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Some strategies definitely have issues due to crazy moves, but I wouldn't say that about SO. We had one bad month in January, I provided a full analysis here. It was simply a combination of few bad trades that came all in one month. The funny thing is that if the same loss came at the end of 2018, nobody wouldn't even notice because we would still have almost triple digit return in 2018. But since the loss came at the beginning of a calendar year, the year so far doesn't look good. Our long term members know that this is just a bump in a road. It can happen, and for a strategy with triple digit annual return in the last 7 years, it is not uncommon to have such a drawdown once in 3-4 years. Members who stick around are usually well rewarded.

In my opinion, it is simply a patience game. Often the worst conditions eventually morph into an excellent environment. Frankly, that is what I am anticipating in the Treasury market and I think we’re getting pretty close. I also believe it is likely the environment for the SO strategies will begin to improve as well. The miscommunication and about face of the Fed had far reaching consequences in ALL markets and in my opinion that is beginning to fade. Let’s see what the next six months bring.

Someone posted an interesting comment on stockgumshoe: Unfortunately this is a mentality that I see too often when it comes to new members. They don't follow our recommendation to start with paper trading, try to jump into new trades from day one on order to "earn back the cost of the subscription", get frustrated and cancel. Of course our poor performance in January 2019 didn't help (as the same member mentioned, this was our worst month in 3 years). Some people expect it to be an ATM machine, and never have a losing month. Just doesn't work this way. So they join based on 7 years track record, but cancel based on one bad month. Same mentality that causes people to sell all their stock holdings in 2008, and watch the stock market triple in value in the next 10 years. As I mentioned many times, getting good fills is part of the learning process. Over time when members gain more experience, they learn how to get better fills. Many members started as complete novices and now they take the trades even before I do and get better results in some cases. But those things take time. Looking at discussion topics, we can see that 80%+ of the trades can be entered at prices lower than the official price. I mention those cases on a daily basis. If any of you wants to reply to this stockgumshoe comment, you are welcome to do it.

These first three months have been a bit rough - and January started us off with a down month. Also, as the market is different today than most years, we're all having to learn to adapt, evolve and adjust. We owe it to ourselves to try things that have worked, review results, adjust methods, try new things, etc.. It takes time to evolve into the "new normal" . . . and that takes work and closed-loop introspection. I look at my "unrealized gains" related to some of my options plays - and I'm not overjoyed with what I see (larger negative numbers in some areas than I'd like) - but I also know that I'm learning every day and we will get there - whether it is this month, the next, or the one after . . . so I'm very positive about my SO future.

It too often appears that long term memory ties itself to losses and short term memory aligns with gains. You cannot please everyone no matter how hard you try. Keep up the good work here.

Yep. Most people don't. And I can guarantee you that once the Treasury market stabilizes, you will start seeing excellent returns from the CA strategy as well.