October (High Season!)

[cuegis]

We have managed to find enough "pre-earnings" calendars to keep busy in the past 2 "off months".

But, now that October is upon us and there are going to be zillions of opportunities, and it is not possible to do all, or even 50 of them, do you have a list of your favorites?

The one's that you have had the most consistent success with during the "main" earnings months?

So that we can get them on our  radar and and either start tracking them, or start putting them on.

Most earnings should already be over by the end of October. I'm guessing that there might be more in the 2nd half of the month.

But, isn't it time to start putting on more of the "main" ones?

[Kim]

I'm sure you can find them by looking at the performance page and Trading pre-earnings calendars topic..

[cuegis]

6 minutes ago, Kim said:

I'm sure you can find them by looking at the performance page and Trading pre-earnings calendars topic..

That link is from 2 1/2 years ago.

All of the stocks listed still remain the most active but, I just thought you might have had some updated info , either in terms of stocks, or trading ideas, as we are always learning.

[Kim]

That link is being updated all the time, and the table on the bottom of the first topic includes Q3 2016. Those are the candidates we have been trading. I also open a discussion topic before entering. We are trading pretty much the same stocks every cycle, they are all on the performance page (GOOG, NFLX, AMZN, FB, TSLA, PCLN). LNKD used to be an excellent candidate, but MSFT stole it from us. I'm still considering legal action..

[cuegis]

1 minute ago, Kim said:

That link is being updated all the time, and the table on the bottom of the first topic includes Q3 2016. Those are the candidates we have been trading. I also open a discussion topic before entering. We are trading pretty much the same stocks every cycle, they are all on the performance page (GOOG, NFLX, AMZN, FB, TSLA, PCLN). LNKD used to be an excellent candidate, but MSFT stole it from us. I'm still considering legal action..

LNKD was always one of my favorites. They were as good ,or better , than any of the others for these types of trades.

Let's make it a "class action" suit!

[cuegis]

I know that you have cited the number .35% of the stock price of GOOG as a reference point for pre-earnings double calendars.

You also have said that this , % of the stock number, is different for every stock.

I am trying to price calendars for the upcoming earnings month and wanted to know if you have a list of , what you have found to be, the ideal % of stock price, numbers for all of the larger name stocks that you typically participate in.

For example, I am looking at FB.

Based on IV, the market is saying that earnings will happen AFTER the Oct 28 expiration.

So, I am looking at Nov 4 / Nov 18 (monthly), a 2 week spread.

The ATM 2 week calendar is about .35 cents on $4.50 options.

But, I don't know how to go about finding a reference point as % of the stock price for FB, and all of the others that one would likely participate in.

Edited October 4, 2016 by cuegis

[cuegis]

4 minutes ago, cuegis said:

I know that you have cited the number .35% of the stock price of GOOG as a reference point for pre-earnings double calendars.

You also have said that this , % of the stock number, is different for every stock.

I am trying to price calendars for the upcoming earnings month and wanted to know if you have a list of , what you have found to be, the ideal % of stock price, numbers for all of the larger name stocks that you typically participate in.

For example, I am looking at FB.

Based on IV, the market is saying that earnings will happen AFTER the Oct 28 expiration.

So, I am looking at Nov 4 / Nov 18 (monthly), a 2 week spread.

The ATM 2 week calendar is about .35 cents on $4.50 options.

But, I don't know how to go about finding a reference point as % of the stock price for FB, and all of the others that one would likely participate in.

Never mind. I just went back through your historical threads and found what you had to say about FB, and others, from the last cycle

[cuegis]

I need to add on a question to the previous post.

In your past calculations, FB for example, you were giving 1.5% of the stock price as your guide for pricing the double calendar but, that was for a 3 week calendar because that is how FB played out in July. (earnings were BEFORE July 28 expiration)

For this next one (November), the earnings are falling right after the Oct 28 expiration, which means that you need to sell Nov 4 and buy Nov 18 (monthly) which , in this case, is a 2 week , not 3 week, calendar.

So the numbers are all different. 

Is there a method to calculate what is the % of stock price number PER WEEK, to give a reference point.

The calculations from the July FB earnings can't be used this time around because it is 2, rather than 3 week spreads.

I have not yet checked the others that also report the last week of the month but, I have a feeling that there will be many others this month where we have to sell Nov 4th rather than Oct 28.

 

For 2 week rather than 3 week, would you just use the original 3 week formula and take 2/3rd's of it to arrive at a 2 week spread. (ex. .85 x .666= .56)???

Edited October 4, 2016 by cuegis

[Kim]

I will open FB discussion topic shortly and we can discuss there.