Vancouver 54 Report post Posted April 21, 2015 PCLN reports on May 7. I bought the 1 week 1200P and 1190P calendar spreads yesterday @ 2.53, 2.55 and 2.58. Long May 15, Short May 8. I find these price very attractive. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Edwin 63 Report post Posted April 21, 2015 Thanks for posting this, I got 1205 puts at 2.39. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
equus 46 Report post Posted April 21, 2015 Prices dropped a bit, in at 2.38 and 2.40 on 1190P and 1200P, thank you Vancouver. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yowster 9,833 Report post Posted April 21, 2015 Vancouver - I know you like to track the upcoming candidates early, so I'm wondering how the current PCLN calendar price compares to what you can typically open the spread for around a week before earnings??? For a stock that can move a lot, I'll open the spread early if the price is much better than what I could get around a week before earnings - but if its in the same ballpark price then I'll typically wait a bit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bam1960 53 Report post Posted April 21, 2015 I entered 1/2 position 1190 puts @2.53 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 8,035 Report post Posted April 21, 2015 Thanks for sharing. Were you able to get filled anywhere near the mid? My notes show 0.4% for the double calendar which translates to 4.80 or 2.40 per spread. So the prices are good, but as mentioned, this stock can move a LOT, so opening so early is tricky. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
equus 46 Report post Posted April 21, 2015 Thanks for sharing. Were you able to get filled anywhere near the mid? My notes show 0.4% for the double calendar which translates to 4.80 or 2.40 per spread. So the prices are good, but as mentioned, this stock can move a LOT, so opening so early is tricky. Might be mistaken but I was quite surprised to get in about 0.15 below the mid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Edwin 63 Report post Posted April 21, 2015 I was filled at 2.39. Mid in TOS was showing 2.65 at the time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bam1960 53 Report post Posted April 21, 2015 At time I entered was below mid And yes a better entry would be .4% of stock did not check notes but still I think will be a good trade And only entered 1/2 position Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 8,035 Report post Posted April 27, 2015 You can see why I'm hesitant to enter this one, especially so early. The stock is at 1250 already. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bam1960 53 Report post Posted April 27, 2015 Yep lesson learned but up til today the 1190 put calendar had held up fairly well to the move but is starting to give it up now. Will probably adjust later this week but want see where it goes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
luxmon 233 Report post Posted April 27, 2015 You can see why I'm hesitant to enter this one, especially so early. The stock is at 1250 already. I fail to see the point of this comment - TSLA has moved much more than this on a percentage basis since the official trade was opened. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 8,035 Report post Posted April 27, 2015 Yes, but TSLA IV is much higher than PCLN - 65% compared to 38%, so TSLA is among stocks that will be more resilient. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vancouver 54 Report post Posted April 27, 2015 It is true that the trade is a bit off now, but note that the ATM calendars are still trading around 2.40-2.50. This means that the increase in calendar prices didn't happen yet... It's always difficult to know when this would start happening (and sometimes it doesn't...) but based on previous cycles, I expect calendar spreads which are out of the money by as many as 60-70 points to trade at least at $3.00 a spread. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bam1960 53 Report post Posted April 27, 2015 I actually had some partial fills of 260 call calendars @2.35 earlier this morning Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hoangkhoa 1 Report post Posted April 28, 2015 i got a few partial fills on on 1235C and 1240C yesterday morning for 2.20 and 2.30. I had 1240P and and 1250P filled at 2.35 this morning right after the open.. The put seems to be cheaper than the call Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dongsoong 3 Report post Posted April 28, 2015 Just got filled on 1250p at 2.35 with previous on 1200 at 2.45 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Optrader 142 Report post Posted April 28, 2015 Got in at 1250 calls at 2.30 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hoangkhoa 1 Report post Posted April 28, 2015 Any idea on how resilient these calendar can be ? can it hold value if stock moved 60 points ? i played it few cycle ago and the IV were all over the place on last 2 days before earning, i did exit for a profit but not as much as if i closed it few days before earning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 8,035 Report post Posted April 29, 2015 The rule of thumb is that price of the weekly straddle is more or less how far the price can go without the calendars suffering too much. For PCLN sit about 6-7% last time I looked. If the prices stay below 2.50 by Friday, I might consider it. The spreads are huge, but my impression is that fills are pretty good, sometimes even below the mid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vancouver 54 Report post Posted April 29, 2015 Note that the prices of the 1190P and 1200P spreads are back in the $2.30 - $2.40 range. ATM spreads are around $2.60 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vancouver 54 Report post Posted May 1, 2015 The mid on the 1200P is already around $3.00! And we still have next week. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hoangkhoa 1 Report post Posted May 1, 2015 most of my position on pcln are over 30% profit now.. are we expect this to run up to 3.5 - 4.0 near earning ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vancouver 54 Report post Posted May 1, 2015 I've seen this spread as high as $5.00 in some cycles... But at 30% gain, I always take some money off the table. I think $3.50 is highly likely next week. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 8,035 Report post Posted May 1, 2015 I agree. I checked previous cycles, and 3.50-4.00 was the average range a day before earnings. Of course, as we have seen with LNKD and FSLR, past cycles not always repeat themselves. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dongsoong 3 Report post Posted May 1, 2015 When I tried to close some 1250c at 3.00, hard to get filled. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
