EricSimpson1

Whoever came up that rule is a scumbag. Is there any way to fight it?

I have no idea where AAPL stock will end up but I really think it will be a lot tougher for them without Jobs. He may have a been a manipulative psychopath, but he had the extremely rare ability to see what most people wanted before they even knew it.

Kim, is there a certain level on the VIX where you would not enter a calendar trade? I know it's rare, but my concern is that when the big market moves occur, they tend to be clustered together, and this period of high volatility can last for a few months.

Most of your losses came from ADM, which I assume you were forced to hold through because of Hurricane Sandy. That type of event occurs once every several decades. If you throw that result out, you are doing a pretty good job with the pre-earnings IV strategy.

Nate Silver's statistical models have been reasonably accurate in the past. Right now he has Obama at an 85% chance of winning. Intrade has Obama at a 64% chance. Many other betting sites are predicting an Obama win. I don't know what the market will do but I wouldn't be surprised if it has priced in an Obama victory by the time the results come out. Romney winning would probably cause a larger move either way, because he has longer odds. I don't plan on trading the election but I'll keep an eye on my QCOM pre-earnings straddle due to the possible impact on IV. I might get out a day earlier.

Looks like guidance was below expectations. Oh well, out at 0.10. About 90% loss.

Earnings are 11/1 after close. I'm going to hold through and sell on 11/2, unless it gets above 14 before then. I don't have much money in it so I can take a 100% loss. SODA is another stock that repeatedly bounces off of strong support, but the time frame is a bit shorter and the support changes every few months. Like SKUL it has an extremely high short float(>50%) and short ratio(>10). It also has positive earnings(so the fundamentals aren't completely broken, otherwise it would drop steadily like RSH). Market cap is also at least in the hundreds of millions. If anyone finds more companies with those characteristics let me know. If the chart shows similar behavior to SODA and SKUL, that might be the formula for a great "trading stock."

Actually nevermind what I just said. I'm going to break all the common trading rules again and chase this stock. This is too good to pass up. Bought some Nov 12 calls at 0.95.

Well now it looks very tempting, I'm still going to wait a couple weeks. Many good pre-earnings trades are coming up and I need to focus on those. Good luck to you guys who just bought and don't be surprised to see some manipulation of the stock and a small jump in price at the end of the day today.

If it's still down in the 12's or low 13's two weeks from now I might pick up some calls to hold through earnings. I rarely go directional on earnings because usually it's not worth it but in this case I think a lot of negativity is already priced in. Short float and short ratio are still insanely high and it's not too horrible of a company.

Got filled earlier this morning at 1.70. About a 40% gain after commissions.

I have a sell order set at 1.65 on the Oct 12.5 calls. I think it'll get there eventually.

I'm still holding. I'm probably not going to sell until it gets up to the 14's.

Out of the second trade at 2.98. 17% loss.

I probably need to shorten my holding time more for these trades. Out at 1.41. 15% loss after commissions.