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Kim

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Someone posted an interesting comment on stockgumshoe:

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Kim and Yowster are very good at what they do. But, I started their service probably during the worst part of their trading in the last 3 yrs, Jan to Mar 2019. The fills are usually a huge problem. Strategies are for advanced traders which is acceptable since they do disclose that upfront. Fills being an issue and me not able to be on the computer most of the day, it is a bit difficult to get into a trade in a fast moving market. I couldnt get in some profitable trades that they had which affected my results negatively more than they did. So, I got fills in all the losing trades but not in all profitable trade. They also used ~80% of the account during this time period which is not common.

Unfortunately this is a mentality that I see too often when it comes to new members. They don't follow our recommendation to start with paper trading, try to jump into new trades from day one on order to "earn back the cost of the subscription", get frustrated and cancel. Of course our poor performance in January 2019 didn't help (as the same member mentioned, this was our worst month in 3 years). Some people expect it to be an ATM machine, and never have a losing month. Just doesn't work this way. So they join based on 7 years track record, but cancel based on one bad month. Same mentality that causes people to sell all their stock holdings in 2008, and watch the stock market triple in value in the next 10 years.

As I mentioned many times, getting good fills is part of the learning process. Over time when members gain more experience, they learn how to get better fills. Many members started as complete novices and now they take the trades even before I do and get better results in some cases. But those things take time. Looking at discussion topics, we can see that 80%+ of the trades can be entered at prices lower than the official price. I mention those cases on a daily basis.

If any of you wants to reply to this stockgumshoe comment, you are welcome to do it.

 

 

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Thanks Kim . . . I just so happen to be a longtime member of Stock Gumshoe.   Travis and crew are good folks and the fact that they encourage folks to comment and ask questions about all sorts of trade related products, services and sites - is a good thing.  

 

Given the above post about SO (which really wasn't that negative - just one person's perspective), I decided to go to the thread and see it.   I also went ahead and posted why I have joined SO (same time as the other poster), what my goals were in joining SO and my perspectives as such.  

 

I'm here to learn, gain experience, contribute and hopefully give value BACK to the SO community . . . and I plan on being here for the long haul.   It has been a great experience and I'm far from done (really, just getting started).

 

Thanks @Kim, @Yowster, @TrustyJules, @rasar and to all the others on this site - I'm a newbie, I'm leaning and this is a great place to be a member of.

Edited by MaryPaananen

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2 hours ago, Kim said:

@MaryPaananenThank you very much for posting a comment. This is exactly how members should use the service. And yes, I know Travis for many years and have a great respect for him and what he does. He is running an excellent resource. 

Hey @Kim - no problem in the least.  I find that too few people take time to mention the positive things in life, to give praise where it is due - they find it far easier to be a constant critic.   I'll stick to the positive side . . . you might say I'm LONG SO.  LOL

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Looks like the member who posted the first comment is insisting to keep posting.

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Posting reply on your own website instead of here speaks volumes. Bravo. I am still waiting to hear explanation about 20% draw down. Thats 20K loss in a 100K account.

 

For some reason I'm not able to post directly on Stock Gumshoe, so here is my reply:

 

Dear S K,

 

SteadyOptions produced triple digit returns in 6 out of 8 previous years. We encourage members to focus on our long term performance instead of one bad month. We know that some members join based on 8 years track record, but quit based on one bad month. Classic "buy high sell low" mentality. 6 months from now, they are going to feel a bit silly.


I encourage "S K" (whoever you are) to post their comments and criticism here, instead of hiding behind their anonymity.

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I can identify with SK's problems and can only echo @Kim's long term approach and outlook. The market can only be surprised by so much for so long. 

However, I would say it has been a rough year generally for Trading. I have seen (at least in my eyes) some fairly level headed traders (i.e. not BS artists) complain that it has been one of most difficult Calendar years on record (one really good option trader on Twitter has on my count said 'newbies don't trade this market' at least 3/4 times since June 2018). The great Bill Gross aka the Bond King has bowed out, and Paulson & Co has returned sizeable amounts of money to investors (due to poor performance). These guys aren't idiots.   

Even here we have had @SBatch complain about the irrationality of the Bond market (I think he said the craziest bond market in his 20+ years in December 2019). The question for the service subscriber is do you a) view this as symptomatic of a wider service problem (SO or anyone else not delivering the goods) or b) this is a patience game. If a) you can easily diagnose by looking at the track record (which SO provides unlike so many others...), if b) reduce trade sizes or paper trade. 

