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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/11/2020 in Posts

  1. 2 points
    Took a look and it was strange but the reason is the number of weeks between the earning date and the expiry. There are no weeklies, and you can see that the number of weeks between the earning date and the expiry is not the same between cycles, so that's why this cycle it seems "cheap".
  2. 1 point
    Taking a stab: the straddle approximation formula gives the price of a perfectly ATM straddle as [1/2000 x UnderlyingPrice x avg IV of put+call x squareroot(DTE) ] Which would imply that RV is the same formula with the underlying price removed (ie divide S.A.F. by underlying price). [1/2000 x avg IV of long straddle put+call x squareroot(DTE)] If you've got the IV for t and the DTE for each cycle (which you can work out from 3w vs this week + Friday expiry) you should be able to manually calculate RV of a perfectly ATM straddle.
  3. 1 point
    I am embarrassed that I did not consider that. Thank you for pointing it out. Is there a way to "normalize" the data based on the typical time to earnings event or is this a rare case? I am worried that what I have been considering to be a "cheap" straddle is just an artifact of the time to earnings.
  4. 1 point
    Looks interesting. Not sure why straddle RV is so low. I found this about past average moves The 97.5 straddle has been dropping in price and I calculate a 6.8% RV. Looks like RV picks up the last few days so maybe keep your eye on it or leg into small trades with the hope you get an RV boost the last few days?
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