Welcome to SteadyVol

[Kim 7,119]

SteadyVol is designed to be an easy to follow monthly trade that targets 60% in annual compounded returns, while being fully hedged against any catastrophic loss.  The model portfolio will be based upon $10,000 and will usually be approximately 80% invested.  Members can easily scale this investment amount, as there are absolutely no liquidity concerns on VIX near term monthly options. 

When creating this trade, we wanted to derive a trade based upon VIX futures that was not dependent upon contango for its gains.  While contango is still helpful by increasing the rate at which gains accrue, all of the profit can be derived through positive Theta.  In addition, we wanted to create a trade that was extremely Vega positive to take advantage of increased IV during a VIX spike, but not give up any profit potential during an IV decline/vol crush.  Finally, we wanted to create a trade with a very favorable win/loss rate and a max drawdown on account of less than 20%.  We believe we have accomplished this using ITM debit and credit spreads on front and back month VIX futures hedged by a ratio of uncovered calls.  

The trading strategy is technically straight forward utilizing a deep ITM debit spread on the VIX, hedged by a lower ratio of credit spreads and long calls to profit from positive Theta and negative Delta while also providing very strong hedging against a VIX spike. However, trade management is of the utmost importance during volatile periods.  Importantly, option models are very often not accurate as they follow the spot vix while the options we trade follow the future of the option expiration month.  Here is an excellent resource to follow the VIX futures curve that the options we trade are derived from: 

http://vixcentral.com/
 

Here is a response I (SBatch) gave to a subscriber recently further explaining the details of the trade:

An analogy may be best used here.  Chess, while an extremely complicated and sophisticated game, has a very basic rulebook.  However, once the game begins, it is the strategy of how to use the rules that make the best chess players.  The way they become the best chess players is not by reading the rulebook, but while playing more and more chess.  This strategy is similar in the more you follow it, the more clear it will become to you.  Trading strategies must be able to evolve in order to be used in all market environments. 

We are following basic rules as in chess, but proactively making the best trades based upon market dynamics.  All of these trades are made around the initial rules, but are made using best judgement at that time.  For example, in more volatile days, I may choose to close/open half a position instead of a full.  I held the call from the previous trade to reduce our hedge cost.  All of the details are explained at the time the trades are made and usually identified in advance.  We are trying to be the best chess players with a small set of defined rules playing against an exceptional player in Mr. Market.  The more experience everyone has with the strategy, the more they will understand it.  I resist posting option graphs for this trade because, as has been made very clear, they are not useful unless it is at expiration, which is in turn accurate.  For those not understanding why a trade has been made, should first ask any questions, but also may find value in modeling the trade, but only looking at the expiration values.  For example, below is our trade using the free calculator https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/. 
 

The trade rationale is always very detailed and given in advance.  Trade timing is not typically important.  However, these details and others are best understood during a trade as they evolve.  The end goal is always the same - earn as much as possible in positive Theta/negative Delta in the lowest risk combination of debit and credit spreads that are also hedged against catastrophic loss in a Black Swan event.  I have been trading this strategy since June of 2022 and the largest drawdown on account has been less than 20%, and the trade has averaged 6% per month over that time.  The VIX has been extremely volatile during that period:

 

 

When trading the VIX it is important to consider exactly what the VIX represents.  For those that do not know, the spot VIX indicates what traders believe the maximum move the market will make in the next 12 months will be.  This is extremely useful information.  Using 2022 as an example, we know we are down about 20% from the peak at the beginning of the year.  When the VIX spikes above 30% currently, traders are pricing in a peak to trough drop of 50%. 

This is a very large decrease when considered against the average 38% decline of a bear market.  Furthermore, if the VIX persists above 30, it is extremely likely that the market is experiencing further selling, driving the peak to trough estimate even higher.  For example, if we drop 30% from the peak and we have a VIX at 35, a peak to trough decline of 65% is now being priced in, and this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for the VIX to drop precipitously.  Unless we are in a 2008 style environment,  where a total market wipeout was a possibility, the VIX will always drop once the peak to trough estimate becomes too much.  Let's look at the spot VIX for the past 12 months again:

 

 

As can be seen the VIX spends very little time above 30.  However, we must still be prepared for the unexpected as the last 5 years have taught us:

 

 

Even here, the VIX spends very little time above 30, but an outsized move could destroy a trade that is unhedged.  Therefore, we can count on the VIX spending the majority of its time below 30, but must always have protection in place to keep the max drawdown under the 20% target in the event of an ill-timed moderate to extreme vol spike. 
 

The SteadyVol Overview thread possesses a wealth of information on previous trades allowing new subscribers to get up to speed very quickly.

