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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/30/2014 in Articles

  1. 1 point
    Lets examine those statements and see how you should put them in context and consider other parameters as well. We will use vertical spread strategy as an example. Lets take a look at the following trade: Sell to open RUT August 1175 call Buy to open RUT August 1185 call This is the risk profile of the trade: As we can see, we are risking $822 to make $177. This is pretty bad risk reward. However, the picture looks a lot better when we look at the probability of success: it is 78%. We need the underlying to stay below 1175 by August expiration, and there is 78% chance that it will happen. In this trade, bad risk/reward = high probability of success. Lets take a look at another trade: Sell to open RUT August 1100 call Buy to open RUT August 1110 call This is the risk profile of the trade: As we can see, we are risking only $185 to make $815. That's terrific risk/reward (more than 1:4). The only problem is that RUT will have to go below 1110, and there is only 20.7% probability that this will happen. (In fact, to realize the full profit, RUT has to go below 1100 and stay there by expiration). In this trade, excellent risk/reward = low probability of success. The following table illustrates the relation between probability of success and risk-reward: Of course, this is not an exact science, but it helps us to see the approximate relation and trade-off between the risk-reward and the probability of success. So next time someone will ask you: "Would you risk $9 to make $1?" - consider the context. Yes, it is a terrible risk/reward, but considering high probability of success, this is not such a bad trade. It will likely be a winner most of the time - the big question is what you do in those cases it goes against you? At the same time, the answer to the question "Would you risk $1 to make $9?" is also not so obvious. It is an excellent risk/reward, but the probability to actually realize this reward is very low. In trading, there is always a trade-off. You will have to choose between a good risk-reward and a high probability of success. You cannot have both. Watch the video: If you want to learn more about options strategies: Start Your Free Trial
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