Coronavirus and its Impact on the Markets

[TrustyJules 2,915]

On 5/13/2020 at 2:50 PM, Kim said:

Thanks for sharing @TrustyJules

From my talks with some medical professionals, the estimate is that this will not be over till 30-50% of the population is infected. In US, that's 100 MILLION people. Taking a very conservative mortality rate of 0.5%, that's half million deaths in US only. Worldwide, it translates to over 2 BILLION infected and 10 MILLION deaths.

I really hope those numbers are not correct. Any medical experts here can comment? 

Just returning to this thread of March sadly it seems that @Kim was underestimating the deaths. 375,000 confirmed due to COVID so far and probably double that if we take into account the fact not all surplus deaths are correctly attributed. Its a little dis-concerting to note that my estimate - which was what I thought absolute worse case by drawing a parallel between the Spanish flu and COVID - may turn out to be close to truth.  Here's hoping the vaccine will flatten the curve.

 

And yes I know this is a necrothread - no pun intended.

[Ringandpinion 1,618]

2 hours ago, TrustyJules said:

Just returning to this thread of March sadly it seems that @Kim was underestimating the deaths. 375,000 confirmed due to COVID so far and probably double that if we take into account the fact not all surplus deaths are correctly attributed. Its a little dis-concerting to note that my estimate - which was what I thought absolute worse case by drawing a parallel between the Spanish flu and COVID - may turn out to be close to truth.  Here's hoping the vaccine will flatten the curve.

The Spanish flu was pegged at 18% mortality, other say 10-20%, hit the youngest the hardest.  Deaths were approx 50 million.  According to worldinfometer, a worldwide death rate including the initial unprepared spread is 2.2%, US death rate 1.7%.  If you look at the numbers in the US, with 18m cases already and look at the probable exposure for millions of others, that 100 million has probably already been passed unless the virus is way less infectious that proposed.  You don't listen to the talking heads for your trading, definitely don't listen to them in "Chicken Little" mode, it'll just depress you.  Not to say the situation isn't serious, but nothing is ever as bad as the news media says, bad news sells, sells, sells.  If they told me the earth was round, I would start reading old medieval texts about a flat earth to be sure.  The real challenge is finding someone reporting things honestly.  And in the words of one of my heroes, "it is always darkest, just before......it goes completely black".