Lessons From Apple Crash

[Kim]

Despite a healthy beat and dividend hike, shares of Apple (AAPL) are slightly down in after hours trading. They have lost now almost half of their value in the last 6 months.

During 2012, I warned several times that Apple has gone up too far too fast. When the stock was going up almost every day for no visible reason, I asked a simple question: what do we know today that we didn't know a month ago?

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[K. Miller]

I remember all the comments on any article mentioning Apple saying it will never go down, based on PE, earnings growth, or whatever.  Any time you start to hear that something just cannot go down, start looking for a spot to short.

[Mikael]

good thing i sold my positions around 680. laughing at the crash now when people are still writing about how cheap AAPL is from a P/E, ROE standpoint etc. 

 

hey Kim what program did you use to make the P/L graph in your seekingalpha article here? 

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/443011-apple-s-implied-volatility-what-does-it-tell-us

[Kim]

good thing i sold my positions around 680. laughing at the crash now when people are still writing about how cheap AAPL is from a P/E, ROE standpoint etc. 

 

hey Kim what program did you use to make the P/L graph in your seekingalpha article here? 

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/443011-apple-s-implied-volatility-what-does-it-tell-us

OptionsOracle

[Mikael]

thanks. also on an unrelated note, what do you mean when you say "futures are up/down/flat" in your daily updates? Are you looking at S&P500 or COBE futures? How does this tie in with our trading or portfolio management? 

Edited April 24, 2013 by Mikael

[Kim]

I'm referring to S&P futures. There is no direct impact, this is just for general information.

[Mikael]

thanks!