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The Relationship of Prices of VIX® Futures contracts to the VIX® Index

Prices of VIX futures contracts have unique characteristics, because they may be either higher or lower than the underlying VIX index. This occurs because market expectations of volatility in the future may vary from month to month.

 

Assume, for example that today is August 10 and the VIX index is 20. If market expectations are for 30-day implied volatility to be higher than 20 in October and lower than 20 in December, then October VIX futures will be trading at a level above 20 and December VIX futures will be trading below 20.

 

This pricing relationship of the VIX futures relative to the underlying "spot" index is unique. Most futures contracts are based on a "cost of carry" relationship to the underlying instrument, by which the futures contract replicates the performance of the underlying instrument. Replication of an underlying instrument may be as easy as taking a position in a U.S. treasury security or as complex as buying a portfolio of stocks that mirror the performance of the SPX.

 

If a trader has the ability to replicate the performance of the underlying instrument, then he may also take advantage of a "mispricing" between a futures contract and the underlying market. Arbitrage trading firms attempt to take advantage of such "out-of-line pricing" when it occurs. This sort of market activity causes futures contracts to trade within a narrow range "close" to the price of the underlying instrument.

 

In contrast to the arbitrage trading discussed above, the ability to replicate the performance of the VIX index does not exist in the same manner as other financial products or indexes. The VIX index is calculated using the mid-point between the bid and offer of the SPX option contracts, and this mid-point pricing does not necessarily represent a market price where a VIX futures contract may be readily traded. The result is an inability of traders to quickly trade SPX option contracts to lock in a 30-day implied volatility versus the VIX index. With the inability to arbitrage between the VIX index and VIX futures, there is no arbitrage value relationship between the two instruments.

 

The chart below shows the price relationship between the VIX index and the August 2011 VIX futures contract over the last six weeks leading up to August VIX index expiration. The blue line shows the August contract's closing prices and the red line represents the VIX index. Note that, at different times, the futures contract trades at both a premium and a discount to the index during this time period.

 

VIX® Futures (blue) compared to the VIX® Index (red)

VIXFutures2.gif

 

http://www.cboe.com/strategies/vix/futuresintro/part4.aspx

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"Strategies with VIX and VSTOXX Futures"

"Identifying suitable models for statistical arbitrage"
 
SILVIA STANESCU and RADU TUNARU, KENT BUSINESS SCHOOL, UNIVERSITY OF KENT
 
First published 11 Feb 2014

- See more at: http://www.thehedgefundjournal.com/node/9182#sthash.ZKgUhCli.dpuf

 

HFJ_logo.png

Edited by OptionsEnthusiast™

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"Settlement Process"

 

VIX® futures are settled in cash on the Wednesday that is 30 days prior to the next month's standard S&P 500 Stock Index (SPX) options expiration date, which is the 3rd Friday of the next month.

 

Specific expiration dates may be found within the Expiration Calendar. Last trading day is the Tuesday prior to settlement day at 3:15 CT. They are then settled in cash based on a special VIX index calculation. The special VIX index calculation uses actual opening trades in SPX options. This is a "special calculation," because the VIX index calculated throughout the day is based on the mid-point of the bid - ask spread of SPX options.

 

The final VIX index settlement level on expiration Wednesdays is disseminated under the symbol VRO.

 

http://www.cboe.com/strategies/vix/futuresintro/part3.aspx

Edited by OptionsEnthusiast™

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"CBOE to Launch Weekly VIX Options in October The CBOE will launch weekly VIX options in October, giving investors an improved way to play shifts in shareholder sentiment."

 

http://www.barrons.com/articles/cboe-to-launch-weekly-vix-options-in-october-1439013192

 

Updated Aug. 8, 2015 1:53 a.m. ET

 

In early October, as the stock market starts a historically volatile month, investors will be able to trade their own fear more precisely, along with that of others.

