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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/06/2015 in Posts

  1. 2 points
    In order to get accurate P&L charts through earnings, you need to model the one-day volatility crush associated with earnings. Unfortunately, most options software (including what brokers provide) is not equipped to accurately model this volatility. You generally can't do it yourself on their platform even if you decrease the IV, because it decreases it across all options equally. If you broker lets you model changes in IV for different option chains, you might be able to do it, but then you need to know how to model it, which is itself a challenge. There is some software (OptionVue and the spreadsheet that's included with Exploiting Earnings Volatility are the two I know of) that does model the IV collapse with reasonable accuracy, but even then it is difficult to come up with profitable options trades. In order to employ earnings trading as a profitable strategy, you need some kind of edge over the market. You either need to be better than the market at predicting volatility (size of move), direction of move, or at finding pricing discrepancies within the option chain. I've been working on it for several months now. I do think it's possible, but neither easy nor for the feint of heart.
  2. 1 point
    Hi guys, I am now a SO member since February 2015. What you need to know is that I am still a newbie at options trading. I finally went through all my trades and compared them against the performance posted I jused the exact same calculation as Kim. My results though are far away from Kims but I made money with his newsletter and thats after deducting the fees of his service. I enjoyed the time so far and I still have to learn a lot to master everything. I will keep updating my results so you guys get also a feeling of possible mistake one can make. I probably covered quite some mistakes Please note it's mainly my fault that I don't have the performance as good as SO. I already sent a comparison for March which was incomplete and not all trades were included. Here are my honest final results. Whats your expirience? How do you master the steep learning curve?
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