cmg earning date

[semsem24 5]

cmg is expected to announce earning this week based on previous trends . I just opened a 1 week calendar at 3.4 by being long april 4 th week and short short April monthly .

Everything I look at leads me to believe that earning date should be announced this week and it is expected to be on Tuesday April 19th after market hours . feel free to tell us your opinion

[Kim 7,943]

According to options prices, IV of apr5 is higher than apr4, so I'm not sure about April 19 earnings. And if this is true, then apr4 doesn't catch earnings.

[semsem24 5]

There is that risk for sure however from looking at all their April announcements , they never announced that late . the only time they announce that late is when they announce at the end of Jan or beginning of Feb . I think we will know soon

[luxmon 233]

Thanks for sharing your idea.  I'm not sure about it, as the options you sold are about the cheapest ones on the board.  What is your thesis, that Apr4 IV will pop if confirmed for that week?  I don't see April monthly IV dropping much more if earnings are confirmed after based on the IV of the weeklies in front of it (similar).  There could be a big risk if earnings are confirmed after Apr4 expiration (as I just noticed Kim had already mentioned).

Edited March 15, 2016 by luxmon

[semsem24 5]

based my pre-testing on TOS once the earning announced if I am right , this calendar should be between 8 to $ 10.00 .. so the risk is either a 50 % hair cut if they go to the last week in April or a 3 times increase in the price of the options 

[luxmon 233]

Well, that makes sense then and is a great reward-risk setup.  I didn't realize the IV of the Apr4 was so underpriced right now for earnings.  Good luck.