Topcat

Nick, I think you can safely assume that almost everyone on this board had investments in stocks, commodities or real estate and they have all been impacted by the shutdown. i hope you can recover soon. Best

ykotowitz thank you for well thought out reference to The Economist. I've subscribed off and on since 1986 and even had few small contributions in The Economist so I will take another look at the article you highlighted. tku

This is more micro than total market but I just heard from someone in the Stronach Group ( they own Santa Anita racetrack, Gulfstream etc), that Santa Anita Racetrack has been given clearance to open this Friday 5/15. What makes this newsworthy is Santa Anita racetrack is in Los Angeles County. Los Angeles County's Dr Ferrer made national news yesterday when she said yesterday that Stay-at-home order will likely remain in place for next 3 months, https://abc7news.com/la-county-coronavirus-update-stay-at-home-order-date-shutdown-quarantine-extension/6176163/ So go figure. idk if there is a stock/market play here. I had shorted CDHN Churchill Downs back when it was at 160, cashed profit at 120 (now at 98) I picked up DKNG, Draft Kings when it formed a cup at about 16, now 25.8 and know from discussion with executives that there is a pent up sports/gambling demand out there. UFC's Dana White is pulling it off with repeated testing of everyone. He said he as already been tested 3x and will continue to be tested. He has a relatively small stable of athletes compared to football, basketball etc. As much as I am for a more fact based nuanced approach to Covid-19 I just don't see how these sports or in person casino type gambling works now. Horse racing as many know allows online betting and the majority of their handle (race track term for betting $s) comes from online so they may have some opportunity but do your own fact based research.

Rapper Listen , I'm not trying to get you upset and I'm open to your POV and seeing data and any fact based posts you have . The only post of yours that I saw see in regard to CMS and DRG rates is below in regard to policy procedure. Are there others? On the mortality rate I first had a messages from Mark Cuban (we have communicated over the years) who questioned the shift in normal pneumonia deaths and BTW given the CDC guidelines that wouldn't be consider fraud -just misleading baseline data . Wan't advocating anything and takes Covid-19 very serious.-but asking good data questions. Per CDC, about 8,000 people die every day on average from all causes in the US, normally .161 from regular flu weekly so yes there is an increase in Covid -19 vs flu-no doubt . I haven't tallied the total US fatality numbers (source CDc) since April-see below (and of course NYs looked different) so fatalities must be up but at that time they were not actually exceeding YAG total fatalities -and even if they don't exceed it does not mean Covid-19 isn't serious and while the lagging increase in suicide (.9% for every 1% in unemployment per data the National Bureau of Economic Research and the medical journal Lancet.) is not getting much credence now , it will only increase the fatality . My answer to Mark is it is conceivable that regular flu deaths and regular pneumonia and regular COPD etc deaths are down due to shut down but data as Ywoster points out is very poor.. Your post: There’s no flat reimbursement for covid19 treatment. For patients utilizing Medicare, CMS groups Covid-19 with other respiratory illness and part of the reimbursement is calculated using what’s called DRG rates which are rates specific to a diagnosis. There will be a delta between various DRG and final reimbursement will depend on the specifics of treatment and what procedures were performed. commerial insurance would be unaffected in most cases by CMS guidelines. Approximately 70% of the population utilizes commercial insurance. Obviously the folks that don’t but have coverage ( Medicaid or Medicare) would likely be disproportionately represented on the high side among covid patients ( elderly are typically experiencing most severe cases). again, even if we want to argue deaths are being fraudulently calculated (no evidence), we would have to reconcile that belief with the fact that all cause mortality is up significantly in the US since the outbreak started and is up massively in certain other countries.

I appreciate your POV and I realize you are very sensitive to this issue since you work for a large heath care provider and probably have pride in that, BTW my wife is a health care professional who started with the American Heart Association over 30 years ago . So know I did not mean to impugn you or your/her profession and yet you must know that even prior to Covid-19 , $2.6 billion was recovered from fraudulent claims in the U.S, just the facts. I can’t say how much is going on now, I just know from two cases my wife told me that she heard a doctor say, "let’s just put it down as Covid-19". If you don’t think a 20% increase (or think 20% increase in stock dividend) when you can do it based on probable then we just have to agree to disagree on the nature of human nature.