 

For the first time, CBOE Holdings (ticker: CBOE) will list weekly options on the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a measure of implied volatility on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. The listing on Oct. 8 follows the July 23 introduction of weekly VIX futures contracts, a prerequisite for dealers to be able to support the options.

 

Weekly VIX options are likely to generate substantial trading volume by addressing a disconnect that has frustrated investors.

 

Since the 2008-09 credit crisis, the VIX has emerged as a leading barometer of investor sentiment. When it rises, the VIX signals investors are afraid. When it declines, VIX signals bullishness and possible complacency. Over time, many investors have come to believe they can anticipate VIX moves.

 

To profit, traders buy or sell VIX options that expire in a month, currently the shortest period for which they’re available. Many of them expect the puts or calls to mimic moves in the famous fear gauge. In this, they’re mistaken. The VIX is an index that tracks the implied volatility of various S&P 500 index options. The VIX can’t be traded. VIX options track VIX futures, which are subject to different influences and can vary from the index.

 

But shortening VIX options expirations creates a better trading opportunity. The nearer that VIX options are to their expiration date, the more closely the contracts reflect the index’s readings. As a result of the changes, trading patterns will probably shift.

 

Currently, 40% of VIX futures volume occurs in contracts expiring in a month, according to Krag Gregory, a Goldman Sachs strategist. For VIX options, 51% of the volume occurs in front-month contracts. It’s projected that weekly VIX options may supplant a big chunk of the longer-term contracts.

 

The fundamental attraction of the new contracts will be an ability to wager on short-term volatility moves around major market events, including payroll reports and Federal Reserve meetings. Portfolio managers may also use weekly VIX options to more closely calibrate portfolio hedges purchased to protect or enhance their stock holdings.

 

The expected success of new weekly VIX options and futures expirations might move CBOE closer to fulfilling our recommendation to quote VIX on a near 24-hour basis. We think this would help investors better assess shareholder sentiment in the U.S. and international markets. (See “The Case for a 24-Hour VIX.”)

 

Should trading volumes in weekly options match expectations, the industry may even adopt our suggestion that it introduce options that expire in less than a week.

 

No doubt, the new VIX listings will also exacerbate troubles investors already have trading VIX options. Weekly options could prompt investors to wager on the VIX’s longer-term movements, which, again, can vary due to fluctuations in futures prices. This unintended consequence should be addressed when weekly VIX options are launched.

 

Investors need to be clearly reminded that VIX options price off VIX futures. This nuance, elemental as it is within the trading community, eludes many investors.

 

Investors who lose money because they misunderstand a basic fact about a product tend to assume a market is rigged. Many take their money elsewhere.

 

While plenty of fact sheets exist, none seem very helpful. What investors need—and what the launch of weekly VIX options offers a perfect opportunity to provide—are concise one-page information guides such as pharmacists distribute to explain the uses and risks of prescription drugs. By addressing educational gaps, the options industry will ensure it has a steady group of customers whose interests never expire.

 

 

ON-BL994_bCBOE0_NS_20150807183812.gif

 

 

 

STEVEN SEARS is the author of The Indomitable Investor: Why a Few Succeed in the Stock Market When Everyone Else Fails
Comments: steve.sears@barrons.comhttp://twitter.com/sm_sears

Edited by OptionsEnthusiast™

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"CBOE to List VIX 'Weeklys' Options Beginning October 8"

 

July 31, 2015

 

CHICAGO, IL – July 31, 2015  The Chicago Board Options Exchange® (CBOE®) today announced that it plans to list options with weekly expirations on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX® Index) beginning Thursday, October 8, 2015.

 

The listing of VIX Weeklys options adds another tool to an array of long- and short-term trading strategies that can be executed on the VIX Index, the world’s premier benchmark of equity market volatility. The launch of VIX Weeklys options follows that of VIX Weeklys futures, which were introduced at the CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE®) on July 23.

 

“We received strong interest from our customers in short-term VIX trading, and the initial response to VIX Weeklys futures has been positive. We look forward to building on that favorable response with the upcoming launch of VIX Weeklys options,” said CBOE Holdings CEO Edward T. Tilly. “VIX Weeklys are a natural extension and complement to standard VIX options and futures and provide investors with additional opportunities to trade the world’s most widely followed measure of market volatility.”

