (extra)events and what the additional premium for these events are on top of the normal micro events. It’s ok trading on backtesting but you need to be aware of the future, hence if the future has addition risk that isn’t replicate in past comparisons. I can clearly say, the SO edge isn’t lost, you just need to be aware what expiry vols you are buying/selling and what (additional) risk they incorporate.

Great analysis, and with candor and transparency, too. Thank, Kim. The comment about directional trades did resonate with me, as I have been watching them from the sidelines, or had modified my own trade away from the official. Directional trades probably have their place in a basket of strategies. However when they deviate from the core thesis, it's a red flag for me. Many such trades started out delta positive right off the bat, with no (or not enough) room for error - just the hope that the stock would revert if it went south (pun intended). Somewhere in my basket of wisecracks is a saying that goes "Hope is not a strategy". In such cases I tended to stick with the original thesis, which worked better, or at least add a simple hedge - one that is understandable by the lay person - kind of like like we do with our Double Diagonals, where a calendar is added to mitigate the non-movement of the stock. Taking the loss on a bad trade and moving on is another thing that traders tend to postpone, and then find themselves in trouble. The persistent red values in the daily trade log that present themselves hour after hour and day after day tend to make traders obsess over recovering from them which takes away time from finding potentially successful new trades. Someone had mentioned a while ago, and I agree whole-heartedly, that there is a psychological cost to staring at ugly red losses on a continuous basis. I personally tried this "different" discipline earlier - that is, mostly sticking to the defined max loss and/or profit targets - and my trading became more fulfilling, the losses smaller in number and value, and profitable trades more numerous. Even the moments of depression were fleeting when the closed losing trades were put aside in the cumulative trade log, leaving the active log looking a whole lot healthier. The wonderful thing about SO is the thinking, back-testing, discussion and evolution that have formed all the core strategies, and this time is no exception, I'm sure.

I always like to use the analogy of the whole stock market. The stock market indexes produce average return of 10-12%, but that included several drawdowns of 20-30%. Some of those drawdowns lasted months or even years. Nothing goes up in a straight line. So, if you joined the stock market based on a long time return of 10-12%, would you quit if you experienced a 30% drawdown? If the answer is yes, then the stock market is not for you. If the answer is no, then SO is no different. We all would like all our trades to be winners, but we know this is not possible. We know some of the trades will be losers. Many traders think that if a trade has lost money, it was a bad trade. They try to identify what errors they made that lead to losses. Why? "Because I lost money! So surely I have made a mistake somewhere?” Was it the right conclusion? Is any losing trade necessarily a bad trade? The answer is no. No matter how well he executed his trade, there will be losing trades because we are playing a probability game. Trading is a business based on probability. And probability means that sometimes we get what we want, sometimes we don't. And that's the nature of this business. The sooner we accept this, the better we can operate it as a business. To put things in perspective, our model portfolio was up 10% in the first half of 2025. We had few bad trades in July and those put us back few percentage points. While those returns are way lower than expected, they are not the end of the world. We will refine our strategies going forward and I encourage everyone to look at the big picture. It is important to note that consistency in trading is important rather than changing everything when you get an adverse movement. Adaptation rather than revolution over time is the right way to go. Have our strategies lost their edge? This question has been asked many times over the years, basically every time we have a period of dull returns, and the answer each time has been "no, they have not". I believe this time is no different. Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between - Michael Covel Since inception we had 13 months that produced 20%+ returns, and over 30 months that produced 10-20% returns. To win you've got to stay in the game. Our strategies worked very well for us for over a decade, and we have full confidence that they will continue working in the future. Those who have the patience will be greatly rewarded, like in the last 13 years. Members who have been with us from the very beginning know it very well.

This is what we posted on SOFI discussion topic: SOFI is a good example why many of our trades have not been performing well this year. Take a look at the RV chart: 2024 SOFI trades 2023 SOFI trades Strangle (11.10%) 2022 SOFI trades You can see how low RV was this cycle compared to previous cycles. It was already very low when we entered, and it became even lower in the last 2 days. Remember: we are trading probabilities. Nothing is certain in the stock market, but playing probabilities works well in the long term. As you can see, we trade the odds based on prior cycle behaviors and our losing trades have been opened with good analysis. Nothing has changed with this - but the market dynamics has.

