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Sirion

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Everything posted by Sirion

  1. Sirion
    Closing INTU at some point today. Earnings AC.
  2. Sirion
    ADI Dec15'17 90 CALL @CBOE @ 2.25, around 10am on Nov 15. I entered late and benefited from the market dip to get a good price.
  3. Sirion
    Sold out of ADI at end of day for 30% gain. Took the win with how volatile the markets have been lately, and I still have a short vol position rolling into tomorrow so wanted to ease off the gas a bit.
  4. Sirion
    Ah crap, I missed out on INTU. Considering it's solid uptick today and the short term nature of the trade, going to pass on it. In good news, my order on AMAT got filled, I'm out for 40% profit. It's continued upward from there another 8% or so, so if you've held on good for you! ADI is getting close to target. I may take it off the table at EOD if it's still over 30% gain.
  5. Sirion
    Oops. Forgot to close CSCO for slight loss yesterday. Would have been about a 12% loss. Thought earnings was tomorrow... that's what I get for relying on IB's earnings date email. Got super lucky though, closed for 170% gain. On the plus side, ADI and AMAT are doing well today. Personally, I'm going to hold until this afternoon. There's a chance it'll pull back though. I will continue to hold ADI as well until profit targets are hit.
  6. Sirion
    A/B testing is running two different options simultaneously in order to see which one performs better. It's often used in marketing, such as presenting a two different versions of a website randomly to 50% of the population in order to see which one gets better desired results (ad clicks, longer stay, purchases). Good choice. :|
  7. Sirion
    In CSCO as a long 35 long call at .47. We can use this as an A/B test of sorts. Are you still in NVDA?
  8. Sirion
    I'm not strongly defending his process, just saying his data is based off of EOD bid/ask, not real fills, just as the rest of the back-test data was. He would have "entered" when NVDA was 207.20, as opposed to ~209 when I opened. That's a very significant difference.
  9. Sirion
    Pretty sure the EOD pricing on the prescribed day was very low, and it may have passed 40% gain here. This is just a timing fluke. NVDA happened to dip significantly after most of us entered. On the other side, we've had a couple of trades where we hit 40% before EOD ever hit on some of these trades. These things happen. Also, I don't think he can see this forum. I'm holding NVDA. Still below even.
  10. Sirion
    I'm personally holding. It feels strange to not give a trade like this at least a day or two, given how volatile the underlying is. This adds risk, but given how the backtest works (only using EOD pricing) it doesn't seem right to stop-loss out on the first fluctuation down. I think that would add more losers than winners (getting out the first time you cross 40% intraday most likely adds winners to the backtest, though probably lowering average win overall).
  11. Sirion
    ADP closed for 1.55 (just under 25% loss) as it recovered a little from it's morning dip. I believe I got a favorable fill on this one. I wouldn't be surprised if this carried up further today, but this is the last day of the trade and it hasn't really ever shown good stuff. Regarding this being a bull market only trade: this is why I'm only taking "the best of the best". If I see 9 wins 3 losses, I'm probably going to pass. 2 losses or less signals to me that it's LESS likely this is just a bull beneficiary and more a sign of a stock with "genuine earnings optimism". These are fuzzy terms, and I recognize that. If the market gets choppy and fearful, I will stop doing these trades most likely with one set of heavy losses. @akito @krisbee Just curious if you're running a different trading plan: why are we taking earnings early here? That trade is supposed to go a while longer, and the cml backtest had a take-gains of 40% limit. --------------- NVDA - 40 Delta Call - Nov 10 Weekly - Close on 11/8 (Earnings 11/9 AMC) - Opened 217.5 strike for 5.60 shortly after opened higher
  12. Sirion
    I'm going to try to limit my overall number of positions, and my "normal" allocation is a 1/4 SO position (2.5%). It would be good to look to see if there are any reverse situations, but like you said it will be hard to find a stock with negative momentum into earnings (sears or kmart anyone?). This is more feeling than having looked at the data, but individual stocks can resist the movement of the broader market sometimes, and it seems like these types of stocks (optimism into earnings) should be more likely than others to do so. I suppose we will wait and see. If we have a few winners under our belt by the time it happens, the pain should be limited. I'd advise everyone against rapidly ramping up their position sizing for this exact reason. ------------------- MAR - 40 Delta Call - Nov 10 Weekly - Close on 11/1 (Earnings 11/1 AMC) - Opened 122 strike for 2.00 during dip http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11777&app=news&cml_article_id=20171026_the-one-week-pre-earnings-momentum-in-marriott-international
  13. Sirion
    I misunderstood your suggestion. I think what you have posted would be great.