 

The VIX Index is based on real-time prices of options on the S&P 500® Index (SPX) and is designed to reflect investors' consensus expectations for 30-day stock market volatility. Standard VIX futures and options expire monthly. Weekly VIX options expirations will offer convergence to the VIX cash index four to five times per month, instead of once a month. 

 

The closer VIX options get to expiration, the more they tend to track the underlying VIX Index. Contracts with weekly expirations allow investors to implement more targeted buying, selling, spreading and hedging strategies. In general, Weeklys are growing in popularity industrywide because they offer investors the ability to fine-tune their positions.

 

CBOE may list up to six consecutive weekly expirations for VIX options and futures.

 

New weekly expirations for VIX futures and options are listed on Thursdays (excluding holidays) and expire on Wednesdays. Like VIX Weeklys futures, the VIX

Weeklys options will be available during regular and extended trading hours. For more information on VIX Weeklys futures and options, go towww.cboe.com/VIXWeeklys/

 

Forward-Looking Statements:

Certain information contained in this news release may constitute forward-looking statements. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date made and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.

 

About CBOE:

CBOE, the largest U.S. options exchange and creator of listed options, continues to set the bar for options and volatility trading through product innovation, trading technology and investor education. CBOE Holdings offers equity, index and ETP options, including proprietary products, such as S&P 500 options (SPX), the most active U.S. index option, and options and futures on the CBOE Volatility Index (the VIX Index). Other products engineered by CBOE include equity options, security index options, Weeklys options, LEAPS options, FLEX options, and benchmark products such as the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM). CBOE Holdings is home to the world-renowned Options Institute and www.cboe.com, the go-to place for options and volatility trading resources.

 

Media Contacts:  

Analyst Contact:

Suzanne Cosgrove Gary Compton Debbie Koopman (312) 786-7123 (312) 786-7612 (312) 786-7136 cosgrove@cboe.com comptong@cboe.com koopman@cboe.com

 

CBOE-OE

 

CBOE®, Chicago Board Options Exchange®, CFE®, Execute Success®, FLEX®, LEAPS®, CBOE Volatility Index® and VIX® are registered trademarks, and BuyWriteSM, BXMSM, CBOE Futures ExchangeSM, The Options InstituteSM and WeeklysSM are service marks of Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated (CBOE). Standard & Poor's®, S&P® and S&P 500® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services, LLC and have been licensed for use by CBOE and CFE. All other trademarks and service marks are the property of their respective owners.

 

http://ir.cboe.com/press-releases/2015/31-07-2015a.aspx

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"VIX Options Product Specifications"

 

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX® (VIX®) OPTIONS

Symbol:
VIX

 

Underlying:
The CBOE Volatility Index - more commonly referred to as "VIX" - is an up-to-the-minute market estimate of expected volatility that is calculated by using real-time S&P 500®Index (SPX) option bid/ask quotes. The VIX Index is calculated using SPX quotes generated during regular trading hours for SPX options. The VIX Index uses SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to expiration and then weights them to yield a constant, 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index.

 

Multiplier:
$100.

 

Strike (Exercise) Prices:
Generally, minimum strike price intervals are as follows: (1) $0.50 where the strike price is less than $15, (2) $1 where the strike price is less than $200, and (3) $5 where the strike price is greater than $200.

 

Premium Quotation:
Stated in points and fractions, one point equals $100. Minimum tick for series trading below $3 is 0.05 ($5.00); above $3 is 0.10 ($10.00).

 

Expiration Date:
The Wednesday that is thirty days prior to the third Friday of the calendar month immediately following the expiring month.

 

Expiration Months:
Up to six contract months may be listed, provided that the time to expiration is no greater than 12 months.

 

Exercise Style:
European - CBOE Volatility Index options generally may be exercised only on the Expiration Date.