To provide a few examples to show how our strategies have zero correlation with the markets: Apr.2024: S&P 500 -4.2% SteadyOptions +4.6% Dec.2022: S&P 500 -5.9% SteadyOptions +2.9% Sep.2022: S&P 500 -9.3% SteadyOptions +1.7% Apr.2022: S&P 500 -8.8% SteadyOptions +4.8% Jan.2022: S&P 500 -5.3% SteadyOptions +5.7% Mar.2020: S&P 500 -12.4%, SteadyOptions +3.3% Feb.2020: S&P 500 -8.2%, SteadyOptions +26.6% Dec.2018: S&P 500 -9.2%, SteadyOptions +17.3% Feb.2018: S&P 500 -3.9%, SteadyOptions +3.7% Jan.2016: S&P 500 -5.0%, SteadyOptions +10.6% Aug.2015: S&P 500 -6.3%, SteadyOptions +11.7% Jan.2014: S&P 500 -3.6%, SteadyOptions +22.9% In 2022, S&P 500 was down 18.2% while SteadyOptions was up 90.5%. As one of our members mentioned in 2020 during the Covid market meltdown: "I would rate the 3% profit for March as even MORE successful than the 25% profits for Jan/Feb. If someone can make a profit in a month when there was total carnage in the markets, then that shows resilience and security in the trading strategies. It shows that even during a black swan event, the system works, and the account will not be blown." To provide some perspective, we already had periods of sideways returns and drawdowns in the past, followed by periods of outsized returns. Traders should think in terms of years and decades instead of weeks and months.

In the name of full transparency, I would like to address some issues regarding SteadyOptions recent performance. I will separate the analysis into several separate posts. Our performance in the recent months is not in line with our long term returns, as everyone can see on the performance page. The main reasons for the recent underperformance: We are struggling with a change in the fundamental behavior of volatility at the moment. Our trades rely on RV and therefore also IV and this has not been acting as expected. Periods of extended VIX decline have always been some of our worst performers. The main problem now is that we have been in a long period of VIX decline that’s been going for months - there have been a few spikes but in general VIX has gone from 30+ to the 20’s to the mid teens (and making things worse is many periods of minimal stock price movement during this timeframe). Our core trades do well when volatility is stable or rises. When volatility started to drop, it created some large percentage losers on a few trades that had an oversized negative impact on the portfolio performance. We had much less trades in 2025, which made the impact of those larger losses bigger. We had less trades because some options became very expensive, so it became difficult for many trades to fit into a $1K allocation, and for many stocks with moderate liquidity in normal times, now had less liquidity and very wide bid/ask spreads. This made them much more risky to use for options trades as slippage was a big concern. We used some directional trades, and the stocks did not follow historical patterns in those trades. When a directional trade goes against you, losses can grow very quickly. This is what happened with TTD, XYZ, KO, FL etc. Some of the non directional trades also experienced outsized losses. We will reduce the number of directional trades going forward. We used less calendars than usual because many of them were way too expensive compared to previous cycles. Now with VIX in the mid teens, we expect to trade more calendars, which is one of our best performing strategies. We are having extensive internal discussions on how to adapt to the current environment. Our strategies are designed to make money in any market. They are not guaranteed to make money, but our long term objectives are still in place. No strategy works all the time. There’s no room for ‘never’ or ‘always’ in the financial markets.

A move that will likely help those of you with smaller accounts, it seems PDT minimum account value is about to be reduced to 2K rather than 25K. Timing remains uncertain however. https://www.tradingview.com/news/financemagnates:723d87023094b:0-the-25k-rule-that-s-blocking-millions-from-day-trading-is-about-to-change/

@Djtux Is there anyway a user can check what is the source of the earnings date confirmation? In case of GE, it was showing July 22,2025 BMO as Confirmed Earnings Date in 1 of the sources a few days ago., Now the date changed, don't know when it did change. It would be very useful for the user to know the source of the confirmation, is it from the company's website, or third party etc. Thanks Adding @krisbee@Yowster, if they have came across such issue earlier.

@Djtux might be user error at my end but I am not seeing any RV values for yesterday (July 7) ... maybe the holiday weekend threw things off .... here is today's META put calender as an example

Hi @Djtux it seems that the closest ATM strike is not taken. Is that the intention? Or do you determine ATM by delta?

hi @Christof+ thanks for making such amazing tool! can you make a video demonstration of https://www.chartaffair.com/ so people can better understand all the functionality of your website？Thanks! BTW: I am already a paid member of your website. But still feel like I can get more value from your video demonstration.

I guess it depends how you spend your screen time..

I used to think more screen time meant better results, but scaling back actually improved my performance—less noise, fewer impulsive trades, and more focus on quality setups.

For NKE it’s because we are too close to the expiry for this week due to one of the advanced settings that requires 4 days minimum between today and the expiry. The desktop app is not supported anymore, it wasn’t great anyway. I believe there were python code that was on the SO forum that was better.

@Djtux I have subscribed to your service and find it very good what you have put together. After struggling through 23 pages of Fromum, I understand most of the current implementations. I still have two questions a) when looking at the RV of NKE with the default settings, no Straddle Hedge is calculated or indicated with 0%. next to the current RV dashed line. If I display LULU, for example, this value is calculated. Why not with NKE? b) is the desktop tool still supported? the download does not work thanks!

On the Performance page, click on the year and then click here.....

https://steadyoptions.com/2024_perf/