Kim 7,512 Report post Posted January 15, 2013 Not sure how many of you have seen this: http://www.econmatters.com/2013/01/apple-price-target-50-stock-by-2016.html His price target of $50 looks a bit aggressive, but he makes a lot of valid points. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Corto Report post Posted January 15, 2013 I worked at Palm in the late 90s/early 2000s. Exact same scenario. Top of the world for a while with the best selling Palm IIIs, Palm V and followon PDAs. Then totally blew it when it came to competition and keeping up with what the market wanted when moving to phones. There is no reason other than poor management decisions that kept Palm from having an iPhone and an app store way before Apple did. We had the engineering, just the wrong vision. Apple without Jobs I think is the same. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ammarmalhas 5 Report post Posted January 15, 2013 I remember reading similar "analysis' on BAC, on C and on FB! Look where they are now! After the infamous 2008-2009 crash and my analysts' and financial advisers' drastic failure in realizing what the heck was going on and finding out that people's sentiments stand much more influential than technicals and fundamentals, one is left a little confused at how valuable these 'analytical" articles are! For someone so sure of AAPL going down (crashing down) to $50, I believe he should be shorting it BIG time and becoming a BILLIONAIRE instead of writing about it and scaring people off! The important point he missed is the China market and the 1.3 billion people who want to own an iPhone and the "status" of owning one! AAPL is moving in there at steady pace, if i am not mistaken! No one should under-estimate that market, it is equal to the rest of the world put together! I personally own an iPhone 4S and a Galaxy SII, the iPhone is ten folds more superior in its make, its touch, its handling and ease of use. I still want tens of modifications to it but it is by far a more superior and much better built phone (smart or dumb). Just my thoughts, whatever they may be worth! :-) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Marco 221 Report post Posted January 15, 2013 I think he's making the point that technology moves incredibly fast and there are many examples of tech companies that once 'ruled the world' for a while (Palm, Nokia, Sony ...) and are now struggling big time and others that just found them self in a commoditised market with shrinking margins (Intel, MSFT) and stagnant or falling share prices. I think the odds that either could happen to Apple are high, the difficult thing is to see when and how quickly this will happen. I think a lot of people LOVE Apple so much as a consumer (I'm one of them) and as investor that they are too emotionally involved to see the chance of this actually happening. I think at least if it comes to investing you should put these emotions to one side and look at the facts and decide accordingly. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
K. Miller 3 Report post Posted January 15, 2013 The funny part is Apple has been through this cycle already. Amazing what one visionary can do for a company. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Marco 221 Report post Posted January 15, 2013 The funny part is Apple has been through this cycle already. Amazing what one visionary can do for a company. absolutely, people seem to forget that Apple already was close to bankruptcy and I think the rise they had since Steve jobs re joined the company was truely amazing. The question is whether they can keep on re-inventing themselves (or rather new revolutionary products) It's not just a matter of money. I think Nokia outspend Apple by a factor of 4 or so in terms of Reseach and Development costs and yet it took them YEARS to come up with a phone that is somewhat competitive now. Look at what happened to companies like RIMM, Motorola, Nokia or Kodak - if you cant keep up with the vast changes you are going to disappear. I'm not saying Apple will but the risk is certainly higher than many Apple fans can imagine right now. I think the market has somewhat woken up to that risk now hence we're at 500$. Very hard though to quantify and evaluate that risk - so I personally have no clue whether 500$ is super cheap or expensive as the article claims. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
temper 1 Report post Posted January 15, 2013 quite provoking series from SAhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1007921-android-is-dead-part-1-whya bit of googling about developers experiences with android shows aaple might be better ecosystem than android. Quite a surprise to me tbh.but maybe somebody better tech oriented would tell. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
K. Miller 3 Report post Posted January 16, 2013 Numbers will tell for developers, its as simple as that. I read the article, but the negative comments at the end seemed equally as well informed. I think the only safe bet on apple is that it will move, stay non-directional! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricSimpson1 5 Report post Posted January 17, 2013 I have no idea where AAPL stock will end up but I really think it will be a lot tougher for them without Jobs. He may have a been a manipulative psychopath, but he had the extremely rare ability to see what most people wanted before they even knew it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 7,512 Report post Posted January 21, 2013 Many of you probably have seen this article - http://seekingalpha.com/article/1109141-apple-get-ready-for-january-18. To confirm his theory, the stock was pinned at exactly $500 at January expiration. Pretty amazing. I started to see warning signs for AAPL stocks when people started to write on Seeking Alpha comments section "I put my whole portfolio into this stock, it will make it a millionaire". When you have this type of sentiment ("this stock cannot go down"), you know something is terribly wrong. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