 

Last Trading Day:
The Tuesday prior to the Expiration Date of each month.

 

Settlement of Option Exercise:
The exercise-settlement value for VIX options (Ticker: VRO) shall be a Special Opening Quotation (SOQ) of VIX calculated from the sequence of opening prices during regular trading hours for SPX of the options used to calculate the index on the settlement date. The opening price for any series in which there is no trade shall be the average of that option's bid price and ask price as determined at the opening of trading.

The exercise-settlement value will be rounded to the nearest $0.01. Exercise will result in delivery of cash on the business day following expiration. The exercise-settlement amount is equal to the difference between the exercise-settlement value and the exercise price of the option, multiplied by $100.

 

Position and Exercise Limits:
No position and exercise limits are in effect. Each Trading Permit Holder (other than a market-maker) or TPH organization that maintains an end of day position in excess of 100,000 contracts in VIX for its proprietary account or for the account of a customer, shall report certain information to the Department of Market Regulation. The TPH must report information as to whether such position is hedged and, if so, a description of the hedge employed e.g. stock portfolio current market value, other stock index option positions, stock index futures positions, options on stock index futures; and for customer accounts, provide the account name, account number and tax ID or social security number. Thereafter, if the position is maintained at or above the reporting threshold, a subsequent report is required on Monday following expiration and when any change to the hedge results in the position being either unhedged or only partially hedged. Reductions below these thresholds do not need to be reported.

 

Customer Strategy-Based Margin:
Purchases of puts or calls with 9 months or less until expiration must be paid for in full. Writers of uncovered puts or calls must deposit / maintain 100% of the option proceeds* plus 20% of the aggregate contract value (current (spot or cash) index value x $100) minus the amount by which the option is out-of-the-money, if any, subject to a minimum for calls of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate contract value and a minimum for puts of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate exercise price amount. (*For calculating maintenance margin, use option current market value instead of option proceeds.) Additional margin may be required pursuant to Exchange Rules 12.3(h) and 12.10.

 

Customer Portfolio Margin:
VIX options are eligible for a portfolio margin account. VIX options are accommodated in the Broad-Based Index Volatility Indexes Product Group (500), with a 75% offset with the other classes contained in that Product Group. The magnitude of the valuation point range under CBOE Rule 12.4 (Portfolio Margin) for VIX options held in a portfolio margin account is +/- 20%. The price of the VIX futures contract with a corresponding expiration will be used to calculate theoretical gains and losses for VIX options. Additional margin may be required pursuant to Exchange Rule 12.10.

 

CUSIP:
12497K

 

Trading Hours:
Extended: 2:00 a.m. to 8:15 a.m. Central time (Chicago time).

Regular: 8:30 a.m. to 3:15 p.m. Central time (Chicago time).

http://www.cboe.com/products/indexopts/vixoptions_spec.aspx

Edited by OptionsEnthusiast™

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2015.08.21 VIX in comparison to the VXV/VIX ratio illustrating that this is one of the highest VIX spikes in the past three years starting on Wednesday after the FED released minutes of their meeting combined with extreme volatility in the international equity markets: 

 

post-655-0-31167400-1440166610_thumb.png

 

Source:  IB

 

2015.08.21 VIX in comparison to the VXV/VIX ratio over the previous two months so you can see the Greece volatility spike in comparison to the FED/International Equity Market Volatility Spike:

 

post-655-0-83257400-1440166479_thumb.png

 

Source:  IB

Edited by OptionsEnthusiast™

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http://seekingalpha.com/article/3372925-timing-the-vix-a-lesson-in-context?page=2

 

"Timing The VIX: A Lesson In Context"

Jul. 30, 2015 12:27 AM ET
 
Nathan Buehler

 

Summary
  • Context is often forgotten by VIX traders.
  • There are two main types of volatility events.
  • I use three main factors to determine the best reward for the risk.
 

In this piece we will try to examine a barometer for the VIX, so to speak.

