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Kim

Welcome to SteadyVol

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SteadyVol is designed to be an easy to follow monthly trade that targets 50%-60% in annual compounded returns, while being fully hedged against any catastrophic loss.  The model portfolio will be based upon $10,000 and will usually be approximately 80% invested.  Members can easily scale this investment amount, as there are absolutely no liquidity concerns on VIX near term monthly options. 

When creating this trade, we wanted to derive a trade based upon VIX futures that was not dependent upon contango for its gains.  While contango is still helpful by increasing the rate at which gains accrue, all of the profit can be derived through positive Theta.  In addition, we wanted to create a trade that was extremely Vega positive to take advantage of increased IV during a VIX spike, but not give up any profit potential during an IV decline/vol crush.  Finally, we wanted to create a trade with a very favorable win/loss rate and a max drawdown on account of less than 20%.  We believe we have accomplished this using ITM debit and credit spreads on front and back month VIX futures hedged by a ratio of long calls.  

The trading strategy is technically straight forward utilizing a deep ITM debit spread on the VIX, hedged by a lower ratio of credit spreads and long calls to profit from positive Theta and negative Delta while also providing very strong hedging against a VIX spike. However, trade management is of the utmost importance during volatile periods.  Importantly, option models are very often not accurate as they follow the spot vix while the options we trade follow the future of the option expiration month.  Here is an excellent resource to follow the VIX futures curve that the options we trade are derived from: 

http://vixcentral.com/
 

Here is a response I (SBatch) gave to a subscriber recently further explaining the details of the trade:


An analogy may be best used here.  Chess, while an extremely complicated and sophisticated game, has a very basic rulebook.  However, once the game begins, it is the strategy of how to use the rules that make the best chess players.  The way they become the best chess players is not by reading the rulebook, but while playing more and more chess.  This strategy is similar in the more you follow it, the more clear it will become to you.  Trading strategies must be able to evolve in order to be used in all market environments. 

We are following basic rules as in chess, but proactively making the best trades based upon market dynamics.  All of these trades are made around the initial rules, but are made using best judgement at that time.  For example, in more volatile days, I may choose to close/open half a position instead of a full.  I held the call from the previous trade to reduce our hedge cost.  All of the details are explained at the time the trades are made and usually identified in advance.  We are trying to be the best chess players with a small set of defined rules playing against an exceptional player in Mr. Market.  The more experience everyone has with the strategy, the more they will understand it.  I resist posting option graphs for this trade because, as has been made very clear, they are not useful unless it is at expiration, which is in turn accurate.  For those not understanding why a trade has been made, should first ask any questions, but also may find value in modeling the trade, but only looking at the expiration values.  For example, below is our trade using the free calculator https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/

 

The trade rationale is always very detailed and given in advance.  Trade timing is not typically important.  However, these details and others are best understood during a trade as they evolve.  The end goal is always the same - earn as much as possible in positive Theta/negative Delta in the lowest risk combination of debit and credit spreads that are also hedged against catastrophic loss in a Black Swan event.  I have been trading this strategy since June of 2022 and the largest drawdown on account has been less than 20%, and the trade has averaged 6% per month over that time.  The VIX has been extremely volatile during that period:

 

image.thumb.png.8f63f85825730574ed52a82a44db161e.png

 

When trading the VIX it is important to consider exactly what the VIX represents.  For those that do not know, the spot VIX indicates what traders believe the maximum move the market will make in the next 12 months will be.  This is extremely useful information.  Using 2022 as an example, we know we are down about 20% from the peak at the beginning of the year.  When the VIX spikes above 30% currently, traders are pricing in a peak to trough drop of 50%. 

This is a very large decrease when considered against the average 38% decline of a bear market.  Furthermore, if the VIX persists above 30, it is extremely likely that the market is experiencing further selling, driving the peak to trough estimate even higher.  For example, if we drop 30% from the peak and we have a VIX at 35, a peak to trough decline of 65% is now being priced in, and this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for the VIX to drop precipitously.  Unless we are in a 2008 style environment,  where a total market wipeout was a possibility, the VIX will always drop once the peak to trough estimate becomes too much.  Let's look at the spot VIX for the past 12 months again:

 

image.thumb.png.e30eab7de9189a42120471b905113c3c.png

 

As can be seen the VIX spends very little time above 30.  However, we must still be prepared for the unexpected as the last 5 years have taught us:

 

image.thumb.png.8a756c7ca7cc9b2876037021ba3c9959.png

 

Even here, the VIX spends very little time above 30, but an outsized move could destroy a trade that is unhedged.  Therefore, we can count on the VIX spending the majority of its time below 30, but must always have protection in place to keep the max drawdown under the 20% target in the event of an ill-timed moderate to extreme vol spike. 
 

