Ophir Gottlieb

* Let's say earnings are on May 5th. * Let's say weekly options exist expiring May 7th. * Let's say May monthlies exist expiring May 20th. The trade is: Do you do this? * OPEN: Sell ATM straddle in May 7th weeklies on May 1 * Buy ATM straddle May 20th th monthlies on May 1 * Close both on on May 4th Is that it?

1. So you sell the weekly options in the week of earnings, and let earnings happen, then close at expiration. 2. You own the back week (or whenever) and also hold through earnings 3. You close both legs at the same time. Is that right?

@cuegis @bam1960 Hi Guys, Can you tell me exactly the earnings calendar that Steady Option does so I can make sure it is available in Trade Machine? Thank you.

Hi Bret, We are adding custom strategies, so you can create whatever you like up to 4-legs. It doesn't even have to be a standard strategy, 4-legs, however you like them.

The current version does not do calendars, but the custom version will. You can sign up now for $49 and will automatically get upgraded to the Premium version when we release it, but once we do release it, if you are not a member, it will be $99. As always, you cancel at any time. For Steady Option members, the sign up page is here: https://cmlviz.com/register/cml-trademachine-49-mo-promotion-so/

The current version does not do calendars, but the custom version will. You can sign up now for $49 and will automatically get upgraded to the Premium version when we release it, but once we do release it, if you are not a member, it will be $99. As always, you cancel at any time. For Steady Option members, the sign up page is here: https://cmlviz.com/register/cml-trademachine-49-mo-promotion-so/

Hello All, We will be releasing (finally), custom strategies and multi-ticker back-tests this Sunday night. These added features will be rolled into what we will call CML Trade Machine Premium and it will cost $99 / mo. The current version will still be $49/mo and both products get all the TM insights / set-ups. We are not taking anything away from the current version, we are creating a premium version with new features. Just wanted everyone to know so there are no surprises. My very best, Ophir

We are using the data from the day before the holiday but the date that is printing in the trade list is wrong, we're fixing that bug now.

It looks like we using Tesla's quarterly announcement for unit sales as earnings, not the earnings date. I think this is correct. Also, can you share he back-test link so we can look at the jan 1 issue?

How to Trade Covered Calls in Tesla Inc How to Trade Covered Calls in Tesla Inc Date Published: 2017-06-05 This article can be watched as a video, below, or read as a dossier below this video: PREFACE A covered call is a common option strategies for owners of a stock, but the fact that it is ubiquitous has also meant a lack of rigor. With relative ease, we can go much further -- to identify the risks we want to take, and those that we don't, to optimize our results. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a great example. STORY Before we get into a real action strategy, we can look at how selling a covered call in Tesla Inc has done over the last two-years, trading monthly options, and how it has failed. We see a weak 4.8% return and of the 27 times this trade was put on, it only was a winner 15-times, or 55.6% of the time. Now we take the first step (of two), to dig out the risk and optimize the returns. Earnings is one of the riskiest events for a stock, so let's see what happens if we always avoid earnings but do the same strategy -- a covered call every month for two-years. What we want to impress upon you is how easy this is with the right tools. Just tap the appropriate settings. And here are the results: We can see the returns have nearly tripled to 13.1% and the win-rate is now up to 68%. But, if we're fair with our analysis, this isn't particularly exciting either. So what next? Are there better months to sell a covered call than other months? It turns out that the answer for Tesla Inc is, yes. BETTER We can test a simple idea: As the earnings date approaches for Tesla Inc, we can try a hypothesis that the stock will neither "go up a lot" nor will "go down a lot" in just that month right before earnings. If this is true, then selling a covered call should work very well. Here is how we set it up: Rules * Sell a covered call 29 days before earnings * Close the position one day before earnings We note that we are not taking earnings risk, but are closing the covered call before earnings. It's easy to see in the settings: And now, here the results over the last year: Back-test Link The return has jumped to 36.9% and the win-rate has jumped to 75%. In the last two-years this has worked six of the last eight times. We can also see how this has done over the last year and six-months: One-Year Back-test Link That 15.7% return in the last year came from just 4-months of trading, which is in fact over 60% annualized returns. WHAT HAPPENED For those that are long Tesla Inc stock, a 36.9% return from just the month before earnings in the last two-years is a serious find. So too is a 15.7% return in just 4-months of trading over the last year. To see how to do this for any stock we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. Back-test Link