I've never said taken the position it is just the flu , what I and my coworkers in data analytics have been saying for some time is that either the reported infection rate: the basic reproduction Number (R0) is wrong or the fatality rate is wrong, I believe it is the fatality rate , it is still very serious I believe because of the (R0) but many addressing Covid-19 are not using facts but just try emotional statements like "that's largely BS" and rather than refute with numbers or facts. At best it is really poor data analytics and at worst well, the most disturbing thing is that free speech or discussion isn't even allowed to take place.

There are at least 5 studies that suggest the actual fatality rate is much lower, and even Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer of LA County , who has been aggressive in her shutdown recommendations, said of one such USC study that found through testing that 12-15% already had Covid 19. Dr Ferrer said, "the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu". That finding is consistent with the results of an earlier antibody study in Santa Clara County. "The mortality rate now has dropped a lot," Ferrer conceded. And this is despite doctors being pressured to blur codes when it comes to Covid-19. The corona virus relief legislation created a 20% premium, or add-on, for COVID-19 Medicare patients so we shouldn't be suprised. if someone who dies of COPD is then coded as Covid-19. I know of at least 2 cases where the code was changed to Covid-19 when it may not have been as the patients were never tested for Covid, despite test being available, this is within the guidelines. The CDC guidelines, now say: "... it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as 'probable' or 'presumed.' "

Good question: The answer I think has partially to with modeling and advertising. Other questions: I think the other question that needs to be asked is why isn’t credence being given to other deaths caused by the shutdown? Not an either deaths vs $s : Not only does the shutdown create the hardships you mentioned but it kills. Suicides are already the #10 leading cause of death in the U.S., almost 48,000. Every 1% increase in unemployment results in .9% increase in suicide and thousands more committing suicide. ( medical journal Lancet) and the increases tend to be chronic lingering for years. For a concise analysis see the following that estimates an increase from suicide and drugs of 70,000. These don’t count? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/13/shutdown_could_kill_more_americans_than_covid-19_142934.html According to OC Register there has been an 8,000 % increase to suicide prevention calls. Normally one center that gets 22 calls a month last month got 1,800 calls, and sadly an increase in calls does correlate to an increase in suicide https://www.ocregister.com/2020/04/19/suicide-help-hotline-calls-soar-in-southern-california-over-coronavirus-anxieties/ Advertsing pays. In advertising there is a measure called GRP, gross rating points, it measure the breadth and depth of advertising. Marketers can predict with uncanny accuracy that if you increase the GRPs on an item it increase awareness an sales, just test yourself with some advertising slogans, The point is simple increase the GRPs and the GRPs on Covid-19 have been off the charts, more on any single day than the football on Superbowl Sunday. Modeling in Medical Field vs Facts: My background is in data analytics, but over 30 years I have met with friends in the health profession and we would discuss how poor the health field is with data analytics and computer science in general. Many studies done in the medical field fail to establish what the baseline vs incremental are and what the health field calls meta -studies have sample sizes that are so small that they would be laughed off the table by a consumer company. I could access AC Nielsen's 60,000 person database on any food item to check trends and had baseline numbers of over 1 million. I could distinguish the difference between baseline and incremental. The health field cannot easily do this To fill this void, the health field uses models. The problems with models is there is a high degree of supposition. You just change a number or two in a spreadsheet. And you can prove bumble bees cannot fly. Dr Faucci , who btw has never practiced a day of medicine, said as late as a Feb. 29, 2020, interview, Dr. Fauci said that at that time and under the circumstances pertaining to that date, “Americans didn't need to change their behavior patterns.” Then on March 31st he reversed course and cited models that said we could have 1.5 to 2 million deaths (not cases but deaths). This was widely repeated again and again without any allowed challenges to the model. What the baseline might be: Those of us in data analytics have been saying for some time either the infection rate , the basic reproduction Number (R0) is wrong or the fatality rate is wrong. Otherwise millions would be dead already. Remember the double a penny every day question, well in 34 days a penny ends up being worth over $ 160 million and the (R0) factor was stated at over 2x. It looks like the fatality rate is much much lower. This will only create cognitive dissonance for some people who are running with the emotion of the constant message, GRPs, but these are the facts on the ground. I know emotion almost always wins over logic but for a fact based study/analysis see comments by MD Dan Erickson, who with his partner has done half of the test in Kern County , over 5,200 hundred at last count. He has done 5,213 COVID-19 tests at its five Bakersfield locations, Erickson said — which is more than half the 9,197 tests done so far in Kern County. Of those, 340 were positive (6% of those tested) , according to Erickson. He says that If that percentage of positive cases (65) were assumed to represent the entire population of Kern County, which is roughly 900,000, it would mean about 58,000 people in Kern have had the virus, far more than the nearly 700 official confirmed, Erickson said. Using the same calculation, Erickson estimates 12 percent of the population statewide, or some 4.7 million Californians, have already had COVID-19. "Well we have 39.5 million people, if we just take a basic calculation and extrapolate that out, that equates to about 4.7 million cases throughout the state of California. Which means this thing is widespread, that's the good news. We've seen 1,227 deaths in the state of California with a possible incidents or prevalence of 4.7 million. That means you have a 0.03 chance of dying from COVID-19 in the state of California," said Dr. Erickson. Dr. Erickson asked if numbers that low necessitated people sheltering in place, shutting down medical systems and putting people out of work. "I also wanted to mention that 96 percent of people in California who get COVID recover," he said. He has been censored for even asking these questions, if you want to see it I think you can still see it here: https://www.kget.com/video/local-doctor-from-accelerated-urgent-care-gives-take-on-covid-19-in-kern-county/5416469/ And to try and understand the censorship I understand them to say yes, but he hasn’t tested everyone in the US, extrapolating isn’t right but bear in mind he wasn’t advocating running around but essentially asked the same questions Kim did But this is the 5th study that confirms this, much lower fatality rate 1) First Iceland that randomly tested people in the population then 2) Stanford study of Santa Cruz, 3) USC Study (numbers similar to Kern County) and even 4) NY. Governor Andrew Cuomo Cumo said a preliminary survey of New York state residents found that nearly 14% of those tested had antibodies against the novel coronavirus, suggesting that some 2.7 million may already have been infected. And even Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said of the USC study, "the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu". That finding is consistent with the results of an earlier antibody study in Santa Clara County. "The mortality rate now has dropped a lot," Ferrer conceded. I’m not suggesting anyone does anything different right now as we will find out more as more studies come in but it is interesting to see the resistance to any questioning of this shutdown and after this long post I have more questions than answers.

