EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted September 15, 2012 I might buy some Oct 12.5 SKUL calls and hold a day or two if the stock continues it's bounce. I don't think it's even worth doing a straddle in this case. It's been knocked down a lot the past couple weeks after a Morgan Stanley downgrade, but it looks overdone. Short float is absurdly high at 70% with a short ratio of 22. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tjlocke99 18 Report post Posted September 16, 2012 I might buy some Oct 12.5 SKUL calls and hold a day or two if the stock continues it's bounce. I don't think it's even worth doing a straddle in this case. It's been knocked down a lot the past couple weeks after a Morgan Stanley downgrade, but it looks overdone. Short float is absurdly high at 70% with a short ratio of 22. Hi Eric. I've never heard of the term short float? Could you describe it? Thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thaze 4 Report post Posted September 16, 2012 The short float is the percent of shares that are shorted. Short sellers sell borrowed stocks at market price assuming a future price decline to buy back at a cheaper price, keeping the difference as their profit. For example, SKUL has a short float of 70% - meaning 70 out of everyone 100 shares sold is being sold short. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 Hi Eric. I've never heard of the term short float? Could you describe it? Thanks. To add on to what Thaze was saying, any good news can cause stocks with high short floats to shoot up in a very short period of time(the "short squeeze"). Check out the chart on Volkswagen (VOW.DE) in late 2008. That was the biggest short squeeze ever. A ton of hedge funds and big traders were short the stock. When it was revealed that Porsche had been quietly buying up shares and had built up a large stake in Volkswagen, all the shorts panicked and bought to cover. Volkswagen's stock price went up a few hundred percent in just several days and became the most valuable company in the world for a very brief period. Obviously a short squeeze of this magnitude is a very rare event, but there is always a small short squeeze occurring in some stock every day. Another thing to be aware of is that when you have a classic short squeeze, they are usually followed by large drops. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 And I'm in the Oct 12.5 calls at 1.20. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kelly Park 10 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 I like the thesis, Eric. I'm following you on this one. I'm in the Oct 12.5 call at 1.13. I also decided to try a bit more ocnservative Dec 11 Call at 2.50. Less time value, less theta, lower commissions. Won't be as good ROI, of course, but wanted to compare the two. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 I think this one is a good trade. If we can catch them in a squeeze, this one could go to the moon very quickly (and then come back down even quicker). Could be a 2 way play. Catch a ride up, buy a straddle somewhere near the top (if we miss the top, we may be able to roll the straddle at BE or better) to ride the wave back down to earth. In at 1.10 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thaze 4 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 (edited) Followed @ 1.10 also. Ended up skipping the OMX trade due to the wide spreads. Edited September 17, 2012 by Thaze Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thaze 4 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 (edited) Shorts had a massive sell-off from 13.25 to 12.30~ and my stop-loss kicked in and killed me on this one. OUCH. Another important lesson in portion sizing. Edited September 17, 2012 by Thaze Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest listolyman Report post Posted September 17, 2012 Thaze, can you reenter at a lower price than the stop? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thaze 4 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 (edited) Not currently - Might try to but I doubt it... Had my stop set @.95 and the massive sell-off caused a MASSIVE drop. Stop loss got screwed and ended up cashing out a .65. Think I'm gonna stay away from the short squeezes for now, that was painful. 41.7% loss in 10 minutes, FML. Go figure the 10 minutes I'm away to eat is when the sell-off would occur. Edited September 17, 2012 by Thaze Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 That selloff was bizarre. It might be one person playing around with the stock. Doesn't take much to move it. I'm just going to hold my calls until I get a pop. Could be a week from now. Could be never. I didn't use stops and don't mind losing 100% in this case since I put very little in the trade. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thaze 4 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 I over-allocated and got smacked for it, lesson learned. Oh well, positive spy calendar trade has offset the majority of the loss. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 Ouch. Sorry to hear that. I've been there before. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 I'm going to hang tough, the bulls have put a 12.50 floor on this badboy. I'll hold it for a couple of weeks and see where we are at. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thaze 4 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 I think it should be a good trade for those willing to hold, but after this selloff and loss from today I think I might skip out on re-entering. Best of luck to everyone else. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kelly Park 10 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 Sorry, Thaze. I've had it happen to me too. Stop loss orders are so TOUGH to deal with. It seems like it takes more analysis to figure out an approiate stop-loss than it does to find good trading candidates in the first place. And they so often trigger on a quick bounce and not the dramatic crash we set them for. Frustrating! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thaze 4 Report post Posted September 17, 2012 Thanks for the consolation. We win some and lose some, so lets just hope some others make up the loss. Learned my lesson to lower my allocation next time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