K. Miller 3 Report post Posted January 22, 2013 (edited) When everyone who wants to own the stock does, there is only one direction to move..... Edited January 22, 2013 by K. Miller Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ammarmalhas 5 Report post Posted January 22, 2013 (edited) I have been on a business trip to China (Shanghai and surroundings) and for the past four days I have only seen iPhones 4/4s/5. I have seen crowds cramming in Apple stores all over. Sure some people still carry an old Nokia but NO ONE I saw carries a Samsung Galaxy SII or III (except for my son and I)! Hmmm CHINA vs. Me and my son? I'll take Apple at such odds ANY DAY. Seems every Chinese carries an iPhone or must have one, and that is what I call proper MARKETING. C you all when AAPL hits a $1000 :-) Edited January 22, 2013 by ammarmalhas Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kim 7,512 Report post Posted January 22, 2013 How much does iPhone cost in China and how many people can afford it? My personal opinion is that AAPL will NEVER see $1,000 price. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ammarmalhas 5 Report post Posted January 22, 2013 The iPhone 5 is around $700. How many can afford one? I really cannot tell EXCEPT the number of iPhones that are in use is ridiculous! It really looks like every Chinese (of course in Shanghai and Beijing and big cities) has an iPhone. Mind you the SS G III is almost $600 and an SII is $450 (same as an iPhone 4/4s) and the Nokia 920 is $800, so the question is also valid on how many people in China can afford an SIII or a Nokia 920 or ...etc! I'll be really happy if AAPL hits $800 and joyous if it hits $900. At $1000, well ... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Corto Report post Posted January 22, 2013 And what will you be like as the product gets more and more competition and more commoditized and margins continue shrinking and AAPL is at $150 or less? Please don't think it can't happen, at least at some point along the way to your $1000. And if it reaches $1000, will you sell? Or reset your target and then still setup the potential to be wiped out later on? I assume you hold AAPL? Mind saying what you average price is, and what your thoughts have been during the drop from $700 to $500 (28%)? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ammarmalhas 5 Report post Posted January 22, 2013 Well, I will not be happy if it does drop to $400 let alone $150. I hold $400 leaps Jan 2015. By the same arguments is this not true for Nokia, Samsung, and the rest? There is still something "nicer" about an iPhone than any other I have tried, and I can say I have tried and owned all the top ones, I am not boasting! Why do you all love to hate Apple? Why do you all chose to be so pessimistic? Better yet, why don't you short the stock or buy some puts and when Apple hits $150, you can really make a bundle. I am not advocating buying or selling the stock and I do not much care if anyone does or doesn't, i am responding to an article wrote by a "genius" who obviously rides the waves and follows the trend, and the trend now is to hate Apple! By all means, HATE it as much as you LIKE. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Corto Report post Posted January 22, 2013 Well, at least you have 2 years on the leaps, but I wish you luck my friend! To add a fixed time horizon to holding Apple by doing it with options adds yet another level of risk! I do not have an iPhone, but I do have an iPad and I like it a lot. It is not about liking or hating it for me. It is about two things. 1) I may be naive on this, but as with desktop computers, I believe phones have at least temporarily hit a level of technology that people will not feel the need to have to upgrade so often. My desktop is >6 years old and I still do 3D CAD work on it with no issue. 2) I believe the market worldwide for phones is becoming saturated. Mike Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ammarmalhas 5 Report post Posted January 22, 2013 I fully agree with you. But Apple is about more than iPhones. As you noted, the iPads are great and have no real competition so far. The MACs are just superb machines and who knows what next they will cook up! They have managed to make owning an Apple product a "status" thing, and in this naive and lost world of ours, millions are seeking recognition in owning gadgets they most probably never really need! Good luck to us all and may Apple hit $1000 and we all smile. Bless you all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Marco 221 Report post Posted January 22, 2013 (edited) I fully agree with you. But Apple is about more than iPhones. As you noted, the iPads are great and have no real competition so far. The MACs are just superb machines and who knows what next they will cook up! They have managed to make owning an Apple product a "status" thing, and in this naive and lost world of ours, millions are seeking recognition in owning gadgets they most probably never really need! Good luck to us all and may Apple hit $1000 and we all smile. Bless you all. I have a good handful of Apple products (Macbook, Iphone, Ipdad, a couple of Ipods lying around ...) and I love them. But I also once was the proud owner of a Sony walkman, a nokia phone, a sonyericsson phone ..... I remember when everyone had a motorola Razor or that phone from the matrix. Do you know anyone with a motorola phone now? There are plenty of consumers that love Apple products and I'm sure they can do a lot to keep that appeal - but as the examples above show there is no guarantee that they can and also even if people keep buying their gadgets that doesn't mean their margins will come down if competition gets tougher and they aren't are far ahead of the competition as they used to be.... I think market has woken up to that and unless Apple pulls the next big thing out of the hat that 1000$ price tag is faaaar away. Edited January 22, 2013 by Marco Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ammarmalhas 5 Report post Posted January 22, 2013 I have to agree, somewhat, with the fact that great names have faded and will continue to do so, EVOLUTION and SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST. Nokia, Motorola, Siemens, Walkman, Blackberry, i-Mate, PC Phone (?) ..etc, all faded because another was more innovative and as far as I can see, and I could be short sited, Apple is by far much more innovative than the rest combined! Another important point to think of, is in the good old days, pre-iPod age, of a walkman most of the world was busy looking for a radio to listen to a piece of music or some news. The market has changed drastically and the US is no longer the dominant user. Please keep in mind there are 1300 million Chinese, 1300 million Indians and another billion or so in South East Asia and they seem to be loving Apple so far! If %10 of these people end up owning an Apple gadget, that would be like each and every man, woman and child in the US owning an Apple gadget, or don't they already? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ammarmalhas 5 Report post Posted January 22, 2013 I think I wasted enough of you guys' time. Good night from Shanghai (1:30am). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
