Strangling or straddling the midterms?

[Crazy ayzo]

 

 I would like to trade either straddles or strangles on QQQ (or other candidate) based on the Mid term elections (Tues, Nov 6th).  My thesis is;

* It seems like political events are effecting the market in a major way (Fed, Midterms, trade war)... maybe more so than fundamentals at this point.

  * The market believes that an election causes uncertainty and volatility leading up to it.  The market generally goes up after the election is over, regardless of who wins.

 * Volatility is likely to stay high, or even increase, leading up to Nov 6th, and fall after that.

* Therefore, it seems like buying straddles or strangles this week and selling them on Monday or Tuesday Nov 5/6 would be a good bet.

*** Does any one have any specific opinions on this, or on trading big political events in general?

 

[Crazy ayzo]

@Kim,

Well, I didn't get any response on how to play the election, so I took a beginner's guess and went long... I bought VXX puts yesterday and 8 days ago.  Here's how it played out!

187% on  the 8 day trade, and 86% on a one day trade!  Just shy of $8,000 in gains.  I can't thank you enough for the SO site.  What I learned on volatility trading has been very profitable.

 

86% on a one day trade!

@akito

... I'm getting closer to the century mark!