The SteadyVol Overview thread possesses a wealth of information on previous trades allowing new subscribers to get up to speed very quickly.


It is recommended that this strategy be traded with Firstrade.  Firstrade has zero commissions and use a true pass-thru of Index option exchange fees.  Annual commissions are estimated to only be 3%-4% of total account capital per year.  Also, there is no charge for their online trading software, which is quite efficient and more than ample for this trade. It's worth to mention that Tradier also has very low commissions for VIX options, and even when trading with more "traditional" brokers, commissions would still account for less than 1% per month.


We encourage all members to check out Firstrade or or at least a broker with competitive commissions. In the current competitive environment, there is no reason to pay more than $0.50/contract.

February 2024 offer from Tradier:

Steady Options customers receive a special Index Option pricing of only $.10 per contract when you sign up for the Tradier Pro plan.**

Customers must be subscribed to Steady Options in order to take part in this promotion. Limited to one account per household. 

*Single Listed Index Options are subject to a $0.10/contract commission in addition to any other charges for exchange, OCC, and regulatory fees. See Fee Schedule for more details. Tradier Brokerage Inc. charges for exchange, OCC, and regulatory fees. Other fees and applicable minimums may apply see Fee Schedule for more details.

The bottom line is that Single Listed Index Options (VIX etc) will have a special pricing of around 0.50-0.55 per contract all in.



Service highlights:

  • Model portfolio: $10,000
  • Underlying: VIX options
  • Average holding period: 3-4 weeks
  • Tailored for medium term traders
  • 2-3 trades per month, plus adjustments
  • Less than ~1%/month commission impact (unless trading with Firstrade or Tradier)
  • Fully scalable

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Just now, vasis said:

Hi,

How this strategy can be theta positive if you buy debit spread (theta negative) and hedging by uncovered calls (also theta negative)? Or your call hedge is proportional spread?

Debit spreads can be Theta positive.

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Hi Is this a positive Vega trade? Also, do you track or trade this using Option Net Explorer? I noticed that that deltas wuth IB do not match with the Deltas in ONE. Not sure if Im missing something. I know ONE has had some issues with greeks

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13 minutes ago, JATE said:

Hi Is this a positive Vega trade? Also, do you track or trade this using Option Net Explorer? I noticed that that deltas wuth IB do not match with the Deltas in ONE. Not sure if Im missing something. I know ONE has had some issues with greeks

This becomes a positive Vega trade during a vol spike, however, option trading software is not useful for this trade unless at expiration.  The reason for this is our trade follows the options on the VIX future whereas all option modeling software uses the spot VIX.

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Hi!!,

First of all congratulations for the contents.
I have some questions about the set up:


1. Is it any reason to choose the width of the Bear Put of 4 points?

2. Where do you situate the Long Call, is it 25 deltas?

3. Instead of using a Bear Put ITM could we use a Bear Cal OTM?.

Thank you,

 

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3 hours ago, MrCampana said:

Hi!!,

First of all congratulations for the contents.
I have some questions about the set up:


1. Is it any reason to choose the width of the Bear Put of 4 points?

2. Where do you situate the Long Call, is it 25 deltas?

3. Instead of using a Bear Put ITM could we use a Bear Cal OTM?.

Thank you,

 

 

1. Is it any reason to choose the width of the Bear Put of 4 points?

It works well within the max margin of $10,000 on the model portfolio.

 

2. Where do you situate the Long Call, is it 25 deltas?

It is roughly in that area but while also keeping the price under $1.00 per contract if possible.

 

3. Instead of using a Bear Put ITM could we use a Bear Cal OTM?

You can, but we have found in practice that the fills on the DPS are superior compared with the corresponding call spread.

