Leaderboard

Why not? Because they occur - furthermore the past is no guarantee for the future. My approach to the heatmaps is just to narrow the probabilities slightly in our favour and combine this with the known rise of IV to open a position where we have market exposure and more than a regular chance of getting directional bias in our favour. Simultaneously the downside is protected by the rise in IV. When looking at candidates the most important thing is whether the return is regularly positive - is there is a 1 in 2 chance of 400% + and otherwise 10% - that is not good. If there is a 1 in 2 chance of 50% or -25% that is bad. If the chance is 3 to 1 in favour of the positive then again it gets interesting.