AI, ChatGPT Et al - BS like Y2K or Reality

[Ringandpinion 1,618]

I've been out of action a week or so and was trying to catch up.  I was reading, or scanning over mostly, some stock newsletters (relatively serious ones) and you'd think that AI is going to be able to do everything a human can in the next 6 months.  I wonder what odds the bookies of the world are giving it.  Will Skynet take over and WWIII will actually be fought by man against his war machines?  When something is hyped this much, I begin to remember the Y2K bug, beanie babies, limited edition art prints, etc. etc all the way back to tulip bulbs (okay, I'm too young for the tulip craze).  The deeper the BS, the shallower the reality is usually a good way to look at things.  Just wondering what others thought.

[TrustyJules 2,911]

If its any consolation:

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ais-victories-in-go-inspire-better-human-game-playing/

 

When I went to school they wanted to ban calculators because it was going to make people lazy and machines take over the world.

When my children were going to school they wanted to ban computers because it was going to make people lazy and machines take over the world

Now they are proposing to ban AI because it was going to make people lazy and machines take over the world.

 

When do we ever learn?

 

[Ringandpinion 1,618]

3 hours ago, TrustyJules said:

When do we ever learn?

That's kind of my point, the hype and manipulation around any specific data bit is like an avalanche, the more it goes down the mountain, the more snow/people add to the size.  Y2K was a perfect example for those that barely survived the impending apocalypse.  Perfectly level headed computer programmers, hardware engineers were freaking out.  I had one guy tell me that our cars were just going to stop in the middle of the street because the computers were going to crash, when I asked him why the car would care what year it was, since it was not even networked to any other computers, he just said you watch and see.  In the words of Tommy Lee Jones in the first MiB  "what a gullible breed".

[Kim 7,420]

25 years ago, chess computer Deep Blue won a match against Chess World Champion Garry Kasparov. Many were saying this is the end of chess game as we know it. 

25 years later, chess game is alive and beating, including new generations of World Champions, competitions, etc.

[Ringandpinion 1,618]

3 minutes ago, Kim said:

25 years ago, chess computer Deep Blue won a match against Chess World Champion Garry Kasparov. Many were saying this is the end of chess game as we know it. 

Yeah, I was reading about that somewhere today, I remember it happening but my focus at that time was not on anything remotely to do with chess or Deep Blue.  Better machines just make individuals more productive.  But I've seen in manufacturing that the machine tool operators don't know anything about machining anymore, just about how to load the parts to be machined and bring up the program pattern to do the work.  I read somewhere else that some new Saturn 5 rockets would be valuable but the project would have to start from scratch because there was no one to do the final machining and parts fitting by hand.  I don't really think machines will take over, the press has already taken over everybody's mind.  But we do lose a lot.  @TrustyJules There really are a lot of kids that can't add and subtract because they have a calculator to do it for them, and a crappy public school system that has other things they want to teach than the 3 R's.  I just wonder how many people are really worried about it, I won't still be around when the Hunter Killer Terminators come for us, I think.

[TrustyJules 2,911]

2 hours ago, Ringandpinion said:

can't add and subtract because they have a calculator to do it for them,

True but how many of us would be able to build a combustion engine compared to how many of us can drive a car?

[Ringandpinion 1,618]

8 minutes ago, TrustyJules said:

True but how many of us would be able to build a combustion engine compared to how many of us can drive a car?

I'm not sure that is apples to apples.  In the 20th century, I would consider the ability to do basic math an absolutely minimum skill level.  Building an engine is a little more specialized.

[TrustyJules 2,911]

5 minutes ago, Ringandpinion said:

I'm not sure that is apples to apples.  In the 20th century, I would consider the ability to do basic math an absolutely minimum skill level.  Building an engine is a little more specialized.

You are right it is not and algebra as well as calculus are essential in many ways on the other hand if you are able to use the machines at your disposal and apply the maths from then (e.g. Greeks in options trading) knowing exactly how its done is less essential. I couldnt calculate a greek to save my life but I do know how to interpret Delta and gamma (the latter maybe not as much as I would like to!)

[Ringandpinion 1,618]

18 hours ago, TrustyJules said:

algebra as well as calculus are essential in many ways

You are hitting too close to home there LoL, algebra and geometry are as far as I ever got and that was mainly for use in formulas for pressures, friction and load, the kind of things one would use to set up a Ring and pinion.