We post 3-10 trade setups a week which get our members thinking about various ways to approach a trade. You can see it explicitly here (again, not advice, just getting the wheels turning). http://bit.ly/TM_returns PORTFOLIO RETURNS # Wins # Losses Win % Average Return Median Return 27 9 75% 45% 14.5% Published Ticker Custom Earnings Description Frequency Return (%) Back-test Link 6/2/17 FB Yes Custom Earnings + Covered Call Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 6/1/17 AVGO Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/30/17 JPM Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread + Stop Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/25/17 ULTA Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread + Stop Monthly 8.8 Link 5/23/17 V Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/23/17 GS Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/18/17 ADSK Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly 14.2 Link 5/16/17 BABA - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings Monthly -3.7 Link 5/15/17 AVGO Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle Monthly 3.3 Link 5/11/17 REGN Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/10/17 GPRO Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/9/17 NVDA Yes Custom Earnings + Long Condor Monthly 87.4 Link 5/9/17 NFLX Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/8/17 TWTR Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/5/17 AMBA Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/5/17 KO Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/4/17 INTC Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/4/17 FB Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/3/17 TSLA Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/2/17 AAPL Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/2/17 TWTR Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/1/17 AAPL Yes Custom Earnings + Long Strangle Monthly 59.9 Link 4/27/17 GOOGL Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 4/26/17 SBUX - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings Monthly 3.2 Link 4/24/17 AAPL - Long Iron Condor + Avoid Earnings + Stop Monthly 12.1 Link 4/20/17 TSLA - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings + Stop Every Two-Months Not Triggered Yet Link 4/19/17 MS - Long Strangle + Avoid Earnings Monthly -97.9 Link 4/17/17 BABA - Long Risk Reversal + Avoid Earnings + Stop Every Two-Weeks 19 Link 4/12/17 NVDA - Long Iron Condor + Avoid Earnings Monthly 122.2 Link 4/7/17 AMZN - Long Iron Condor + Avoid Earnings Monthly 51.1 Link 4/4/17 JPM - Short Puts Monthly -5.1 Link 4/3/17 DAL - Short Puts Monthly 14.7 Link 3/29/17 GOOGL - Short Put Spread + Stop Monthly 33.8 Link 3/28/17 VEEV - Short Put Spread Monthly 51.8 Link 3/27/17 IBM - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings Weekly -60.1 Link 3/22/17 ANET - Short Put Spread + Stop Monthly 31.6 Link 3/22/17 AMD - Short Put + Stops + Limits Monthly -40.2 Link 3/21/17 HP - Short Put + Avoid Earnings + Stop Monthly 1.1 Link 3/20/17 DIS - Short Put + Avoid Earnings + Stop Weekly 2.3 Link 3/20/17 AMZN - Short Put Spread + Stop Weekly 28.7 Link 3/17/17 ULTA - Short Put + Avoid Earnings + Stop Every Two-Weeks -4.8 Link 3/16/17 ORCL - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 3/15/17 SWKS - Short Put + Avoid Earnings Monthly 29.2 Link 3/13/17 NFLX - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings + Stop Monthly 65.7 Link 3/12/17 TSLA (closed) - Long Call + Avoid Earnngs + Stop Weekly 968.9 Link 3/8/17 ADBE - Short Put + Avoid Earnings Weekly 17.2 Link 3/6/17 AMGN - Covered Call + Avoid Earnings Monthly -8.9 Link 3/6/17 AAPL - Covered Call + Avoid Earnings Monthly 7.6 Link 3/6/17 CELG - Short Put + Avoid Earnings + Stop Weekly 6.7 Link 3/2/17 BAC - Short Put + Avoid Earnings Every Two-Weeks -8.7 Link 2/27/17 GLD - Short Put Spread + Stop Every Two-Weeks 34.8 Link 2/21/17 V - Short Put Spread Every Two-Weeks 119.7 Link 2/20/17 MSFT - Short Put + Stop Every Two-Weeks 26.3 Link 2/15/17 VXX - Short Call Spread + Stop Every Two-Weeks -5.2 Link 2/13/17 QQQ - Short Put + Stop Monthly 20.6 Link

That is great news! We hope to improve everyone's trading and much like Kim, we don't hand you a fish, we teach you to fish for yourself.

Well, it's looking very good right now. Big risk -- but they beat handily an stock is up $8 AH.

