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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/26/17 in Posts

  1. I actually haven't seen a debate and certainly have no joy in arguing. I like what you wrote and I have nothing else to really add, unless someone has a question.
    1 point
  2. Let me interject here in an attempt to diffuse this debate between members arguing what is "fact". Reviewing the posts and video, it is clear everyone is essentially in agreement! The bottom line, which nobody is disputing is that pre-earnings straddles can gain from both a rise in IV (when it is enough to outpace theta) even with no stock movement or a gain from movement in the underlying while the IV helps to mitigate or completely eliminate the theta cost or a combination of both. Larger gains will come from large movement in the underlying although solid gains can and do still occur with a sharp rise in IV with no movement in the underlying. Everyone involved in this debate agrees with these points, so why is it being continually dragged on?
    1 point
  3. I detailed this reality in a video, if you like, for Google, but it applies to all: You can feel free to use this as your response whenever you like. You are right. It's a fact, and it is not disputable.
    1 point
  4. Thank you. After I wrote my post I just starting thinking the same thing. I was a market maker on the floor(s) of Nymex, Comex, Amex, for a long time, and it was always the one big question that everyone who "gamma trades" was always trying to figure out a solid plan for. "When do you re-hedge?" How much movement, or change in delta, do you need, in order to do something to bring you back to "delta -neutral". It is a question that goes back forever. Aside from earnings related trades, you also can seek out underlyings whose real Historical Volatility, is much, much higher than the IV is suggesting. The stock is moving around a LOT more each day than is priced into the options. The only way I can think of for finding those candidates is by comparing HV to IV. If HV is much higher than IV, then you have a candidate. Even without an, earnings related, rise in IV to offset the daily theta, if you can get enough movement, and actively re-hedge your deltas, then you can make your profits from the re-hedging part of the trade. Even if the original "base" position, loses money in the end. It is a very profitable way to trade. But, it still comes down to finding the best plan for when to re-hedge.
    1 point
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