In the past, many of you have had questions about timing. How do I know when to short the VIX? When should I exit my position? My response to these questions are usually the same; you have to think for yourself. I understand that answer probably isn't what you are looking for. However, each event in the VIX is different and there isn't a standard answer to that question.

In back testing the VIX futures, no one single strategy or exact parameter would be profitable 100% of the time. They could exist, but for reasonable returns, I haven't found them yet. The contango and backwardation strategy, which is posted here on Seeking Alpha (click on my articles from the author page), comes the closest to being a decent strategy and being quite profitable over time.

Context is the number one thing, in my opinion, that VIX investors overlook most when deciding on timing. For example, if I claimed to be a psychic, and people believed that I was, and posted that the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSEARCA:UVXY) would reach $100 per share in six months, you would immediately have people jump on the bandwagon to purchase it. What was the context of this prediction? Was it before or after another reverse split? The context of the prediction would determine whether it was profitable or not. Since we are not psychic we must rely on other intuitions.

We have limited data available on the VIX Index and even less data on the VIX futures. We have data available for the VIX futures going back to 2004 and the VIX Index going back to 1990. Are you familiar with this data? Do you understand the context? If not it would be wise to go back and research the market events that caused each of the spikes you see below.

Let's start by viewing the data:

26177453_14382022347115_rId4.png

Front month VIX futures contract since 2004:

26177453_14382022347115_rId5.png

Chart created by Nathan Buehler using data from The Intelligent Investor Blog.

Two different types of events

Before we get into our analyses we need to differentiate between different types of VIX events.

Political:

Political events tend to be short lived. Think of a tornado. Confined to a small path and usually does a lot of damage in a short period of time. Political events don't tend to significantly move the mean of the VIX over larger periods of time.

Recent examples:

  • Government shutdown
  • Debt ceiling
  • Greece exit
  • Flight MH17

Economic:

Economic events tend to be widespread and drawn-out. Think of a hurricane. Larger area of damage over a larger period of time. Negative economic events tend to move the mean of the VIX higher over larger periods of time.

Recent examples:

  • Recession of 2008 - Financial crisis
  • Recessionary fears of 2011 - Global growth fears

Both:

In rare cases political and economic events can happen together. Most often these are usually acts of war or more recently terrorism.

For example; September 11th, 2001, you had an act of terrorism (which I would define as political) that in turn negatively affected the entire economy.

How to use types of events in your timing decisions

By analyzing the type of event, you can more accurately predict how far the VIX will spike. For example, during the government shutdown and debt ceiling debates, neither side really wanted to inflict harm on the economy. However, they wanted to appear strong, make demands, and then kick the can down the road. This was a trivial event that only took a vote to end. These are your most profitable shorting opportunities as volatility will quickly subside, assuming positive economics, after it is over.

Economic events always require a bit of patience. If the VIX were to move from 13 to 20 in the next few weeks, you would immediately get people calling for a short in the VIX. What is the context of the event? Is it economic or is it political? What is the expected time frame for resolution? The result could be economic and the next move in the VIX could be to 26.

Sometimes the best answer is to wait and see. If you miss the first 10% decline in the VIX, that is completely okay. It is better than being stuck with a 20% gain in the VIX while being short.

Risk vs. Reward

Every trade I make, which is 2-5 trades per year in volatility, must meet certain reward objectives for the risk. I look at three main things.

  1. Political or Economic: we discussed this above.
  2. How far futures could enter backwardation; Backwardation represents your holding cost associated with the short position. Up to 20% and your holding costs are manageable if you expect a swift resolution to the problem. If futures move beyond 20% backwardation you begin to experience heavier compounding of the underlying long volatility product, especially leveraged products like UVXY. By using the contango and backwardation strategy, in my Seeking Alpha library, you could potentially avoid backwardation all together. However, you do lose some reward by reducing your risk.
  3. Level of the VIX: Obviously if the VIX is at 40 I might have a more aggressive strategy than if the VIX was at 22. The higher the VIX the higher the potential reward when betting on its decline. This also ties into the backwardation levels. If UVXY had already gained 500% during a recession, theoretically speaking, it really limits its further gain to a maximum of around 100%. By using the high level of the VIX and taking into account your backwardation costs, you can plan a highly probable and profitable trade.
Conclusion

Context during a rise/spike in volatility is everything. By realizing and taking into account the boundaries and possible outcomes of the event, you can more accurately predict the timing and size of your short position. For more information on how to short the VIX, please view my library of articles.

