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SeanM

EXPE May 2015 Calendar

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Earnings 4/30 AC.  

 

I entered a couple of 2 week calendars today.  Long May monthly, short May wk1.  98P @ $0.38, 98.5P @ $0.35.  

 

Based on my notes from a handful of other cycles, as well as notes from another member (almost certain it was Yowster, but I can't find the thread) these calendars fluctuated wildly in a range of 0.69% – 1.43% of the stock price on a per spread basis, with prices generally highest 2 days before ER.  At the current price of $99, that implies a range of $0.68–$1.42 per spread.

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EXPE is one I'm watching.  I'm looking at the 100 call calendar now - the mid is 0.30 and there is an unfilled bid at 0.35, which is not a good thing IMO as I don't like having to go more than a few cents away from the mid when buying & selling these low cost spreads.  Based the charts in the weekly discussion thread I could see the mid getting to the 0.70-0.75 range, but with lower options volume I must feel confident that I can open and close near the mid before I open a significant number of spreads (and I'm not sure EXPE will behave like that).  Note that the other lower cost spreads that show the potential for big gains the week of 4/27 (GPRO, TWTR, YELP, GILD) all have much higher options value so getting the prices near the mid is much more likely.

Edited by Yowster

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