Elliott Wave

[IncomeTrader1 6]

Hello Everyone,

 

I took a free trial to one of the Elliott Wave services. Here is an update they sent today:
 

Quote

 

Until I see an impulsive 5-wave structure develop off a low, or a strong break out through 2520SPX, we have to view pressure as being down.  But, the depth of this decline will not be dictated by the micro structure since both look at the same. That means we are left looking down until the market provides us with a bullish set up for which we have to begin looking higher sooner rather than later. 

And, while this action is clearly quite frustrating and difficult, please do not hesitate to ask questions to make sure you are clear about our perspective.  In summary, we are still looking for either a lower low to complete the a-wave of wave 4, or another clear indication that the a-wave of wave 4 has completed, and we have begun a rally to 2800SPX in the b-wave.

 

It basically say: if A happens - we go to 2520. If B happens - we go to 2800. But there is no definite direction, and it basically allows them to say "we were right" no matter what happens.

Does anyone has any positive experience with Elliott Wave, or is it always that vague and indecisive?
 

 

[Kim 7,475]

From my experience with Elliott Wave, this is how most of those experts operate. They make it vey vague on purpose, so after the fact, they can say they were right, no matter the outcome. I have yet to see a single Elliott Wave service or expert who gives a concrete and specific trade signals based on Elliott Wave, and publishes a clear track record.

Robert Prechter who is considered on of THE experts, has in fact one of the worst track records in history. He made himself a pretty good name by correctly forecasting the 2008 market crash. What most people don't remember is the fact that Prechter's newsletter had been almost uninterruptedly bearish for the nearly two decades prior to 2008 -- and, as a result, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, was near the bottom of the rankings for market timing performance over those two decades. A bearish stopped clock even gets to be right occasionally. cxoadvisory's research confirms this - Robert Prechter was ranked the last out of 68 gurus, with only 20.8% accuracy.

Now, I'm not saying that Elliott Wave doesn't work or cannot work. But I have yet to see a clear track record based on this theory.