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Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/15/18 in Posts

  1. I trade every trade I've come across on the CML blog or posted on this thread by others that looks like a valid result to me, which means for each potential trade, I look at the details of the backtest and decide whether some anomaly is causing the overall results or it looks like a legit trend. Of the 174 trades, I've made 39 post-earnings Short PS, 90 pre-earnings calls, 22 straddles (~15 pre- / ~3 post-earnings / ~4 non-earnings), 15 post-earnings Iron Condors (some short / some long - don't have that breakdown), 6 TTM Squeeze, and 2 that I classified as Other. As far as deltas, entry/exit criteria, etc, I trade whatever the backtests show. In many cases (particularly pre-earnings calls), the backtests will show results for multiple deltas. In that case, I trade 40-delta unless the 50 delta results look better. Most trades have their own stop losses and/or limit gains (typically, but not always 40-50%) and I follow that. I try to follow the CML methodology of waiting to determine stop losses/limit gains until the end of the trading day, but find it hard to stick with that on large gains (particularly when they're approaching 100% gains), so I've closed a lot of trades early. I don't track how many are better holding vs closing earlier, but it seems like holding until end of day would have been better in most cases. I open trades in the last hour unless I don't have time later or I see a dip in price that presents a good entry point (for example, if I'm watching a 50 delta call early in the day and the stock price drops and now I can get it for 20% cheaper. Well, I know I'm going to open it in a couple hours anyway, so I'll usually open a little early). Lastly, I limit to 10 ongoing trades at once and if a trade loses twice in a row, I assume the trend is dead and stop trading it.
    2 points
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