 

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Scott:

Regarding the trade alerts pertaining to the SteadyVol service, how critical is it to place them once they are posted? Since limit orders are used, will the timing of the trades be compromised or possibly missed if too much time passes between the posting and the actual trade execution?

I mention this in cases of where one may be unable to place a trade in a timely manner. In such instances, would it be advisable to skip the trade?

 

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This trading system is generally very forgiving of timing. If vol isn’t moving much, the pricing of the position (especially if it is brand new) is not likely to move much either. Even if vol does move, you can watch it for when it comes back into the area where the trade was placed and you can probably get in for a similar price.

 

This contrasts with Steady Options where a quick trigger finger or proactive standing orders are often needed to get into advantageous trades. Those are not necessary here. Skipping a trade is really only called for when there is not enough profit potential left in the trade when you are trying to get in. 

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26 minutes ago, Peeyotch said:

This trading system is generally very forgiving of timing. If vol isn’t moving much, the pricing of the position (especially if it is brand new) is not likely to move much either. Even if vol does move, you can watch it for when it comes back into the area where the trade was placed and you can probably get in for a similar price.

 

This contrasts with Steady Options where a quick trigger finger or proactive standing orders are often needed to get into advantageous trades. Those are not necessary here. Skipping a trade is really only called for when there is not enough profit potential left in the trade when you are trying to get in. 

@DVK426 In addition, we always have a trade on. Therefore, let’s say for example you missed the official exit at 3.85 and could only get 3.82. However, the official may have paid 3.60 to open the new trade and for example you’re able to get in for 3.57. This dynamic occurs as the front and back month move pretty closely with each other, so it essentially cancels itself out making fast timing not important.

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For those not trading with Firstrade, there is a way to reduce commissions. The credit put spread can be replaced with additional calls to provide similar protection, while substantially reducing commissions. In this case, one would be typically trading a little over 100 contracts per month total. Considering our 4%-5% target monthly gain, the net profit would still be quite compelling.

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Hi @SBatchI wonder, if the common trade can be simplified by only using the (25) debit spread & the (3) long calls. Without the lower credit spread. I think this would be the more initial trade like @Yowster ... As I use IB I would also like to have as few as possible positions / legs on and as few as possible commissions. So, is the easier trade ok? And is this the trade plan for the fund?

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6 minutes ago, Tobias said:

Hi @SBatchI wonder, if the common trade can be simplified by only using the (25) debit spread & the (3) long calls. Without the lower credit spread. I think this would be the more initial trade like @Yowster ... As I use IB I would also like to have as few as possible positions / legs on and as few as possible commissions. So, is the easier trade ok? And is this the trade plan for the fund?

It could be done that way, but the risk is slightly higher as the CPS is an additional hedge.

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Good morning.  I am new to SteadyVol.  Can you please shed more light or an example of how the monthly returns for this service are calculated?  I am placing my trades using the same size as shown in your trades (my account value is $100,000) and am also pretty closely matching your actual fills in terms of price.  But am not seeing the returns you show in the Performance section of the website.  For example, does the 2.3% return for October represent mark-to-market gains or gains on closed trades, etc?  Any clarity on this topic is greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

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5 minutes ago, Marshall said:

Good morning.  I am new to SteadyVol.  Can you please shed more light or an example of how the monthly returns for this service are calculated?  I am placing my trades using the same size as shown in your trades (my account value is $100,000) and am also pretty closely matching your actual fills in terms of price.  But am not seeing the returns you show in the Performance section of the website.  For example, does the 2.3% return for October represent mark-to-market gains or gains on closed trades, etc?  Any clarity on this topic is greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

It is based on all trades closed in the specific month. For example for October:

image.png

If you summarize all 5 trades results, this is what you will get.

 

+79

+100

+124

+239

-308

Total: 234 or 2.34%

 

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14 minutes ago, optiontiger said:

Hello,

I am new to the service and trying to understand the full impact of the commissions.  I have $0.35 per contract pricing with my broker.

How many contracts were traded in October to produce the $234 gain?  

Thank you!

The service averages a total of 150 contracts per month on a $10,000 model portfolio. This is about a 6% drag on the year, resulting in a net gain over 40% for the first 12 months.

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5 hours ago, Tamas said:

Hello all,

How much commission do Interactive brokers charge for VIX options compare with Tradier? (IB 0.5 vs Tradier 0.35 maybe?)

