I always like to use the analogy of the whole stock market.
The stock market indexes produce average return of 10-12%, but that included several drawdowns of 20-30%. Some of those drawdowns lasted months or even years. Nothing goes up in a straight line.
So, if you joined the stock market based on a long time return of 10-12%, would you quit if you experienced a 30% drawdown? If the answer is yes, then the stock market is not for you. If the answer is no, then SO is no different.
We all would like all our trades to be winners, but we know this is not possible. We know some of the trades will be losers. Many traders think that if a trade has lost money, it was a bad trade. They try to identify what errors they made that lead to losses. Why? "Because I lost money! So surely I have made a mistake somewhere?”
Was it the right conclusion? Is any losing trade necessarily a bad trade?
The answer is no. No matter how well he executed his trade, there will be losing trades because we are playing a probability game. Trading is a business based on probability. And probability means that sometimes we get what we want, sometimes we don't. And that's the nature of this business. The sooner we accept this, the better we can operate it as a business.
To put things in perspective, our model portfolio was up 10% in the first half of 2025. We had few bad trades in July and those put us back few percentage points. While those returns are way lower than expected, they are not the end of the world. We will refine our strategies going forward and I encourage everyone to look at the big picture.
It is important to note that consistency in trading is important rather than changing everything when you get an adverse movement. Adaptation rather than revolution over time is the right way to go. Have our strategies lost their edge? This question has been asked many times over the years, basically every time we have a period of dull returns, and the answer each time has been "no, they have not". I believe this time is no different.
Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between - Michael Covel
Since inception we had 13 months that produced 20%+ returns, and over 30 months that produced 10-20% returns.
To win you've got to stay in the game.
Our strategies worked very well for us for over a decade, and we have full confidence that they will continue working in the future. Those who have the patience will be greatly rewarded, like in the last 13 years. Members who have been with us from the very beginning know it very well.