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3 hours ago, Rabbit10 said:

I can identify with SK's problems and can only echo @Kim's long term approach and outlook. The market can only be surprised by so much for so long. 

However, I would say it has been a rough year generally for Trading. I have seen (at least in my eyes) some fairly level headed traders (i.e. not BS artists) complain that it has been one of most difficult Calendar years on record (one really good option trader on Twitter has on my count said 'newbies don't trade this market' at least 3/4 times since June 2018). The great Bill Gross aka the Bond King has bowed out, and Paulson & Co has returned sizeable amounts of money to investors (due to poor performance). These guys aren't idiots.   

Even here we have had @SBatch complain about the irrationality of the Bond market (I think he said the craziest bond market in his 20+ years in December 2019). The question for the service subscriber is do you a) view this as symptomatic of a wider service problem (SO or anyone else not delivering the goods) or b) this is a patience game. If a) you can easily diagnose by looking at the track record (which SO provides unlike so many others...), if b) reduce trade sizes or paper trade. 

In my opinion, it is simply a patience game.  Often the worst conditions eventually morph into an excellent environment.  Frankly, that is what I am anticipating in the Treasury market and I think we’re getting pretty close.  I also believe it is likely the environment for the SO strategies will begin to improve as well.  The miscommunication and about face of the Fed had far reaching consequences in ALL markets and in my opinion that is beginning to fade.  Let’s see what the next six months bring.

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4 hours ago, Rabbit10 said:

I can identify with SK's problems and can only echo @Kim's long term approach and outlook. The market can only be surprised by so much for so long. 

However, I would say it has been a rough year generally for Trading. I have seen (at least in my eyes) some fairly level headed traders (i.e. not BS artists) complain that it has been one of most difficult Calendar years on record (one really good option trader on Twitter has on my count said 'newbies don't trade this market' at least 3/4 times since June 2018). The great Bill Gross aka the Bond King has bowed out, and Paulson & Co has returned sizeable amounts of money to investors (due to poor performance). These guys aren't idiots.   

Even here we have had @SBatch complain about the irrationality of the Bond market (I think he said the craziest bond market in his 20+ years in December 2019). The question for the service subscriber is do you a) view this as symptomatic of a wider service problem (SO or anyone else not delivering the goods) or b) this is a patience game. If a) you can easily diagnose by looking at the track record (which SO provides unlike so many others...), if b) reduce trade sizes or paper trade. 

Some strategies definitely have issues due to crazy moves, but I wouldn't say that about SO. We had one bad month in January, I provided a full analysis here. It was simply a combination of few bad trades that came all in one month. 

The funny thing is that if the same loss came at the end of 2018, nobody wouldn't even notice because we would still have almost triple digit return in 2018. But since the loss came at the beginning of a calendar year, the year so far doesn't look good.

Our long term members know that this is just a bump in a road. It can happen, and for a strategy with triple digit annual return in the last 7 years, it is not uncommon to have such a drawdown once in 3-4 years.

Members who stick around are usually well rewarded.

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22 minutes ago, Kim said:

The funny thing is that if the same loss came at the end of 2018, nobody wouldn't even notice because we would still have almost triple digit return in 2018

Never thought of that. Good point

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34 minutes ago, Rabbit10 said:

Never thought of that. Good point

Yep. Most people don't. 

And I can guarantee you that once the Treasury market stabilizes, you will start seeing excellent returns from the CA strategy as well.

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These first three months have been a bit rough - and January started us off with a down month.  Also, as the market is different today than most years, we're all having to learn to adapt, evolve and adjust.  We owe it to ourselves to try things that have worked, review results, adjust methods, try new things, etc..  It takes time to evolve into the "new normal" . . . and that takes work and closed-loop introspection.  I look at my "unrealized gains" related to some of my options plays - and I'm not overjoyed with what I see (larger negative numbers in some areas than I'd like) - but I also know that I'm learning every day and we will get there - whether it is this month, the next, or the one after . . . so I'm very positive about my SO future.

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The question everyone has to ask himself: was January just a fluke or the strategies stopped working? 

The answer is simple:if you remove the four 100% losers, we would be up 10% YTD.

Of course there is no shoulda woulda coulda in trading. But this is a clear indication that the basic strategies are working fine overall. There is nothing fundamentally wrong.

But not everyone can see it, and most people don't really care. They want results, they don't care why specific trade made or lost money. 

The analogy that like to give:

Most investors know that in the long term, the stock market produces around 10% annual return. Then why so many select to liquidate their stock holdings after a major drawdown? If you did not panic in 2008 and held your stock portfolio, you would be watching it almost tripling in the next 10 years.
 

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