Mike C 17 Report post Posted August 18, 2020 I made a little tally of the SO trade results so far in 2020 (Results were compiled based on the data available in the Performance section of the SO Website for 2020) . I will let you judged the results by yourself but I have to admit that I am impressed by the states especially by the fact that only 15 trades (10.3% of the trades) had a -10% yield or worst and that 71 trades ( 49% of the trades) had a +10% yield or better. That's a very good risk management... I thought It might be interesting to share. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MoneyMonkey 17 Report post Posted August 18, 2020 Hey Mike. I was surprised at this data so I looked at the performance page. I don't see any trades listed on that page for 2020 that made more than 90% return. You indicate 4 trades that did so. Are you looking here https://steadyoptions.com/performance/? Matt. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MoneyMonkey 17 Report post Posted August 18, 2020 Oh - I see - it's a typo on your table. You meant "+50%<=99%", not "+90%<=99%". Sorry. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike C 17 Report post Posted August 18, 2020 Sorry for the typo... Here is the corrected version. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike C 17 Report post Posted August 21, 2020 For those interested, a little followup with an extra breakdown of the outcome of each trade by strategy so far in 2020 (NB : Results were compiled based on the data available in the Performance section of the SO Website for as per 20200818) . Here are the best three "major" strategy by category so far this year No 1 : Calendars with a ratio of 89.7% Winners No 2 : Strangle with a ratio of 80% Winners No 3: Hedged Straddle with a ratio of 72.4% of Winners 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yowster 9,180 Report post Posted August 21, 2020 @Mike C Note that with the Hedged Straddles/Strangles trades that the earnings variety vs the non-earnings variety are far different trades which have a different risk profit due to the IV behavior differences (earnings trades have some level of guaranteed IV increase heading into earnings). Non-earnings trades have higher risk, higher reward (larger gains and larger losses). Placing them into the same bucket for comparison may not be significant. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike C 17 Report post Posted August 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, Yowster said: @Mike C Note that with the Hedged Straddles/Strangles trades that the earnings variety vs the non-earnings variety are far different trades which have a different risk profit due to the IV behavior differences (earnings trades have some level of guaranteed IV increase heading into earnings). Non-earnings trades have higher risk, higher reward (larger gains and larger losses). Placing them into the same bucket for comparison may not be significant. @Yowster Thanks for your feedback. I forgot to put a note with the table since I had anticipated that I could have a comment on that... I intent to go deeper with my analysis in the coming days ... I want to try to pinpoint the yield of every strategy with the maximum precision. I understand that each trade is unique but I am trying to understand what strategy leads to better results in what context but obviously I know I need to go deeper and understand all the nuts and bolts of every strategy but lets say that a starter... In addition, I understand that 2020 was a special year with the covid induced crash and the recovery so the stats have to be taken with a punch of salt ... in addition to the fact that, as you mentioned, some strategy are non earnings strategy and other are earnings related. In any caseI just thought that sharing these stats could be interesting and have some value for others. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yowster 9,180 Report post Posted August 21, 2020 28 minutes ago, Mike C said: @Yowster Thanks for your feedback. I forgot to put a note with the table since I had anticipated that I could have a comment on that... I intent to go deeper with my analysis in the coming days ... I want to try to pinpoint the yield of every strategy with the maximum precision. I understand that each trade is unique but I am trying to understand what strategy leads to better results in what context but obviously I know I need to go deeper and understand all the nuts and bolts of every strategy but lets say that a starter... In addition, I understand that 2020 was a special year with the covid induced crash and the recovery so the stats have to be taken with a punch of salt ... in addition to the fact that, as you mentioned, some strategy are non earnings strategy and other are earnings related. In any caseI just thought that sharing these stats could be interesting and have some value for others. not sure if you've seen them, but I already post stats similar to this on a yearly basis. Look at "2019 Performance by Trade Type" in this same forum (that post has links to prior years as well). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike C 17 Report post Posted August 21, 2020 No I have not seen that. I saw only the "general yearly stats". Its good to know.... I will check into it. Thx! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 7,943 Report post Posted August 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, Mike C said: No I have not seen that. I saw only the "general yearly stats". Its good to know.... I will check into it. Thx! 2019 Year End Performance by Trade Type Our typical goal is 10-30% profit, depending on the strategy. Anything beyond 50% is a bonus. On the other hand, we also aim to eliminate 50%+ losers (to our "defense", all three of them were half position, but we still would like to have zero of those big losers). The winning ratio of ~70% is in line with our long term stats, although Winning Ratio by itself doesn't mean much - you can have a winning ratio of 90% and still lose money. Anyway, thanks for posting this. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike C 17 Report post Posted August 21, 2020 @Kim. No doubt that you are right about the fact that winning ratio does not mean much. By the way I had already read that post ...(worth reading no doubt) Winning Ratio by itself doesn't mean much and that's precisely why I did my other table first. Lets say that the second one (with % of winning trades) was an addition to the first one not a standalone table... Anyway. lets say that I am just doing my personal homework to try to get the maximum out of what you have to offer... Since Its available just wanted to share it for what its worth! @Kim and @Yowster, thanks for all the info.. Very good info... worth every penny! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
