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In many, or almost all, of our discussions regarding "Earnings" trades, especially, using the available P/L graphs to see where our zone of profitability will be when holding through earnings,...it is usually said to disregard the P/L graphs during these unique periods because they just do not accurately account for the huge changes , and the huge "difference" in changes, of IV, pre and post earnings. This statement has shown itself to be pretty much correct. The over-inflated, front expiration, will almost always collapse by a MUCH greater amount, than the decline of IV as you go further out in time. This leaves us with "faulty" expectations of what our outcomes will be when holding through earnings. In the period before earnings,when the front (short) IV is like 85, and the further back (long) IV might be 40, you will see a P/L graph that shows an enormous range of profitability, sometimes keeping the trade profitable with a 10%+ move in either direction. Then what happens is, right after earnings, when all IV's have declined to where they are going to wind up, you then learn that the trade REALLY was NOT going to be profitable across the wide range that you were led to believe by the P/L graph. My question is...with SO MUCH sophisticated options analysis software available, does anyone know of a REALLY good program that can allow for the adjustments (manually) of individual expirations IV's so that one can get a more accurate P/L , that reflects what really will happen post earnings. I think that we are all smart enough to be able to know the degree of IV changes that will occur, POST earnings, for each expiration to be able to make the correct assumptions, if we had the ability to. But, the usual candidates (TOS, IB, ONE Option etc.) does not allow for this type of manual , IV, inputs.

The general feeling that I am hearing is that this is such a terrible time for selling premium because the "market" is in an eternal upward climb, and VIX is at historic lows. While this IS true for "equity-related " markets....nothing could be further from the truth. By ONLY trading equity, equity index, and equity related ETF options, you are shutting down a very big world of opportunity to sell very expensive options with very small delta's. Let's face it. This is not "equities" finest hour. But, if you would open the door to commodities, you will find some of the greatest opportunities available. As an, almost entirely, uncorrelated class of assets, they are not subject to the world of "Vix" as the guide as to where options prices are. The opportunities are unlimited and, it seems to me, that you are limiting your potential and, avoiding a world of enormous opportunities. Because they are so uncorrelated, IV can be near all time lows, in Coffee, for example, while being at all time highs, in Gold, or Crude oil. A crude oil option with a delta of .10 and 60 days to expiration will be $500, in many cases. And between 60 days and 30 DTE will lose 50% of it's value. That is just 1 example. It would , no doubt, improve your profitability, to move outside of a world, where everything is highly correlated , and premiums are at their lowest levels in history, and open a totally different door, using the same knowledge, and applying the same strategies, where some of the best trades are plentiful. Equity markets will have "their day" , once again, at some point in the future. But it is definately not now. And a Vix of 9 proves it. The lower equities premiums go, and the vix REALLY could go to 6, the more risk you have to take on as a premium seller and, the more you have to force yourself into areas that you normally would never go to.