TLRY trade idea

[clipsnation183 84]

This pot stock is up 400% since the IPO in June and up 11% today.  10 dollar wide Iron flies are trading for 9.99cr. I got a few at 10.01cr. Obvious a lottery ticket.  

[TrustyJules 3,212]

Are you high? ;-)

[clipsnation183 84]

2 minutes ago, TrustyJules said:

Are you high? ;-)

Apparently everyone who's trading this stock is... 

[Yowster 9,174]

what expiration did you use?

[TrustyJules 3,212]

He doesnt inhale

[clipsnation183 84]

1 minute ago, Yowster said:

what expiration did you use?

oct 19 115 10 dollar IF. This may not last long.

[TrustyJules 3,212]

Hmm quote doesnt show on Tastyworks - odd

[clipsnation183 84]

Dude, I just got filled on a 30 lot for 10.58. Who's on the other side of this? I'm getting nervous. 

[Yowster 9,174]

5 minutes ago, clipsnation183 said:

oct 19 115 10 dollar IF. This may not last long.

On the positive side, you are obviously risking zero.   One thing I noticed, given that the ATM 10 wide iron fly expiring next week is currently trading at 9.50, is that you are going to have to wait until the last day or two before expiration to realize any significant gains on this.

[Rogers 263]

1 minute ago, clipsnation183 said:

Dude, I just got filled on a 30 lot for 10.58. Who's on the other side of this? I'm getting nervous. 

Getting out might be a challenge..

[Yowster 9,174]

1 minute ago, clipsnation183 said:

Dude, I just got filled on a 30 lot for 10.58. Who's on the other side of this? I'm getting nervous. 

That's a guaranteed 5.8% profit (minus commissions).   Are you legging into this?   Hard to believe a 4 leg combo order would fill for a credit bigger than the spread width?

[clipsnation183 84]

I just sold 135 butterflies. 

[clipsnation183 84]

Just now, clipsnation183 said:

I just sold 135 butterflies. 

 

1 minute ago, Yowster said:

That's a guaranteed 5.8% profit (minus commissions).   Are you legging into this?   Hard to believe a 4 leg combo order would fill for a credit bigger than the spread width?

no just one order. 

[Djtux 548]

Just now, Yowster said:

That's a guaranteed 5.8% profit (minus commissions).   Are you legging into this?   Hard to believe a 4 leg combo order would fill for a credit bigger than the spread width?

I got filled for 10.79 credit on the 105/115/125 iron butterfly in a single 4 leg order. I'm not sure what's going on or if i'm making a mistake.

[Noah Katz 90]

4 minutes ago, Yowster said:

On the positive side, you are obviously risking zero.

 

How's that??

[krisbee 1,965]

1 minute ago, Yowster said:

That's a guaranteed 5.8% profit (minus commissions).   Are you legging into this?   Hard to believe a 4 leg combo order would fill for a credit bigger than the spread width?

How is this one  

[clipsnation183 84]

Okay, the madness has stopped for the moment. I tried to sell another 200 flies and not filling. 

[Djtux 548]

Just now, clipsnation183 said:

Okay, the madness has stopped for the moment. I tried to sell another 200 flies and not filling. 

Thank you for sharing btw. It's going to be fun to follow what's going to happen next.

[Noah Katz 90]

1 minute ago, krisbee said:

How is this one  

 

Is that meant as an answer to my question?

 

Either way, since when is there such a thing as a risk-free trade.

[Yowster 9,174]

4 minutes ago, Noah Katz said:

 

How's that??

He collected more than the width of the iron fly, so worst case its gets closed for the width of the spread.

[TrustyJules 3,212]

Only explanation I could think of is that there are a lot of people that bought OTM options that shot up. They are keen to offload even if it scalps a bit off their value and somehow the MM is unable to absorb all the offer.

[cuegis 683]

Am I missing something here?

I'm assuming that because this is a relatively new-ish company, there isn't a huge dividend.

Why is it that , whenever it is at a strike, the put is almost double the price of the call (same strike).

The IV reflects that with 130 IV for the call, and 240 IV for the same strike put, with the same delta.

Is there stock available to short?

If so, you can easily do a conversion/reversal.

Sell put/buy call/sell stock and lock in a huge gain.

But, I'm guessing there isn't any short stock available.

[Djtux 548]

1 minute ago, cuegis said:

Am I missing something here?

I'm assuming that because this is a relatively new-ish company, there isn't a huge dividend.

Why is it that , whenever it is at a strike, the put is almost double the price of the call (same strike).

The IV reflects that with 130 IV for the call, and 240 IV for the same strike put, with the same delta.

Is there stock available to short?

If so, you can easily do a conversion/reversal.

Sell put/buy call/sell stock and lock in a huge gain.

But, I'm guessing there isn't any short stock available.

Look at the crazy borrow rates.

[krisbee 1,965]

38 minutes ago, clipsnation183 said:

This pot stock is up 400% since the IPO in June and up 11% today.  10 dollar wide Iron flies are trading for 9.99cr. I got a few at 10.01cr. Obvious a lottery ticket.  