I hope you have found this helpful and that it answered some of your questions on timing. As I stated before, every event will be different and require an independent analysis. Current VIX futures are trading at the lower end of their respective range and this makes shorting UVXY too risky for the amount of reward possible.

As most of you know I am a school teacher and I am gearing up for the new school year. I have had a great summer tweeting, chatting, talking, messaging, and blogging with you. Most of my analyses will end until next summer but I will still post articles when profitable conditions present themselves. I hope to make time for at least one analysis per month, but I can't make any promises during the school year. The best way to keep in touch is to follow me here on Seeking Alpha, connect with me on social media, and subscribe to my blog for breaking news and supplements to my Seeking Alpha page. You can find all of those links here on my Seeking Alpha author page.

 

I hope you have a great and profitable end to 2015!

Edited by OptionsEnthusiast™

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Stock market crash

stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a significant cross-section of a stock market, resulting in a significant loss of paper wealth. Crashes are driven by panic as much as by underlying economic factors. They often follow speculative stock market bubbles.

 

Stock market crashes are social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behavior and psychology in a positive feedback loop where selling by some market participants drives more market participants to sell. Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditions:[1] a prolonged period of rising stock prices and excessive economic optimism, a market where P/E ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants.

 

There is no numerically specific definition of a stock market crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days. Crashes are often distinguished from bear markets by panic selling and abrupt, dramatic price declines. Bear markets are periods of declining stock market prices that are measured in months or years. While crashes are often associated with bear markets, they do not necessarily go hand in hand. The crash of 1987, for example, did not lead to a bear market. Likewise, the Japanese bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable crashes.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash

 

Stock market bubble

stock market bubble is a type of economic bubble taking place in stock markets when market participants drive stock prices above their value in relation to some system of stock valuation.

Behavioral finance theory attributes stock market bubbles to cognitive biases that lead to groupthink and herd behavior. Bubbles occur not only in real-world markets, with their inherent uncertainty and noise, but also in highly predictable experimental markets.[1] In the laboratory, uncertainty is eliminated and calculating the expected returns should be a simple mathematical exercise, because participants are endowed with assets that are defined to have a finite lifespan and a known probability distribution of dividends. Other theoretical explanations of stock market bubbles have suggested that they are rational,[2] intrinsic,[3] and contagious.[4]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_bubble

Edited by OptionsEnthusiast™

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"Bak's Sand Pile: Strategies for a Catastrophic World"

by Ted G. Lewis

Link: http://amzn.com/098307450X

"Modern societies want to avert catastrophes, but the drive to make things faster, cheaper, and more efficient leads to self-organized criticality-the condition of systems on the verge of disaster. This is a double-edged sword. Everything from biological evolution to political revolution is driven by some collapse, calamity or crisis. To avoid annihilation but allow for progress, we must change the ways in which we understand the patterns and manage systems. Bak's Sand Pile explains how."

Bak's Sandpile: Strategies for a Catastrophic World

https://youtu.be/fGSwMC3qYuk

"Self-organized criticality is a kind of tension that builds up in complex systems that causes them to fail, and the more self-organized criticalilty there is, the bigger the crash, the bigger the failure. So, an example would be the 2008 financial meltdown that we just experienced a couple of years ago. This is a classic example of a sandpile..."

Self-organized criticality

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-organized_criticality

Will the Global Plunge Protection Team build-up of self-organized criticality lead to the biggest financial collapse in the history of the world?

Edited by OptionsEnthusiast™

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