tjlocke99

Obviously Kim, Marco, and Lee - you are way more advanced then I am. That is why I am trading a very, very small % of my portfolio. Simulating trading has not worked for me, because at least with my broker, with simulated trading they will only execute the order at the bid for a short and the ask for a long. In many of these trades that completely distorts the P&L. All this being said, I thought, that the general statement that I have read is that the market tends to overprice risk and thus options are generally more expensive to purchase then they "should" be. The same as insurance, its likely something you need, but the people selling you it are making money off you. Chris - the analysis you describe is pretty wild, but I not clear how from a software perspective you do it all. Is it really all done in Excel? Where are you getting 1 day option bar? Marco - your point on a 2d move is well taken. How do you decide what ICs to enter? Also what terminology are we using? Are we saying longing an IC getting a debit and shorting an IC is getting a credit (shorting also what Kim has been calling RIC)? Thanks! R

Chris, What books or web resources would you recommend for trading ICs (not RICs)? If we don't want to get as complex as you are to start then what do you recommend? I have looked at ICs on stocks with high prices, and you when you look for monthly options about 30-40 days out, the strikes that are 2 standard deviations away are almost worthless and with the bid/ask you lose alot of money as soon as you enter the trade! Thanks! Richard

Great points Marco. Thank you.

Marco, This new link works thank you! I am primarily using this data and statistics to decide how to price Iron Condors (long ICs - since that term seems to have different meanings depending on the book I read, I mean where I short an OTM and long a further OTM on both the put and call side). I want to enter the IC around the time the next month monthly options come out and hold for maybe 30 days. I am actually thinking that simply the historic price range over similar periods of time may be a better way to price the IC. Does anyone in this group have any thoughts on this? I don't like the technical analysis where people look for trend lines or similar technical analysis. Its a bit too much like reading tea leaves to me. Does anyone know if Open Interest data can be downloaded anywhere on a specific option? I think CBOE has OI on the entire market. Thanks! Richard

Also Marco this maybe a result of the file being corrupted, but the Px Change column has a formula using the natural log function (LN). Is that correct? If Px is price change than should it be simple subtraction of the current close from the previous close? Next the Volatility 30d, etc. fields all calculate the STDDEV and then multiple that by the square root of the calendar year days field? If that is correct then could you explain why this is done? Thank you!

Hi Marco. When I download and attempt to open the workbook I get an error. Could you try and post it again? Maybe as a new file with a different name? Thank you!

Thank you very much Marco!

Thank you Marco. This is pretty impressive. I didn't double check your std deviation calc yet, but I will let you know when I do!

This is completely off-topic but is there a way to not have to click "Follow this topic" every time a new thread comes out!

Hah! Chris I can't tell if your "VERY COMPLEX" is meant to be a joke? Sorry! I think I am going to replicate this type of spreadsheet, BUT I think maybe Yahoo has high/low which I like better. Are there any good tidbits like this in the Augen Excel book? R

Knowing the 1 and 2 Standard Deviation moves of the underlying is quite useful. I know Chris often brings these up in his post, but I think he calculates them himself based on his own database. Does anyone know sources of this data or if other metrics can be used like Average True Range (ATR)? Also, does the standard deviation go off high/low or open/close? Thanks! Richard

Thanks Chris. So is the reason you entered this trade last Friday versus say Weds, so that you leave yourself that chance of getting that large price move with the minimum theta decay? Also, just so you know my screen name is tjlocke99, but my name is Richard. Richard

Chris, How is it this trade isn't profitable with apple currently at approximately 560.80 (down 1.52% today). Richard

smasterlee, I think you too the opposite of Chris's trade. Chris "sold" the Iron Condor (aka a Reverse Iron Condor). Thus he WANTS the stock to make a large move. Your butterfly seems very risky.

Kim, A technical forum question. I am following the "Intermediate forum". You now posted this article. If I don't choose to follow this article will I still get the replies to it e-mailed to me? I am following the parent forum called "Intermediate forum", but I'm not sure I get anything other than the first post that way. Thanks! Richard

NIce article Kim. A major question though. When you say: If this is the case then why in our earnings plays would we purchase weeklies? Also, You would ratio one of the sides of the straddle (not sure what the technical options term for it is though) and make it delta neutral that way. OR something I am experimenting with is if I have the 50 straddle and the option goes to 55 then I could add an order of puts to make it delta neutral. It does increase my investment, but I just start a little smaller to begin with. Thanks again for this article.