csensen13 1 Report post Posted September 18, 2012 Eric, the stock was briefly above 13 and then began drifting about 60 cents lower - do you think the short squeeze is yet to come, in your estimation? I'm holding a few Dec calls, so there is still plenty of time, but was curious as to what you were thinking. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted September 19, 2012 Well Eric, the stock was briefly above 13 and then began drifting about 60 cents lower - do you think the short squeeze is yet to come, in your estimation? I'm holding a few Dec calls, so there is still plenty of time, but was curious as to what you were thinking. There hasn't been any short squeeze yet. The jump last Friday may have been shorts taking profits after it got hammered earlier last week but I'm not really sure. Most stocks with a high short float go down in the long run because they are usually bad companies. But in some cases such as this one, the stock has been shorted to a point where it would be insane to short more in the near term. I know the market doesn't always behave rationally but I think this is a risk worth taking assuming you allocate very little. I also don't really like technical analysis and I don't believe that past performance guarantees future performance, but 5 of the past 5 times SKUL has gone below 13, it rebounded to at least around 14 within the following few weeks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
csensen13 1 Report post Posted September 19, 2012 thanks for the insight Eric - I have a pretty small position, since it's a new strategy for me, but it's fun to be along for the ride. We'll see... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted September 20, 2012 I doubled down this morning @ .65. We've had 4 days where it knocked on $12.30s door and couldn't break. Averaged in to .85 per contract. If it breaks $12, i'm going to take my lumps. If we hit $14 next week (which I really think could happen), I'll probably sell most. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted September 21, 2012 SKUL up 2.4% on the day. Could be the start of something. If the bulls can take control, squeeze could be imminent. Resistance around $13. If we can pop that on Monday or Tuesday, I could see this hitting $14 very shortly thereafter, but $13 has been the roof for the week thus far. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
csensen13 1 Report post Posted September 27, 2012 Is anyone still holding these? - I had a limit order on Dec 12.50 @ 1.60 which just hit for a very conservative (but nice) 11% return on a small position. But the stock looks like it's bouncing back nicely Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kelly Park 10 Report post Posted September 27, 2012 (edited) Is anyone still holding these? - I had a limit order on Dec 12.50 @ 1.60 which just hit for a very conservative (but nice) 11% return on a small position. But the stock looks like it's bouncing back nicely I still have my Oct 12.5 and Dec 11 calls. Both back to BE today. You kinda split the difference between the two with your position. Good call. (pun intended.) I'm still holding. I still think there is more potential upside. Edited September 27, 2012 by Kelly Park Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted September 27, 2012 (edited) I've still got them. On the fence about selling. Volume wasn't very high today, which is not indicative of a really good squeeze. Chart pattern are looking VERY promising of continuation. Yesterday there was a well formed hammer (bullish indicator) after a bunch of congestion (which is like a spring compressig). Assuming we close around 13.4 or up, we have another bullish candle today called a marabozu. Its basiclly where you open at the low and close at the high with a decent white body. It shows that the bulls are in control. If there weren't the 2 bullish candles back to back, I would have sold mine for a 35% profit, but I really think this is a good hold on point. That being said, I'm prepared to take up to a 20% loss on this trade, but in my opinion, the reward here far outweighs the risk. Next week, I'll be out one way or the other. Edited September 27, 2012 by trhanson Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted September 27, 2012 We did end at the top. In fact ended exactly at the high. I'm full bull on this one right now. Almost a perfect marabozu candle. Look for this one to window up tomorrow .10 and watch what it does. If the bears don't attack, squeeze may be in full effect and we could see 30, 40, maybe even 50 cents again. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest listolyman Report post Posted September 28, 2012 Skul is doing well today. I think it will pass $14 next week and maybe hit 1.80. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted September 28, 2012 I'm still holding. I'm probably not going to sell until it gets up to the 14's. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted September 28, 2012 Skul is doing well today. I think it will pass $14 next week and maybe hit 1.80. I've got a sell order for half +1 of my position at 1.7 which would BE on the whole trade for me, and I'm going to let the rest ride until I see something I don't like in the chart. On my other prediction, no window today. I would have really liked to have seen an open window as that usually ends up being a support, but can't win them all. Bears look like the are trying (especailly in the last half hour or so), but bulls holding strong at open. I see no reason to sell today :-) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hannes Kury 7 Report post Posted September 28, 2012 I took profit today at 1.35. 