the 56% was: open interest declined from 18,777 lots to 8,200 lots. So 10,577 lots or 56% of the original open interest of 18,777 lots have been exercised. Seems we agree on the possible return on this then.
Maybe not about the risk. I wouldn't call a 25% drop in AAPL over 2 months VERY unlikely - has happened more than once in the stock before. Certainly no risk that I would take for a 0.5% reward. So I would definitely look to unwind the position as soon as possible after the dividend.