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Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/16/2015 in Posts

  1. 1 point
    By this time last cycle, we'd already exited our consistently profitable NFLX calendar (a 4 wk version in this instance). Official entry point for the double calendar was ~1.3% of the stock price (or, $8.40 / ~$650). The official exit was for a gain of >20% at 1.55% of the stock price. The DC spread climbed to over 2% leading up to earnings, and many of us booked exceptional profits. So, I'm looking at spreads for the current cycle in this post-split NFLX (as an aside, it took a lot of explaining to my wife why I was in such a bad mood for an entire day upon hearing the news that NFLX would be splitting). It would be a 5 week setup this time (long Nov, short Oct, ER confirmed for Oct 14th). The DCs are around $3.90, or 3.8% of the stock price! If there hadn't been a split, that % would equate to a DC price of $27.30! A few observations (note: all IVs referenced are for the $105 strike, stock is @ $103): IV is much higher for the 1st post-earnings expiry, the Oct monthlies, at 72%, compared to 45%–50% last cycle The IV drop for the Nov monthlies is much less than typically seen, as IV is still at 60% for that expiry date Maybe most perplexing, even the the options expiring before earnings have an astronomical IV, which, at 52% for the Oct wk 2 options, is higher than post earnings options last cycle ​Unfortunately, these observations lead me not to robotic execution of an assuredly profitable trade, but rather to merely a bunch of head scratching and brow furrowing. So, I thought I'd start a topic for an idea kick-around. My initial instinct is to open a 1 wk calendar that straddles earnings due to the high IV of the Oct wk 2 options, which have traded as low as $2.65 today for the $105 call calendars.
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