17% gain after comm. It was a wild ride. Thanks Eric for sharing! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kelly Park 10 Report post Posted October 1, 2012 Sold 4 out of 5 SKUL OCT 12.5 Calls, for just over my basis in the trade. keeping the remainder for a bit to safely squeeze as much out of it as possible. Still holding more conservative DEC 11 calls. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted October 1, 2012 (edited) *claps hands* out at 1.5. Just getting to the point now where I'm thinking about it after hours and such, at which point, it's time to go. 76.47% profit. Ha, I should have just held strong with my 1.7 limit order. Oh well, a win's a win. For what it is worth, I still think there is upside here. I just needed to take my win here since I rode it up so high. I may look to reenter with november options at some time. Edited October 1, 2012 by trhanson Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted October 1, 2012 I have a sell order set at 1.65 on the Oct 12.5 calls. I think it'll get there eventually. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted October 1, 2012 I have a sell order set at 1.65 on the Oct 12.5 calls. I think it'll get there eventually. I think it will as well. The only reason I got out was because the trade was starting to eat at my psyche :-) The way I look at it, I've got the next year and a half of SO covered now, lol. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thaze 4 Report post Posted October 1, 2012 Anyone thinking about buying puts if it hits a certain range? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kelly Park 10 Report post Posted October 1, 2012 Anyone thinking about buying puts if it hits a certain range? Personally, I wouldn't do that anytime soon. We are still well below the highs of August (16.75) and April (17.75). I actually think this will continue upward, which is why I maintained a partial position. But my risk/reward said to take some profits now, especially in a market that (I think) has a significant risk of a sharp correction. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted October 1, 2012 I agree with Kelly, buying puts would be a risky decision right now. I'd rather see less short interest and a higher price. That being said, if it got to $15.5, I'm going to start to look for a reversal pattern (either an evening star, hanging man, or a strong bearish engulfing) before I would look at buying. Right now, we are in between set floors and ceilings, so it could go either way. Personally, I hope it gets to whatever Kelly's sell limit is set at, and then comes tumbling back down to $12.50 so we can do it again, ha ha. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thaze 4 Report post Posted October 1, 2012 Lesson learned this time for sure - No stop losses for sure... I got out for a 47% loss while you all made off with a nice profit (not hating or anything, just stating my lesson was learned the hard way). I'll be ready for the next round though Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hannes Kury 7 Report post Posted October 2, 2012 Anybody thinking about a straddle? Maybe the Nov 14 strike? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kelly Park 10 Report post Posted October 2, 2012 My remaining Oct 12.5 calls sold at 1.60, so I'm out of that position. 30% gain. Thanks for the head's up on this one, Eric. Still holding my Dec 11 calls. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted October 2, 2012 Nice play Kelly. You got an extra dime on me :-D Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kelly Park 10 Report post Posted October 2, 2012 Nice play Kelly. You got an extra dime on me :-D Just happened to make a good guess on my GTC sell order. If I had done that with all my contracts, my gain would have been a good bit more, but I had already sold some to guarantee at least BE. Nice to be in that position every now and again. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted October 5, 2012 Got filled earlier this morning at 1.70. About a 40% gain after commissions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted October 5, 2012 Very nice. That was my original goal, but sometimes you gotta get to gettin' when the gettin's good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest listolyman Report post Posted October 5, 2012 Thanks Eric. Out at 1.65 for an 83% gain. Looks like i could of had over 100% if i had waited. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted October 5, 2012 This was a crazy good situation. If this thing hits 15, I'm going to start hunting for bearish reversal signals and possibly try my luck at a smaller downside positoin. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted October 5, 2012 (edited) It looks like we are building a very strong inverted hammer or shooting star here today. I'm considering buying a few puts. I put a limit order in for only 10 puts at .80 but it didn't get filled. Very bearish candlestick today and should be a short term trend reversal. Watch for SKUL to come back down. My target is 13. That would be a give back of half of the previous run (a measurement that is surprisingly accurate). Edited October 5, 2012 by trhanson Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trhanson 30 Report post Posted October 17, 2012 (edited) Too bad I didn't have this on an alert list. It hit 12.5 again today, and then recovered to near 13. I would have bought DEC 12.5 calls at a stock price of 12.50.... Edited October 17, 2012 by trhanson Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest listolyman Report post Posted October 18, 2012 Trhanson, i was considering this also. The stock is in the 12.60's today. What price are you targeting? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