It is recommended that this strategy be traded with Firstrade.  Firstrade has zero commissions and use a true pass-thru of Index option exchange fees.  Annual commissions are estimated to only be 3%-4% of total account capital per year.  Also, there is no charge for their online trading software, which is quite efficient and more than ample for this trade. It's worth to mention that Tradier also has very low commissions for VIX options, and even when trading with more "traditional" brokers, commissions would still account for less than 1% per month.


We encourage all members to check out Firstrade or or at least a broker with competitive commissions. In the current competitive environment, there is no reason to pay more than $0.50/contract.

Service highlights:

• Model portfolio: $10,000
• Underlying: VIX options
• Average holding period: 3-4 weeks
• Tailored for medium term traders
• 2-3 trades per month, plus adjustments
• Less than ~1%/month commission impact (unless trading with Firstrade or Tradier)
• Fully scalable

[jvo 8]

Thanks for this...will backtested results be shown? How far back? 

[vasis 1]

Hi,

How this strategy can be theta positive if you buy debit spread (theta negative) and hedging by uncovered calls (also theta negative)? Or your call hedge is proportional spread?

[SBatch 1,522]

Just now, vasis said:

Hi,

How this strategy can be theta positive if you buy debit spread (theta negative) and hedging by uncovered calls (also theta negative)? Or your call hedge is proportional spread?

Debit spreads can be Theta positive.

[SBatch 1,522]

11 hours ago, jvo said:

Thanks for this...will backtested results be shown? How far back? 

Please see discussion thread for details on manual daily backtest done by Yowster.

[Yowster 7,367]

In the money debit spreads are theta positive because as time passes their value gets closer to the spread width.   Out of the money debit spreads are theta negative because ad time passed their value gets closer to zero 

[NJ_KenRob 140]

On 11/13/2022 at 11:18 AM, stanc said:

Does Tradier pass through the "VIX related exchange fees"?

Tradier charges .35 for index options

[JATE 0]

Hi Is this a positive Vega trade? Also, do you track or trade this using Option Net Explorer? I noticed that that deltas wuth IB do not match with the Deltas in ONE. Not sure if Im missing something. I know ONE has had some issues with greeks

[SBatch 1,522]

13 minutes ago, JATE said:

Hi Is this a positive Vega trade? Also, do you track or trade this using Option Net Explorer? I noticed that that deltas wuth IB do not match with the Deltas in ONE. Not sure if Im missing something. I know ONE has had some issues with greeks

This becomes a positive Vega trade during a vol spike, however, option trading software is not useful for this trade unless at expiration.  The reason for this is our trade follows the options on the VIX future whereas all option modeling software uses the spot VIX.

[SBatch 1,522]

As a reminder, VIX options are extremely liquid.  Most spreads fill at the mid or one or two cents off.

[MrCampana 0]

Hi!!,

First of all congratulations for the contents.
I have some questions about the set up:

1. Is it any reason to choose the width of the Bear Put of 4 points?

2. Where do you situate the Long Call, is it 25 deltas?

3. Instead of using a Bear Put ITM could we use a Bear Cal OTM?.

Thank you,

 

[SBatch 1,522]

3 hours ago, MrCampana said:

Hi!!,

First of all congratulations for the contents.
I have some questions about the set up:

1. Is it any reason to choose the width of the Bear Put of 4 points?

2. Where do you situate the Long Call, is it 25 deltas?

3. Instead of using a Bear Put ITM could we use a Bear Cal OTM?.

Thank you,

 

 

1. Is it any reason to choose the width of the Bear Put of 4 points?

It works well within the max margin of $10,000 on the model portfolio.

 

2. Where do you situate the Long Call, is it 25 deltas?

It is roughly in that area but while also keeping the price under $1.00 per contract if possible.

 

3. Instead of using a Bear Put ITM could we use a Bear Cal OTM?

You can, but we have found in practice that the fills on the DPS are superior compared with the corresponding call spread.

 

[Romuald 85]

I complete my post of 11/11/2022 with more accurate statistics on VIX :

So 80% of the time since 1990 VIX was under 25.3.

 

[DVK426 1]

Scott:

Regarding the trade alerts pertaining to the SteadyVol service, how critical is it to place them once they are posted? Since limit orders are used, will the timing of the trades be compromised or possibly missed if too much time passes between the posting and the actual trade execution?

I mention this in cases of where one may be unable to place a trade in a timely manner. In such instances, would it be advisable to skip the trade?

