semsem24

I have been using tradier now and I am wondering how they account for the account value . I did several trades that did well however my account value according to them doesn't increase .. I didn't get to audit each transaction but I was wondering if anyone else had the same experience

Thanks @SBatch & @clems

I am wondering if anyone has figured out a good way to calculate the P & L and track tradier trades since their software is so basic . I am using a word document and typing everything by hand for right now " I am not the best with software applications "

just an FYI , I back tested this one after I opened a small position , this is not the best trade ..I back tested GOOG iron butterfly for me to get the credit i want GOOG need to be very close to 950.00 on the last week prior to option expiration , even in the last few days prior to this option expiration ..so I am having some doubt on this one but I think we have a good idea that need some tweaking

I was thinking about the iron butterfly trade that @cuegis mentioned before . I think his criteria are high IV stock that drops and the IV remains elevated . I am opening this topic for all of us to contribute with stocks that we see match this criteria. Those stocks need to be range bound for the most part . Also I would love to hear critique of this trade as well as ideas to manage the trade if it goes wrong . Early this morning I was able to open GOOG 950-945-955 Aug 18 iron butterfly for a credit of 4.72 ..so this is a good risk reward given that I was able to get most of the credit in this trade with risking only 0.28 to gain 5.00 . having said that I don't plan on trying to get 5.00 and I would like to close somewhere in the top 3.00 range if the market give me that . One of the questions I have is trade management , what do you guys do if the market goes the wrong way and let us say GOOG rallies hard or drops hard in the next few days ..My biggest trade management approach is position size , along with that , I wonder what do you do

I want to update this trade , The first time I was able to open this trade since my original post was on Thursday 06/01 at 3.57 . I opened AMZN . I didn't have it in me to stick to the plan that I wrote and posted above . I felt that the 1000.00 will be a magnet on option expiration day so I got a little nervous as amzn went higher . in Any case I bought the 995.0 for 6.00 , sold the 1002.5 for 2.00 and closed the whole trade for 7.4 . in a for 6.00 , out for 9.4

It would however the price was over 6.00 yesterday at 3.45 so I passed

I am looking at this trade and I am not sure if you opened it or not , now the stock moved higher , I am thinking .. what would have happened if you opened both sides , the calls and the puts ..the other question is when would you close it I looked at 145/147 and sell 150/155 and I used TOS on demand for April 26 when the stock was at 150.00 . Have you done this trade and the stock moved in the direction we expected , it just happened too fast , you would have lost 70.00 per spread .

Thank you all for your input I was thinking about this trade and I decided to try it every Thursday with a very small position , I will try to make it mechanical as much as I can to take the human emotion part out of it ..I put few rules to make it mechanical Here are the rules I will follow : 1- Open on Thursday after 3.45 if the straddle price is under 6.00 . 2- Once the straddle is open , I will put for a vertical with a 10.00 width if I can get $ 2.00 for it " this will work rarely " about 10 % of the time " but I will try to maximize the winners" e.g if the straddle open at 950.00, I will put a GTC order to sell 960 calls or 940.00 puts for $ 2.00. 3- Most of the move happens in the morning and the stock stabilize at 12.00 pm , so will check the trade at 12.00 pm and close it if a vertical didn't open for the best I can get , this also will serve as a mental stop loss if the stock didn't move much .." this is my mental 20 % stop loss " if the trade happen to be a vertical then , I will put an order to sell the vertical for 9.7 " 10.00 wide vertical " 4- If the trade is still open at 3.15 " only happen if it became a vertical that didn't sell for 9.7 " then I will close it for what I can get bet 3.15 and 3.30 I will try to report back how it goes

Thank you so much for the data you put together @krisbee From looking to the data , it seems to me that 20 % stop loss was helpful most of the time ..so it is a good addition . When I looked into the winners , it seems to me that taking 20 % win was too conservative . if I understood the table correctly there was 6 winners not in gray 4 out of those 6 winners the move was higher and we could have gotten 100 % . If the success of the trade is close to coin toss but we only loose 20 % and make some where between 50 - 100 % , we may have a winner . It is not an easy trade and it has to be a small position . I also understand that looking at pure stats is one thing however playing the market with money on the table takes much more guts .

I agree that this is a high risk high reward that is why position size need to be very small 2 - 3 % at the most . I am trying to take the luck out of it by looking into back testing . For example , can we say that if the straddle price compare to ATR is 0.4 (5.2 / 12.2) , we have good statistical odds ? Also , for argument sake if I stuck with my target of 10.00 or waited till 15.30 to close the trade , I would have done better ..in that case even if I have next week an 80 % looser , I am still up on the trade. Also , I understand that the straddle price is so cheap right now that is why this trade was done few years ago as an RIC with a 10 - 20 - % profit target . Just food for thought , the other question , if we want to back test such an idea , is there a good way or a software that can do that ? or we have to go manually with something like on demand on TOS ?

Yesterday at around 3.30 I opened AMZN weekly straddle for 5.22 and sold it this morning for 8.50 at 9.32 , My initial target was 10.00 then I was afraid that the stock price will drop and the gap higher and sold at 8.5 . Have I held , I would have gotten my 10.00 target or even more . My reasoning for the trade was that the straddle was so cheap and AMZN ATR " Average True Range " from finviz.com is 12.71 . Based on this , I felt that the odds are in my favor . My question to our options traders community Did anyone do a back testing on making a trade like this mechanical and we can do it every week . I am sure not every week will be a winner but I have a good feeling that at the current VIX price and straddle price we will end up being winner at a good number of weeks where the totality of the trade will be a winner . I have been following a different board years ago and they were doing RIC on GOOG and AMZN on Thursday near the close and close it on Friday morning with a target of 10 % for overnight holding .. feel free to chime in with your thoughts and / or data

Thanks Chad , I will give it a shot

Hello, I want to see if some of you have more feed back on Tradier . The fee they charge seem very cheap and it might be worthed . I am also wondering if there are hidden fees @luxmon I am not sure in your opinion , it is still worthed because of how cheap they are or there is too much going on with them that it may not make sense I am also thinking that the cheaper fees can open up a new area for us where we can trade cheaper calendars and book some gains without the worry about the fees Also is that deal for the foreseeable future with no changes or they can switch the rates after a period of time ?? please advice Thanks

based my pre-testing on TOS once the earning announced if I am right , this calendar should be between 8 to $ 10.00 .. so the risk is either a 50 % hair cut if they go to the last week in April or a 3 times increase in the price of the options

There is that risk for sure however from looking at all their April announcements , they never announced that late . the only time they announce that late is when they announce at the end of Jan or beginning of Feb . I think we will know soon

cmg is expected to announce earning this week based on previous trends . I just opened a 1 week calendar at 3.4 by being long april 4 th week and short short April monthly . Everything I look at leads me to believe that earning date should be announced this week and it is expected to be on Tuesday April 19th after market hours . feel free to tell us your opinion

What can justify an early entry is the SLIM possibility of them pushing out a week to report earning in the week starting May 11th ...if that were to happen your money will almost triple