Thanks

About $1.16 for IB vs $0.82 for Tradier

https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/topic/8584-steadyvol-strategy-overview/?do=findComment&comment=186214

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1 hour ago, greenspan76 said:

I only wanted to add, that I have similar figures. For the last 3 months, I can confirm $0.84/contract Round Turn (option open and close). For Tradier broker of course.

Edited by Petr
error

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19 minutes ago, Petr said:

I only wanted to add, that I have similar figures. For the last 3 months, I can confirm $0.84/contract Round Turn (option open and close). For Tradier broker of course.

You mean $0.42 per open + $0.42 per close for $0.84 round-trip? Because using Tradier in 2023, I opened 318 total VIX option contracts + closed all 318 of those contracts and my total commissions/pass-thru fees was $525.10. That $525.10 / 636 total contracts = $0.825 per contract traded. And according to Tradier's website, they charge:

 

$0.35/contract Commission
$0.045/contract Clearing fees
$0.40/contract Single listed option index fee
---------------
$0.795/contract total cost (+ ORF regulatory fees which Tradier says are $0.02905/contract but they change periodically

Edited by greenspan76

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13 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

You mean $0.42 per open + $0.42 per close for $0.84 round-trip? Because using Tradier in 2023, I opened 318 total VIX option contracts + closed all 318 of those contracts and my total commissions/pass-thru fees was $525.10. That $525.10 / 636 total contracts = $0.825 per contract traded. Are you sure you're counting each contract of a spread?

I believe I am. Do you see any error in my calculation below? I consider single option as contract, not spread.

SteadyVOL DEC exp.png

Edited by Petr

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9 minutes ago, Petr said:

I believe I am. Do you see any error in my calculation below? I consider single option as contract, not spread....

I think you may be overlooking the total commission and fees. See below. (On a spread, only one of the legs will show an amount in the commissions column. These are just a few of the trades on that day, so not all connected, but you can see the 20/18 Bull PS had closing commissions of $3.50 + $0.30 + $4.46 = $8.26 total for 10 contracts. And those numbers are always the same within a penny, whether open or closing trade)

temp1.png

Edited by greenspan76

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13 minutes ago, Petr said:

Ok @greenspan76. I use daily confirmations for EXCEL calculation. This is closing 25 kt from PDS. See below. What type of report do you use?

Tradier conf.png

I am using the daily confirmation report - I just assumed it looked the same for everybody, but yours is just showing the $0.45 commission and what they call the "transaction fee" on my report. It doesn't include the $0.40 single listed option fee or the the $0.045 clearing fee, which are both included in the "Add'l Fees" column on the report I see. Weird. I don't know if there is some difference for non-Americans, but their website clearly states the commissions/fees for VIX that I showed a few posts above and that adds up to what I get charged

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As a European resident and thus a non-US citizen, I'm engaged in financial trading through a brokerage account that I opened with Tradier in September 2023. This journey to establish my account took approximately six weeks, primarily due to the meticulous compliance process at Firstrade. My first trading activity was executed on September 27th. In line with standard industry practices, I receive individual confirmations for each trade I conduct, which includes specific confirmations for each options trade. Additionally, to keep track of my financial activities and portfolio performance, Firstrade provides me with a comprehensive monthly statement.

16 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

I am using the daily confirmation report - I just assumed it looked the same for everybody, but yours is just showing the $0.45 commission and what they call the "transaction fee" on my report. It doesn't include the $0.40 single listed option fee or the the $0.045 clearing fee, which are both included in the "Add'l Fees" column on the report I see. Weird. I don't know if there is some difference for non-Americans, but their website clearly states the commissions/fees for VIX that I showed a few posts above and that adds up to what I get charged

 

Edited by Petr

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Have many people been following this strategy using IBKR for a while? Is it still decently profitable, or do IB commissions make it not worthwhile? I'd be interested to hear input from those stuck using Interactive Brokers. Thanks!

Edited by J10

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2 hours ago, J10 said:

Have many people been following this strategy using IBKR for a while? Is it still decently profitable, or do IB commissions make it not worthwhile? I'd be interested to hear input from those stuck using Interactive Brokers. Thanks!

