Sirion
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Everything posted by Sirion
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COST sold for 3.1, 40% profit target hit. ADBE and ORCL back in the green. MU still looking grim, but not worth the commissions to close. Refraining from adding wood to that one.
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MU is getting painful as well. At this point it's not worth the commissions to close.. I'm going to break a rule and not use a stop loss, ugh. At least COST was up before it came down for me, still ~10% in the green. It has time. ORCL gave away some of it's gains. Not sure what's going on with tech. Sold NAV for ~70% profit (missed the peak a bit). Covers a bit of the pain. Thanks @krisbee NAV straddle doing pretty swell too. Not really at profit taking levels. I went with a strangle too, but at least only 4:1 ratio.
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I re-entered a little while ago at 2.87.
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It seems my timing was very fortunate. I may re-enter today as well.
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Closed for 4.35. About 40% gain with commissions.
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On pullback, I entered the ADBE Dec 15 177.5 for 3.10.
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ADBE earnings are 12/14 http://www.adobe.com/investor-relations/calendar.html Still "tentative" I guess but I don't expect they'll move it <1 week out.
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Main difference between yours and mine is mine closes 0 days before earnings. ADBE apparently has a tendency to spike on the last day. Still not sure what the difference between mine and what @krisbee posted is to get all the way to 7-1. I might wait for a dip in ADBE unless I figure out what that is, or worst case just trade the last day?
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Just a heads up, cml backtesting does not show a clear edge this far away from earnings for COST. I plan on waiting until 3 days out like what was written up on their newsletter. Edit: Purely based on cml. I'm not a chart or TA guy.
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I'm having trouble recreating this is the issue. Best I'm seeing is 6-2 with 194% return. Stop limits don't seem to be coming into play: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171207153119_qoMZ1HjrZXnAw1V1
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Which timeline did you pick for this? I'm having trouble getting cml to register me as logged in so I can bring up custom earnings to see your entry/exit timing.
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So, we have a few trades coming up that were broadcast. ORCL, MU, and COST. All were advertised for 3-days out. ORCL also works well for 7-days out. http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171207144431_883OQqBMK6OUaCMq The other two do not. I'm considering looking for a dip to buy in ORCL until the 3-day mark as a strategy.
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I went back in for a second pass on a pullback. Overall, slight loss.
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Closed AVGO at 2.30. 57% loss. Ouch. This one could have benefited from a stop loss.
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Closed PLAY at a slight loss (then it immediately popped and could have closed for a slight win). ~5% loss. Closed VEEV for a ~20% loss. Unfortunate day. AVGO deep underwater. Has one day left in it, going to let it ride.
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Ouch. Personally, I'm going to give some room. I don't want to use a sharp intraday stoploss, as our backtesting only closes at EOD. I'm going to let it run unless something drastic happens.
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It was up at the open too. I was +20% at one point. Now down almost 30%. Rough. If it drops much more might have to stop loss.
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CML just released: http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11825&app=news&cml_article_id=20171130_the-one-week-pre-earnings-momentum-trade-with-options-in-dave--busters-entertainment&source=TM_insights for PLAY with entry of today. Thinking of re-entering? Personally, I would consider entering on a dip if I saw one. May open anyway at EOD unless it just tears up like crazy.
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Was in AVGO for 277.5 calls at 5.30. Just got filled to sell for 7.50. Timing helps. I'll be watching to see if this one looks good again in time for a 3-day pre-earnings entry.
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I need to set up some kind of reminder for these published cmlviz trades, unless they already have something. It'd be nice if they published something like a calendar when they update, with links back to the proposed trades or something? Otherwise, I'm just going to have to figure out how to set an alert the day before/day of the published entry date? I missed out on KR too, but simply because I overlooked it. Does anybody use a desktop tool for reminders like this?
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@krisbee VEEV with another break downwards today. Still holding off?
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Hmm. Not bad. 5-2, but very small losses relative. Expiration: 10 Days Risked: $162 Total Return: $332 % Return:205% Avg % Return:30.4% Commissions:- % Wins:71.4% Wins: 5Losses: 2 Avg Win: $71Avg Loss: ‑$12 Avg % Win: 45.9%Avg % Loss: -8.3% Gross Gain: $356Gross Loss: ‑$24 Open today (6 days before earnings) close day of earnings. Similar results for entries closer in. Edit: Going 3 year adds a couple of bigger losers with my setup.
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http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11801&app=news&cml_article_id=20171110_intelligent-options-trading-right-after-earnings-in-target-corporation&source=TM_insights Thoughts on entering this late given the downward move the stock has made since the "official" entry?
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Technically, if you want to follow the back-test formula, you will enter at EOD, and then close at EOD if profit >40% or loss >30/40%(depending on the back-test). Personally, I will set a profit target if I'm not able to actively check in for a given period of time (hour or two), and otherwise come back and take a look, but generally take the win at 40%. Sometimes you'll continue running up, sometimes you'll wait for a bigger win and watch your profits evaporate entirely. Honestly, now that I think about it, we should probably evaluate the value of a target gain on each underlying. If it increases the win-rate significantly, set it and follow it religiously. If not, let it ride (or profit take in steps, letting some amount of principle ride). I'd be interested in hearing thoughts. @krisbee I missed getting filled on your original note (by minutes! ) but went ahead and bought a dip later on, just got GTC'd out at 40% profit on the Dec 1 21.5 call at .70, looks like it's already gone for .75 right before close. Thanks! Can't regret not forcing the buy for .35 for too long.
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Closed position at 3.80, juuust under 40% after commissions.