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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/20/2015 in Posts

  1. 1 point
    We need to see how the prices are. If the stocks are volatile, the prices might already reflect that, and if IV comes down and the stock doesn't move, the trade will suffer. I still prefer to trade expirations that are supported by upcoming earnings.
  2. 1 point
    What I mean is that there is uncertainty leading up to the FOMC announcement and right after the announcement the VIX and IV collapses in SPY and TLT. Take a look at the VIX chart on each day of the FOMC announcement, the VIX pops leading up to the meeting announcement. http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=466474&cust=mam&year=2015&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=455475&cust=mam
  3. 1 point
    This is the type of short-term trade structure I put on after a VIX pop, if the VIX rises gradually I'll move up my short strike to turn it into a calendar. If the VIX makes a huge pop (which is the worst case for this trade) then I'd close the short leg and let the long leg ride for a bit know that history is on my side (for the last 3 years or so) for a drop. That being said, I do not have one of these trades on currently - with the VIX at a fairly extreme low I'm a little uncomfortable with a 2-week trade looking for VIX to remain the same or dropping further. However, if you are looking at a longer trend trade with your long leg expiration being farther out then selling a short-term ATM put would make sense.
  4. 1 point
    You are right about the margin requirement being the same for the 2 different types of trades and the return being the same if the VXX moves below your put strikes... but if the VXX winds up near expiration not moving that much and is above my put strikes and below my call strikes then the call credit spread and put debit spread combo will be break-even, but if you just use the put debit spread then the trade would be a loser.
  5. 1 point
    You may have things backwards here - when you sell a VIX put credit spread you want the VIX to spike up. This trade will lose if VIX stays low. So your reward comes if the VIX rises and not when it stays low. I agree with ebdoc in that you don't want to use VXX to play for a spike up in the VIX - because the selling of front month to buy the next month is typically at a higher price which drives the price of the VXX down (so that will be working against a VXX trade playing for a rise in the VIX). That being said, I love using VXX trades to play for the VIX to go down after its been up for a bunch of days because then this behavior can work in your favor.
  6. 1 point
    You don't want to use VXX or UVXY, they have significant contango drag with the VIX futures, unless the you think the VIX term structure will go from contango towards backwardation in a short time period. It basically means that when the front month VIX futures are less than the 2nd month VIX futures, they are in a contango state, and VXX and UVXY is constantly selling front month VIX futures to buy next month VIX futures (which is going to be more expensive) on a daily basis. So when VIX futures are in contango, VXX and UVXY will constantly go down. That's why it has to periodically reverse split, because they constantly go towards 0, unless there is backwardation in the VIX futures term structure, where VXX and UVXY will pop and go up 10-30% in a short time period. There's more info about this on the following sites: http://vixcontango.com/Site/Introduction#InsideVolatilityETFs http://sixfigureinvesting.com/2013/04/how-does-vxx-work/ http://seekingalpha.com/article/3012686-how-does-uvxy-work http://seekingalpha.com/article/3327635-caution-needed-in-the-current-volatility-market http://vixcentral.com/ The risk reward on the 16/13 August put spread is a max profit of 210, and max loss of 90 per spread. The breakeven is VIX at 13.90 at August expiration. I'm expecting that VIX won't stay at 12 between now and then, just based on the fact that there's a fed meeting at the end of the month, non-farm jobs report the first week of August, there's additional economic data coming out, a ton of earnings reports, etc. I'd still make something off the spread if there's just a small temporary pop in the VIX. In addition to that SPY & SPX IV Rank is at 0%, and VRatio (VXV/VIX) is above 1.2. That doesn't mean that it's definitely going to be a winning trade, but I like the odds that VIX won't stay at 12 and under for the next month.
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