 

[Peeyotch 220]

This trading system is generally very forgiving of timing. If vol isn’t moving much, the pricing of the position (especially if it is brand new) is not likely to move much either. Even if vol does move, you can watch it for when it comes back into the area where the trade was placed and you can probably get in for a similar price.

 

This contrasts with Steady Options where a quick trigger finger or proactive standing orders are often needed to get into advantageous trades. Those are not necessary here. Skipping a trade is really only called for when there is not enough profit potential left in the trade when you are trying to get in. 

[SBatch 1,522]

26 minutes ago, Peeyotch said:

This trading system is generally very forgiving of timing. If vol isn’t moving much, the pricing of the position (especially if it is brand new) is not likely to move much either. Even if vol does move, you can watch it for when it comes back into the area where the trade was placed and you can probably get in for a similar price.

 

This contrasts with Steady Options where a quick trigger finger or proactive standing orders are often needed to get into advantageous trades. Those are not necessary here. Skipping a trade is really only called for when there is not enough profit potential left in the trade when you are trying to get in. 

@DVK426 In addition, we always have a trade on. Therefore, let’s say for example you missed the official exit at 3.85 and could only get 3.82. However, the official may have paid 3.60 to open the new trade and for example you’re able to get in for 3.57. This dynamic occurs as the front and back month move pretty closely with each other, so it essentially cancels itself out making fast timing not important.

[SBatch 1,522]

For those not trading with Firstrade, there is a way to reduce commissions. The credit put spread can be replaced with additional calls to provide similar protection, while substantially reducing commissions. In this case, one would be typically trading a little over 100 contracts per month total. Considering our 4%-5% target monthly gain, the net profit would still be quite compelling.

[Tobias 1]

Hi @SBatchI wonder, if the common trade can be simplified by only using the (25) debit spread & the (3) long calls. Without the lower credit spread. I think this would be the more initial trade like @Yowster ... As I use IB I would also like to have as few as possible positions / legs on and as few as possible commissions. So, is the easier trade ok? And is this the trade plan for the fund?

[SBatch 1,522]

6 minutes ago, Tobias said:

Hi @SBatchI wonder, if the common trade can be simplified by only using the (25) debit spread & the (3) long calls. Without the lower credit spread. I think this would be the more initial trade like @Yowster ... As I use IB I would also like to have as few as possible positions / legs on and as few as possible commissions. So, is the easier trade ok? And is this the trade plan for the fund?

It could be done that way, but the risk is slightly higher as the CPS is an additional hedge.

[Tobias 1]

Ok, thx @SBatch how many calls would you add to make the structure safe? 25 debit spreads and 3 calls, better 4 or 5 or 6?

[SBatch 1,522]

9 minutes ago, Tobias said:

Ok, thx @SBatch how many calls would you add to make the structure safe? 25 debit spreads and 3 calls, better 4 or 5 or 6?

I would just add one more call and go with 4.

[agoro 2]

Hi scott,

I am much interested on managed fund. Where would I find more information on how to participate?

thank you,

agoro

 

[SBatch 1,522]

1 hour ago, agoro said:

Hi scott,

I am much interested on managed fund. Where would I find more information on how to participate?

thank you,

agoro

 

I will have an extensive update tomorrow, finalizing some items. Thanks for your interest.

[agoro 2]

thank your for a quick response. will you also share that extensive updates here for those that are not current subscribers but are very interested if it were managed

thanks again,

agoro

[SBatch 1,522]

Fund update:

https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/topic/9359-steadyvol-managed-fund/?do=findComment&comment=188627

 

[Marshall 1]

Good morning.  I am new to SteadyVol.  Can you please shed more light or an example of how the monthly returns for this service are calculated?  I am placing my trades using the same size as shown in your trades (my account value is $100,000) and am also pretty closely matching your actual fills in terms of price.  But am not seeing the returns you show in the Performance section of the website.  For example, does the 2.3% return for October represent mark-to-market gains or gains on closed trades, etc?  Any clarity on this topic is greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

[Kim 7,119]

5 minutes ago, Marshall said:

Good morning.  I am new to SteadyVol.  Can you please shed more light or an example of how the monthly returns for this service are calculated?  I am placing my trades using the same size as shown in your trades (my account value is $100,000) and am also pretty closely matching your actual fills in terms of price.  But am not seeing the returns you show in the Performance section of the website.  For example, does the 2.3% return for October represent mark-to-market gains or gains on closed trades, etc?  Any clarity on this topic is greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

It is based on all trades closed in the specific month. For example for October:



If you summarize all 5 trades results, this is what you will get.

 

+79

+100

+124

+239

-308

Total: 234 or 2.34%

 

[Marshall 1]

Thanks, Kim.  Just the info I was seeking.