Trading Broadcom Ltd Options Right After Earnings Date Published: 2017-06-01 Written by Ophir Gottlieb LEDE There is a way to trade Broadcom Ltd (NASDAQ:AVGO) options right after earnings that has been a winner more than 85% of the time over the last two-years and has returned almost 120% annualized returns over the last six-months. The Trade After Earnings The earning moves is the headline grabber for stocks, but for Broadcom Ltd, irrespective of whether the earnings move was up or down, if we waited two-days after the market move from earnings, and then sold an out of the money put spread, the results were very strong and risk was well defined. We can examine this, objectively, with a custom option back-test. Here is our earnings set-up: Rules * Open short put spread 2-days after earnings. * Close short put spread 29-days later. * Use the option that is closest to but greater than 30-days away from expiration. Here is the timing of the trade in an image: And here are the results of implementing this strategy: Back-test Link Focusing in just the month after earnings, we see a 35.3% return over a total of 7 earnings releases. We also see that this idea won 6 times and lost 1 times. Since we are covering just seven earnings releases, and each trade is just one-month in length, that 35.3% is over just a seven-month period, which comes out to 60% if annualized. This is not a trade that ties up capital for very long. The Logic Our idea here is that after earnings are reported, and after the stock does all of its gymnastics, up or down, that two-days following the earnings move and for the next month, the stock is then in a quiet period. If it gapped down -- that gap is over. If it beat earnings, the downside move is already likely muted. Here's how this strategy has done over the last year: Back-test Link The "single-month" approach returned 20.2% over the last four earnings cycles -- that's just four months of trading. Finally, here are the results over the last six-months: Back-test Link That's about 20% over just two earnings cycles, with both trades turning out to be winners. If we consider that the 19.8% return was just over two-months (two earnings cycles, holding the short-put spread for one-month each), the return is actually just below 120% annualized. WHAT HAPPENED To see how to do this for any stock and for any strategy with just the click of a few buttons, we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. The author has no position in Broadcom Ltd as of this writing. Back-test Link

Using JPMorgan Chase & Co Options to Out Smart Market Risk Date Published: 2017-05-30 Written by Ophir Gottlieb LEDE There is a way to trade JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) options that is risk protected but out smarts the market with the timing of the trade. If we leverage the idea that the stock "won't go down very much" but add two strict risk protections in case it does, while also avoiding earnings, we find the one risk protected option trade right after earnings that has been a consistent winner, has returned over 85% annualized returns in the last six-months and has been a bastion of safety over the last 3-years. The Trade After Earnings While most of the focus in the market is on the earnings move for a stock, for JPMorgan Chase & Co, irrespective of whether the earnings move was up or down, if we waited two-days after the market move from earnings, and then sold an out of the money put spread, the results were very strong and risk was well defined. Even further, if we added a stop loss to the short-put spread to limit the losses even more, we find a fairly conservative option trade with strong returns. We can examine this, objectively, with a custom option back-test. Here is our earnings set-up: And then we add a stop loss: Rules * Open short put spread 2 day after earnings. * Close short put spread 29 days later. * Use the option that is closest to but greater than 30-days away from expiration. * Use a stop loss at 50% to reduce risk. Here is the timing of the trade in an image: And here are the results of implementing this strategy: Back-test Link Focusing in just the month after earnings, we see a 56.2% return over a total of 11 earnings releases. We also see that this idea won 8 times and lost 3 times. The Logic Our idea here is that after earnings are reported, and after the stock does all of its gymnastics, up or down, that two-days following the earnings move and for the next month, the stock is then in a quiet period. If it gapped down -- that gap is over. If it beat earnings, the downside move is already likely muted. Here's how this strategy has done over the last two-years: Back-test Link The "single-month" approach returned 26% over the last seven earnings cycles -- that's just seven months of trading. Finally, here are the results over the last 1-year: Back-test Link That's about 20% over three earnings cycles, with all three turning out to be winners. And for completeness, here are the results over the last six-months. Back-test Link If we consider that the 14.6% return was just over two-months (two earnings cycles, holding the short-put spread with a stop loss for one-month each), that 14.6% in two-months is 87.6% annualized. WHAT HAPPENED To see how to do this for any stock and for any strategy with just the click of a few buttons, we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. The author has no position in JPMorgan Chase & Co as of this writing. Back-test Link

We use trading days up to 5 in custom earnings, then switch to calendar. We are considering having setting for each member to toggle between calendar and trading days, but it's not a highly demanded feature so we not high on the priority list.

We use trading days up to 5 in custom earnings, then switch to calendar. We are considering having setting for each member to toggle between calendar and trading days, but it's not a highly demanded feature so we not high on the priority list.

