Where to Share Trade Made info?

[red_bp 0]

If there isn't already a topic open about a particular trade, what's the protocol/right place to share trade-made-info?

 

For example, this forum topic

 

http://steadyoptions.com/forum/topic/1497-september-16-20-2013-trade-candidates/

 

includes some good ORCL straddle info as it relates to earnings.  On 9/16, I opened ORCL Oct 19 $33 straddle at $2.14 (its now showing $2.23).  The trade should hopefully pop up post-earnings and, thus, I plan to sell tomorrow.  

 

So, where to share info? would I put a new topic under earnings trades? Here? in the trade-candidate thread?   Not exactly an interesting trade, but it made me realize I didn't know where to share

 

Thanks! 

Edited September 18, 2013 by red_bp

[Kim 7,512]

The candidates topic would be a good place if there is no stock specific topic. They report tomorrow AC, so you need to sell tomorrow before the close.

[red_bp 0]

Thanks, Kim.

 

I may be confused--the earnings is today after close.

 

I expected increase in straddle value post earnings with stock movement.  And, to close trade tomorrow following earnings which are today after hour.  No?

Edited September 18, 2013 by red_bp

[Kim 7,512]

Yes, they report today, so I would close it before the close today.

[Kim 7,512]

We usually don't hold those straddles through earnings - please read the Read This First forum.

[red_bp 0]

Hummm...I'm missing something.  Didn't close it.  Going with closing it tomorrow.  AH move is a jump up and I was counting on that to increase straddle value tomorrow not today.  It did bump up 9.8% as of right before closing ($2.35) today (that was largely the call increasing in value) but I expect higher tomorrow.  I won't cry in my tea about it if it doesn't, but my look at historical stock movement (and expected movement) concurred with DBH21 look at straddles increasing +1 day after earnings announcement.  Perhaps I read DBH21 incorrectly though.  

I do get it that the collapse in IV from earnings date to next day is very large and my straddle is then reliant upon stock movement alone (similar to purchase of  far OTM call pre-earnings which is very much a gambler's move)...

 

Edited September 18, 2013 by red_bp

[Kim 7,512]

The stock closed around 33.80 today and you had a 33 straddle. It is up to 34.20 AH. What if it went down back to 33? IV collapse would cause your trade to lose at least 30%. I think the move to 34.20 is still not enough to make the trade profitable, but the loss will probably be minimal. 

 

I would strongly encourage all new members:

1. Read the Read This First forum. There are few good links that explain why we don't hold those trades through earnings.

2. Not to take the trade if you don't fully understand how it is supposed to make money, what are the risks, what is the rationale behind the strategy etc.

3. To paper trade for at least one month.

 

If anything is not clear, PLEASE ask. We are here to help.

[Yowster 8,014]

Looking at historical IV charts, ORCL IV on the Oct series is likely to drop to around 20%.  Which means your break-even point is about $35 for the stock tomorrow.    At $34.25, the spread will likely be worth something around the $1.80 to $1.90 range tomorrow.

[dbh21 62]

Hummm...I'm missing something.  Didn't close it.  Going with closing it tomorrow.  AH move is a jump up and I was counting on that to increase straddle value tomorrow not today.  It did bump up 9.8% as of right before closing ($2.35) today (that was largely the call increasing in value) but I expect higher tomorrow.  I won't cry in my tea about it if it doesn't, but my look at historical stock movement (and expected movement) concurred with DBH21 look at straddles increasing +1 day after earnings announcement.  Perhaps I read DBH21 incorrectly though.  

I do get it that the collapse in IV from earnings date to next day is very large and my straddle is then reliant upon stock movement alone (similar to purchase of  far OTM call pre-earnings which is very much a gambler's move)...

 

My charts just show this historical data (if you placed straddles or dbl cals) for the 4 earnings. For oracle, the monthlies on average looked great to hold through earnings, but I also attached the non-averaged data to show how those post-earning trades actually faired (which I normally do not because it is overwhelming). Roughly speaking, it was a 3:4 chance of it working out for you historically. I'm going to eventually present those statistics more clearly, but for now it is what it is.

[Mikael 31]

I actually sold the 32 34 36 iron fly for 1.22 credit before close. lol

[red_bp 0]

DBH21--yes,thank you.  Your data was useful (and not overwhelming, btw), and I appreciate it.  It reinforced the information I'd pulled about stock movement for ORCL. 

 

In the general case, thus far, I've made more money simply from IV collapse with earnings than anything else--therefore, this trade (buying and holding the straddle through earnings) is opposite of my normal trading preferences when I think there will be large IV collapse immediately with earnings.  

[red_bp 0]

Looking at historical IV charts, ORCL IV on the Oct series is likely to drop to around 20%.  Which means your break-even point is about $35 for the stock tomorrow.    At $34.25, the spread will likely be worth something around the $1.80 to $1.90 range tomorrow.

 Thanks so much.  The highest I saw after hours pop was $34.85 or so before dropping back down to $34.20-ish.  

[Kim 7,512]

DBH21--yes,thank you.  Your data was useful (and not overwhelming, btw), and I appreciate it.  It reinforced the information I'd pulled about stock movement for ORCL. 

 

In the general case, thus far, I've made more money simply from IV collapse with earnings than anything else--therefore, this trade (buying and holding the straddle through earnings) is opposite of my normal trading preferences when I think there will be large IV collapse immediately with earnings.  

The IV collapse WILL happen after earnings - this is one things that is 100% sure. The question is: will be move be large enough to offset the IV collapse? If the answer is yes, you might have some nice gains. But if the stock doesn't move, your loss can be substantial. Since we are trying to limit our losses to 10-15%, this style (holding through earnings) is just not what we do.

 

ORCL is actually not a bad candidate to hold - it would be profitable more than 50% of the time. However, last September, the straddle would lose 30%+ (the weekly would lose over 50%) because the stock did not move enough. So if you do that, you just need to be prepared and structure position sizing accordingly. 

[Mikael 31]

i ended up buying back the iron fly for 69 cents.