How did u find this one? 

[Noah Katz 90]

9 minutes ago, Yowster said:

He collected more than the width of the iron fly, so worst case its gets closed for the width of the spread.

 

Ah, thanks.

 

Cool, so there *is* such a thing as a risk-free trade.

[cuegis 683]

2 minutes ago, Djtux said:

Look at the crazy borrow rates.

I figured it was something like this.

There is no free lunch.

But, because of the activity, you can setup dozens of butterflies and offer them at a price greater than the distance between the strikes, and have some chance of getting filled by having some fall through the cracks.

[cuegis 683]

There are many others like this.

CGC is another example...but not as currently insane as this one.

I guess part of the mayhem is the Oct 1st legalization of pot in Canada.

[rasar 1,998]

8 minutes ago, krisbee said:

How did u find this one? 

Don't ask. Don't tell.

[clipsnation183 84]

2 minutes ago, rasar said:

Don't ask. Don't tell.

I reading bloomberg and IBD. 

[clipsnation183 84]

ended up with 400 butterflies and locked in 2K profit. I put in an order for a 1000 more flies but the broker put the kaibosh on me.  

[clipsnation183 84]

Hopefully some of you got in on this 

[akito 184]

Wow... this seems too good to be true. (but obviously not since people are getting real fills)

 

Please keep us updated on this trade if anything happens. Eager to see how it develops.

[cuegis 683]

The ATM straddle expiring tomorrow is $12+

Next Friday is $27

[Rogers 263]

4 minutes ago, clipsnation183 said:

ended up with 400 butterflies and locked in 2K profit. I put in an order for a 1000 more flies but the broker put the kaibosh on me.  

You are buying a round at the first annual SO meetup

[cuegis 683]

The biggest problem is piecing together an infinite number of combinations of spreads, and then offering them beyond the strike range.

There is an unlimited number of combinations.

[clipsnation183 84]

11 minutes ago, Rogers said:

You are buying a round at the first annual SO meetup

Hell yeah.

[TrustyJules 3,212]

If you look at open interest its quite insane

[rasar 1,998]

Real-time P/L chart is quite strangely biased

[Azov 20]

I tried many combinations, but couldn’t get a fill above $2 for a $2 spread IB on TOS. Even though at one point the mid was showing $3.60! Time to change brokers, I think. 

[Yowster 9,174]

I'm not sure how you compute a gain% when your at-risk amount is a negative number?      I thought I missed the boat, but I had some spreads fill at 10.50 credit about 20 mins before market close (after the order being open for almost an hour)..

[NJ_KenRob 160]

How often does something like this happen.

Are there certain situations or symbols that make it more likely to be able to get a fill like this?

[clipsnation183 84]

1 minute ago, Yowster said:

I'm not sure how you compute a gain% when your at-risk amount is a negative number?      I thought I missed the boat, but I had some spreads fill at 10.50 credit about 20 mins before market close (after the order being open for almost an hour)..

I'm stunned. Surely, this can't go on tomorrow. 

[SBatch 3,123]

7 minutes ago, NJ_KenRob said:

How often does something like this happen.

Are there certain situations or symbols that make it more likely to be able to get a fill like this?

Not at all often with today’s technology, this is a true anomaly.

[Yowster 9,174]

4 minutes ago, NJ_KenRob said:

How often does something like this happen.

Are there certain situations or symbols that make it more likely to be able to get a fill like this?

Sky high IV (like 150%) combined with a stock price above $100 and decent trading volume made this scenario possible.    I looked at CGC as well (another marijuana stock) - its IV is only about 100% and its stock price is around $44, but the options prices didn't work out to get a fill above the width.

[Yowster 9,174]

Just now, SBatch said:

Not at all often with today’s technology, this is a true anomaly.

I could understand a handful of spreads getting filled like this, but it sounds we got filled on hundreds of spreads at prices well above the width of the iron fly..... truly amazing!

[TrustyJules 3,212]

This must be retail traders causing it - TastyWorks doesnt allow me to trade the stock and I am pretty sure a lot of institutions are probably barred legally or voluntarily from trading the stock., Without the pros such odd pricing occurs - the counterparties to the butterflies are surely not unique traders but multiple individuals.

[NJ_KenRob 160]

Why would TastyWorks prevent you from trading listed securities?

[TrustyJules 3,212]

I dont know - when I type in the ticker nothing comes up. I tried several times including putting in the name of the company - no joy.

[Azov 20]

32 minutes ago, clipsnation183 said:

I'm stunned. Surely, this can't go on tomorrow. 

I think there will be a lot of us looking to see if it does!

[cuegis 683]

I'm surprised that any of this fell through to the retail outlets.

Given the sophistication of technology, expertise ,and funding, of institutions like IB, GS etc. who have full time divisions of teams working at this every minute of everyday, you would have expected them to have sucked this anomoly dry today.