fieldydwb

Chris, Any chance you can pass on the dats of the speeches/announcements so I can do some backtesting? If you have a solid resource of historical announcements that would be great as well. I'm having a heck of a time finding a summary of historical speeches.

Listoly, What'd you end up doing with your double calendar? I've got the 157/163 call double calendar. Overall still at sig. loss.

Advisable to close the 157 calendar altogether and roll the 163 into next week? Or close both? Appreciate the insight.

Cwelsh, I have the 157/163 double call calendar in place. Could I get your insight on how to deal with it this week? Thanks!

I followed seven or so trades. RUT was profitable, AAPL for me was also ..but I used different strikes. The rest were not. I'll provide updates to you via PM

Yeah, I'm watching 7 right now. More then half have hit the bottom strike and the price of the long butterfly isn't changing much. The market in general has been strange today so it might just be an off day. I've now got a subscription to OptionVue so I'll start putting in sometime into more detailed backtesting. I was able to get out of AAPL long butterfly with a profit.

As a sampler: I opened a 1 contract AAPL 655/665/675 long call butterfly at 1.6 and sold it at 1.85 just now.

Cwelsh, What did you end up doing? I got a 157 still active. Going through options.

I've been monitoring 7 different ones and noticing the same thing. Flat across them all.

From what I've tested so far it works terribly on RUT and SPY using TOS thinkback EOD pricing.

VMW, YELP and MNST are both monthly only as well. Here is the new list: AAPL -- Chirs, Dominic AMZN - Scott GOOG - Scott GLD -- Chris LNKD -- Chris LULU -- Donald MA -Fieldy NFLX -Fieldy PCLN - Dominic SINA -Fieldy YELP--Donald SPY - Kim??, Dominic [ I am not sure if Kim agreed to do SPY] RUT -Fieldy Removed: CSTR - Rusty EOG - Rusty MNST -Fieldy VMW -Fieldy YELP--Donald

Attached is the last 4 months for SINA, a lot less attractive than NFLX. The average % return was 2.67% with $15 per 10 contracts traded before commissions. I used 2.50 increments but will try with 5 to see if I get better results.

Attached is the last 6 months for NFLX. I used EOD data available on TOS which means that the Option pricing and structures are based on the EOD data. It's the best data I have right now and it should give some indication to success. The average % return was 5.83% with $51 per 10 contracts traded before commissions. It would have been higher except one loss of 40% when the stock moved 10% in one day. I believe we could have had stopped this loss somewhat.

AAPL -- Chirs, Dominic AMZN - Scott CSTR EOG GOOG - Scott GLD -- Chris LNKD -- Chris LULU -- Donald MA (slippage may be too high here) MNST -Fieldy NFLX -Fieldy PCLN - Dominic SINA -FIELDY VMW -Fieldy YELP--Donald SPY - Kim??, Dominic [ I am not sure if Kim agreed to do SPY]

Same thing happened to me. That was just bad timing/luck and expected given the news and move of the underlying.

Might as well add MNST and VMW for me as well. I don't mind taking on 4 I don't think it would be a bad idea to also do backtesting on these candidates for last 6 months. Members without time during the trading day could take that on. It still helps. TOS EOD prices..if a candidate works well by buying at EOD prices then why not adjust the strategy and buy around EOD on Thurs and sell again EOD on Fri. It could be that particular stock has different intraday vs night time volatility?

I'll take PCLN and NFLX

@DW agreed. It's worth more testing. Kim said it himself, in some weeks he did 70-80% and one week he got burned 70%. The inbetweens and the occasional extra 70% could make it worth it.

Using Thinkback TOS: Aug 2: The butterfly debt is .91 and on Aug 3 the debit is 1.00 but you are getting -18% EOD on Fri and -26 EOD on Thurs. I don't know how much we can rely on TOS. What did you get for the May 24, May 31, Jun 14 and Jun 21 dates?

For AMZN: I backtested purchasing 10 contracts on Thursday based around ATM and selling the following day (Friday). So if the open price was 220, the butterfly would be 215/220/225.

Marco, Any chance you can upload that file again? Would much appreciate it. Thanks in advance