  14. Sirion
    My concern is to not flood the forum with posts for this type of trade when only a subset will be interested. Unlike the straddle trades, this isn't even a standard SO trade-style. Perhaps a CML Unofficial Trade Ideas subforum is in order?
  15. Sirion
    Backtest was done with 3-days to entry and is designed to capitalize on upward momentum (the thesis of the trade is that some stocks tend to have rising prices, or optimism, into earnings consistently). We're not seeing that on ADP this cycle so far. The only reason I'm not exiting is that I've already paid commissions to enter. It may or may not go the other way for the last day of this trade, but based on the thesis - not really? This is a pretty new trade idea so it's not fully fleshed out.
  16. Sirion
    Sold out of BABA at 40% gain. Still looking for a favorable entry to MAR, missed out on that one. Haven't quite stoplossed out of ADP due to entering lower than @NikTam.
  17. Sirion
    This one was very volatile today. I'm thinking about how to deal with that, considering the CML Back tests will only stop-loss out at EOD pricing. Since I'm a strike higher due to a worse entry, I held until tomorrow. I guess we'll find out how that works out.
  18. Sirion
    Pretty sure Thursday. Yes, Nov 10 40 delta. Trade must be closed by stop-loss or win%, or 1 day before earnings (11/8). Closed YUM for .45, 57% loss. Again, lucky it was even smaller than my normally very small trade size for this type of play.
  19. Sirion
    NVDA confirmed 11/9 AC earnings. That puts us entering Thursday Edit: Entered BABA a little later than NikTam, 40 delta was Nov 3 185 call for me. Entered at 3.65. Entered ADP at a better price, Nov 3 119 for 2.00 Yum has dipped more. Looking to exit at a loss. Got lucky that I kept that one smaller than normal due to the strangle also active.
  20. Sirion
    I exited at 4.20 with an order I set before I stepped away before lunch. Currently at 4.35 45% gain before commissions in two days. Solid win.
  21. Sirion
    Strategy calls for taking profits at 40%. Backtesting yields greater results due to always closing at end of day. Where you actually close is up to you.
  22. Sirion
    Getting a few more opportunities in this one than I thought. For now, I'm entering YUM as a ~1/8th position because I currently have a YUM strangle going and don't want to overexpose. Moving forward I'm going to have to consider how to handle that. Overall, I also want to make sure my profile doesn't become too long delta. (Raises the question if we could get some inverse trades going, but in this bull market I honestly doubt it)
  23. Sirion
    That seems to be the expectation, but I don't know if it's been confirmed yet or not. I entered at 2.90 a few minutes ago. I don't think it would actually fill at 2.75. Maybe 2.85, now that TTWO's come back a little.
  24. Sirion
    NVDA should be noted as upcoming but I have yet to find earnings confirmation. What strike did you enter this one at? 40 delta might be different, this has run up quite a bit today. Sad to have missed it.
  25. Sirion
    Anyone else have IB's P&L completely broken for combo trades? Individual securities and total for account are showing (and total for account appears to include combo trades, though I haven't dug into accuracy as I don't have yesterdays mark for all of the combo trades), but all combo trades show n/a. Moderately annoying though somewhat unnecessary for trading.