Vancouver Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 I'm in the one-week P605 & P600 CMG calendar. Long July 31, short July 24. CMG reports on July 21. Entered at different prices between $0.92 - $1.09. Averaging at about $1.00 which I believe is a good entry price. Spreads are wide - be careful! A few cycles back I entered at $1.25, exited at $1.30, and watched the price going all the way up to $1.75... 4 Quote
SeanM Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 (edited) I entered 605P calendar with the setup used in previous official trades (long August monthly, short July w4 for $3.05). Not a screaming buy, at 0.5% of stock price compared to a similar entry price in October 2014, though in February 2014 we paid ~0.7%. But, I had a gain of 36% entering at 0.5% last time, so I think the time risk is worth it. Note: July has 5 Fridays, so this is a 4 week trade. Edited June 30, 2015 by SeanM Quote
craigsmith Posted July 1, 2015 Posted July 1, 2015 I'm in the one-week P605 & P600 CMG calendar. Long July 31, short July 24. CMG reports on July 21. Entered at different prices between $0.92 - $1.09. Averaging at about $1.00 which I believe is a good entry price. Spreads are wide - be careful! A few cycles back I entered at $1.25, exited at $1.30, and watched the price going all the way up to $1.75... Thanks for the heads up. Just entered the P605 calendar for 1.10. I have been trying to get in for 2 days for 1.00-1.05 and it never happened. This is just a half position for me. Quote
BobS Posted July 1, 2015 Posted July 1, 2015 I entered 605P calendar with the setup used in previous official trades (long August monthly, short July w4 for $3.05). Not a screaming buy, at 0.5% of stock price compared to a similar entry price in October 2014, though in February 2014 we paid ~0.7%. But, I had a gain of 36% entering at 0.5% last time, so I think the time risk is worth it. Note: July has 5 Fridays, so this is a 4 week trade. Sean, appreciate the advice and entered yesterday at $3. From my limited experience, I like the set-up relative to earnings and agree the time risk is worth it given past performance. Hope the we have similar gains compared to previous trades. Thanks again, Quote
hoangkhoa Posted July 2, 2015 Posted July 2, 2015 It hard to get filled on CMG, spread is very wide. Got a few contract filled with strike between 600 - 610. i paid around $1.07 to $1.15 Quote
Vancouver Posted July 13, 2015 Author Posted July 13, 2015 Closed the 1-week P605 spread today @1.22. (+22% gain) With the stock 50 points higher than the strike of the spread, it was time for me to exit. Two interesting points: 1. Again, an example of how resilient the spreads are to moves in the underlying. 2. The 4-week spreads (long Aug 21, short July 24) are completely crushed today (the P605 spread is at $2.40), while the 1-week spread is really holding its value. Quote
Vancouver Posted July 13, 2015 Author Posted July 13, 2015 The ATM 1-week spreads are higher than $2.00 now!! Quote
Optrader Posted July 13, 2015 Posted July 13, 2015 Closed the 1-week P605 spread today @1.22. (+22% gain) With the stock 50 points higher than the strike of the spread, it was time for me to exit. Two interesting points: 1. Again, an example of how resilient the spreads are to moves in the underlying. 2. The 4-week spreads (long Aug 21, short July 24) are completely crushed today (the P605 spread is at $2.40), while the 1-week spread is really holding its value. I wouldnt say completely crushed as ATM 3 week calendar is still around 3.6 and it was around 3.8 last week. So this is not a crush. The far away calendars have got crushed though. The 1 week ATM at 2.0 ? Are you sure. Price keeps fluctuating. Quote
Vancouver Posted July 13, 2015 Author Posted July 13, 2015 When the P605 4-week spread is going to down from $3.60 on Friday to $2.40 today (earlier in the morning), that's a crush in my humble opinion... My guess is that prices will go up, and it seems like the market is somewhat extended. Spreads prices fluctuate all the time, and they fluctuate much more for high-price stocks. Which is why we always need to take some profits when the market is giving us the opportunity. AMZN is another great example with spreads prices going down today. Quote
Optrader Posted July 13, 2015 Posted July 13, 2015 AMZN dipped as I was surprised I got filled albeit at higher price and started filling up spreads at prices which were unattainable last week. I got into goog too. So overall market IV collapsed due to greece and almost across the board, the prices dipped, which is nice as we have time to recover from this crush. I think the theta is being taken out as it had been buit due to greece. Quote
Vancouver Posted July 17, 2015 Author Posted July 17, 2015 Back in the trade: 4-week P660 @ $3.10. Didn't see the ATM 4-week spread trading so low for many many cycles. Quote
Optrader Posted July 17, 2015 Posted July 17, 2015 Got in at 3.0 for 660p spread. Yes they are very good prices. May see 3.6/3.8 monday/Tue Quote
luxmon Posted July 17, 2015 Posted July 17, 2015 Just added more at 2.90. IV is up 5 points in the July4 options and only 0.5 pts in the Aug. Let's hope things normalize next week. Quote
Optrader Posted July 17, 2015 Posted July 17, 2015 Very strange that it dipped to 2.9 for ATM spread. We got in 2 weeks ago at 3.10-3.3 and saw prices go to 3.8 Quote
Vancouver Posted July 17, 2015 Author Posted July 17, 2015 It's actually not that strange... What's probably happening is that the market is pricing a bigger implied move in CMG post earnings after the big moves in GOOG and NFLX (+17% in both). The same thing is probably happening in AMZN. In addition VIX is now dramatically lower compared to where it was a week ago. So the short legs are pricing a bigger move, going up in value and reducing the spread price to historically low levels. I believe that this will be slightly reversed next week, but I'm not expecting the CMG spread to reach very high values that we've seen before this cycle. But I still believe that entering around $3.00 is a great entry point, just lower your expectations for huge gains. 1 Quote
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