Here are the portfolio results over the last 3-months, average holding period is about 6 weeks. We have short vol, long vol, avoiding earnings, custom earnings, stops, limits, stocks, ETFs, and VXX PORTFOLIO RETURNS # Wins # Losses Win % Average Return Median Return 26 8 76.5% 34.3% 13.4% Published Ticker Custom Earnings Description Frequency Return (%) Back-test Link 5/25/17 ULTA Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread + Stop Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/23/17 V Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/23/17 GS Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/18/17 ADSK Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly 12 Link 5/16/17 BABA - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings Monthly -5.1 Link 5/15/17 AVGO Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/11/17 REGN Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/10/17 GPRO Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/9/17 NVDA Yes Custom Earnings + Long Condor Monthly 51 Link 5/9/17 NFLX Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/8/17 TWTR Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/5/17 AMBA Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/5/17 KO Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/4/17 INTC Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/4/17 FB Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/3/17 TSLA Yes Custom Earnings + Short Put Spread Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 5/2/17 AAPL Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/2/17 TWTR Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 5/1/17 AAPL Yes Custom Earnings + Long Strangle Monthly 75.4 Link 4/27/17 GOOGL Yes Custom Earnings + Long Straddle One Week Not Triggered Yet Link 4/26/17 SBUX - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings Monthly 3.6 Link 4/24/17 AAPL - Long Iron Condor + Avoid Earnings + Stop Monthly 12.3 Link 4/20/17 TSLA - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings + Stop Every Two-Months Not Triggered Yet Link 4/19/17 MS - Long Strangle + Avoid Earnings Monthly -58.8 Link 4/17/17 BABA - Long Risk Reversal + Avoid Earnings + Stop Every Two-Weeks 18.8 Link 4/12/17 NVDA - Long Iron Condor + Avoid Earnings Monthly 77.5 Link 4/7/17 AMZN - Long Iron Condor + Avoid Earnings Monthly 9.7 Link 4/4/17 JPM - Short Puts Monthly 3.8 Link 4/3/17 DAL - Short Puts Monthly 14.5 Link 3/29/17 GOOGL - Short Put Spread + Stop Monthly 30 Link 3/28/17 VEEV - Short Put Spread Monthly 50.9 Link 3/27/17 IBM - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings Weekly -61 Link 3/22/17 ANET - Short Put Spread + Stop Monthly 25.8 Link 3/22/17 AMD - Short Put + Stops + Limits Monthly -41 Link 3/21/17 HP - Short Put + Avoid Earnings + Stop Monthly 1.1 Link 3/20/17 DIS - Short Put + Avoid Earnings + Stop Weekly 3.9 Link 3/20/17 AMZN - Short Put Spread + Stop Weekly 19.8 Link 3/17/17 ULTA - Short Put + Avoid Earnings + Stop Every Two-Weeks -8.5 Link 3/16/17 ORCL - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings Monthly Not Triggered Yet Link 3/15/17 SWKS - Short Put + Avoid Earnings Monthly 29.1 Link 3/13/17 NFLX - Short Put Spread + Avoid Earnings + Stop Monthly 59.2 Link 3/12/17 TSLA - Long Call + Avoid Earnngs + Stop Weekly 635.4 Link 3/8/17 ADBE - Short Put + Avoid Earnings Weekly 16.3 Link 3/6/17 AMGN - Covered Call + Avoid Earnings Monthly -10.7 Link 3/6/17 AAPL - Covered Call + Avoid Earnings Monthly 7.6 Link 3/6/17 CELG - Short Put + Avoid Earnings + Stop Weekly 9.4 Link 3/2/17 BAC - Short Put + Avoid Earnings Every Two-Weeks -7.3 Link 2/27/17 GLD - Short Put Spread + Stop Every Two-Weeks 31.5 Link 2/21/17 V - Short Put Spread Every Two-Weeks 118.9 Link 2/20/17 MSFT - Short Put + Stop Every Two-Weeks 26.2 Link 2/15/17 VXX - Short Call Spread + Stop Every Two-Weeks -6.8 Link 2/13/17 QQQ - Short Put + Stop Monthly 20.6 Link Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. The author may hold a position in some of the stocks named above. The information contained on this site is provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. Consult the appropriate professional advisor for more complete and current information. 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I actually haven't seen a debate and certainly have no joy in arguing. I like what you wrote and I have nothing else to really add, unless someone has a question.

I detailed this reality in a video, if you like, for Google, but it applies to all: You can feel free to use this as your response whenever you like. You are right. It's a fact, and it is not disputable.

Yes! Correct!

Just a side note that our closing prices are adjusted for the wide closes, so that is not an issue. But, very true, execution fill type is one of the most common differences between various back-tests when trying to replicate.

This is a matter of you putting a little effort in, right? Just match one window to the next. Did you put in a stop loss? Is the execution fill type the same? Those are my best two guesses.

That is exactly what's happening. Glad you see that.

Back-test link.