Agree-you can go bankrupt if the return on other years are really negative if you put morethan 3%. I can't find returns for other years? can anyone else? Also I'm not sure how this would be different from buying SPY puts for long term stock portfolio insurance, say 15 to 20% below current levels or maybe even putting a tiny % into 3x inverse funds. Essentially portfolio insurance would cost you a small % off the top of total returns over years but in the down years like 2008/2009 and recent it smooths things out-allowing you to stay invested. I do like Universa's article on the "volatility tax" https://www.universa.net/riskmitigation.html

CXMelga, There are a number of cheat sheets out there but this speaks to what Kim just outlined: Options directions: An easy way to remember the difference between puts and calls is that a call gives you the right to “call in” a winning stock, while a put gives you the right to “put off” a bad stock on someone else. But more specifically: Selling a call = you are obligated to sell stock at strike price to buyer AND you are ONLY obligated to sell stock at the strike price IF THE OPTION OWNER ELECTS TO BUY THE STOCK (because it is higher.) Many times options expire and become worthless. (get premium or cash) Buying a call = you have the exercisable right but not obligation to buy stock from the seller at strike price Selling a put = you are obligated to buy stock at strike price from buyer if price of stock is at put price or lower-if higher it expires worthless (get premium or cash) Buying a put = you have the exercisable right but not obligation to sell stock to the buyer at strike price

on getting filled: I wonder if some brokerages or software front ends are better, quicker than others? Like a lot of you, I have several brokerage accounts and sometimes i have placed the same order at different brokerages within a minute or two only to have one order filled within minutes and the other hours later or not at all. Not sure this has anything to do with the brokerage and I suspect it has more to do with volume and orders coming it. Still, does anyone have any evidence on one being better than another?

The product looks good but are there any plans to expand the back test period beyond 3 years?