Not worthwhile with IB sadly. I ran it from Nov 2022 to May 2023. The strategy itself works great, but IB commissions wiped out all of my profits, leaving me with a small net loss overall. It's absolutely critical to use a no/low fee brokerage with SteadyVol.

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Just now, FlingThorn said:

Not worthwhile with IB sadly. I ran it from Nov 2022 to May 2023. The strategy itself works great, but IB commissions wiped out all of my profits, leaving me with a small net loss overall. It's absolutely critical to use a no/low fee brokerage with SteadyVol.

To me, the educational part alone is worth at least 5 times the subscription cost. Getting insights from one of the biggest volatility experts is priceless.

And honestly, I'm not sure how you ended up with a small loss. The gross profit last year was 48% $4,800 on $10k portfolio, It trades around 200 contracts per month or $2,400 contracts per year. Even with 1.10 per contracts, that's around $2,600 in commissions. Still leaves you with more enough profit.

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21 minutes ago, FlingThorn said:

Not worthwhile with IB sadly. I ran it from Nov 2022 to May 2023. The strategy itself works great, but IB commissions wiped out all of my profits, leaving me with a small net loss overall. It's absolutely critical to use a no/low fee brokerage with SteadyVol.

Thank you, real-world accounts from past or present members using IB is exactly what I'm looking for! I'd love to hear from more IB users if there are any.

 

15 minutes ago, Kim said:

And honestly, I'm not sure how you ended up with a small loss. The gross profit last year was 48% $4,800 on $10k portfolio, It trades around 200 contracts per month or $2,400 contracts per year. Even with 1.10 per contracts, that's around $2,600 in commissions. Still leaves you with more enough profit.

200 contacts per month, is that including closing trades? Or is it 200 contracts and thus 400 transactions?

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I don't get the $1.10 IBKR calculation. My understanding is that IB charges $0.65 per contract, and the exchange and regulatory fees pass through for VIX is $0.24. Can someone trading VIX with Firstrade confirm that they just charge the $0.24 per contract? Right now TOS charges me $0.24 on behalf of the exchanges and regulators plus their own commission. The above calculation for IBKR would make sense trading SPX, as there the exchange plus regulatory fee adds up to $0.52 instead of $0.24, so that's $1.17 on IB per contract.

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32 minutes ago, Bullfighter said:

I don't get the $1.10 IBKR calculation. My understanding is that IB charges $0.65 per contract, and the exchange and regulatory fees pass through for VIX is $0.24. Can someone trading VIX with Firstrade confirm that they just charge the $0.24 per contract? Right now TOS charges me $0.24 on behalf of the exchanges and regulators plus their own commission. The above calculation for IBKR would make sense trading SPX, as there the exchange plus regulatory fee adds up to $0.52 instead of $0.24, so that's $1.17 on IB per contract.

Total costs for trading VIX options at IB:

 

$0.65 IB commission
$0.02685 regulatory fees
$0.02 OCC clearing fees
$0.45 CBOE fee for VIX options
--------
$1.14685 total cost per contract

+ $0.000008 * aggregate value SEC transaction fee
+ $0.00279 x qty sold FINRA trading activity fee

I split my SteadyVol portfolio between IB and Tradier from November 2022 through August 2023 and my average commission per contract on all IB trades was $1.16xx

 

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/pricing/commissions-options.php?re=amer
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/accounts/fees/CBOEoptfee.php

Edited by greenspan76

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5 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

I split my SteadyVol portfolio between IB and Tradier from November 2022 through August 2023 and my average commission per contract on all IB trades was $1.16xx

In your opinion was/is the SteadyVol service sufficiently profitable if you can only use IBKR?

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2 hours ago, J10 said:

In your opinion was/is the SteadyVol service sufficiently profitable if you can only use IBKR?

Hard to say because there were some entries I refused to budge $0.01 to $0.02 and ended up missing out on that portion of the trade. I suspect my results would have been better if I wasn't so stubborn, but during that period of Nov 2022 to Aug 2023 (including the Sep trade which I closed on Aug 30th), I made a total gain of $1.66 after commissions, with about half of the trades through IB and about half through Tradier. My total commissions were $2,419.34


*Edited numbers to correct for my spreadsheet not adding the last trade closed in August

Edited by greenspan76

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