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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/30/2015 in Posts

  1. 1 point
    Well, I listened to Jeff Augen's webinar. He toted a weekly strategy that he claims has a 90% and above success rate. His reasons on why this trade is so successful are: Increased market (makers) efficiency in regards to pricing options to encapsulate weekend time decay. According to Jeff, two years ago, it was around 50%. However, within the last year, over 90% of weekend time decay is priced into the options my market close on Friday. The foolish retail investor who tries to sell time decay on weeklies in order to make the quick buck. High index like liquidity of some stocks, such as AAPL. He gave an example using AAPL and AMZN, however, he says these strats will also work on indices. So without further delay... The two strategies that me mentions in order to take advantage of the above are: A long butterfly & A short butterfly Well, sounds simple enough. But like with everything else, timing is key. For the Long butterfly trade, Augen sets the following conditions. Entry Day: Thursday, when new weeklies enter the market. If a market moving event is expected on Friday (the next day), such as a jobs report, then wait until it's over before entering the trade. Entry Time: Thursday by 10:00 Trade criteria: ATM (or close to it) butterfly. Highly liquid stock, well, such as AAPL or GOOG. Exit: He suggests, exiting by Friday close, however, the position could be held until Tuesday (morning?). After which the rapid effects of time decay will begin to take hold of the trade. Well, on my backtesting, I had a very high success rate. I used OnDemand in TOS. I would like to double check the results using another service like OptionVue. But I found it quite hard to lose money. I guess if the stock had a really high open (in the case of AAPL it if the stock gaped up 15 dollars), then we would have to take one for the team. Another thing that I noticed, is that usually I could take the trade off the table by around 10-11 on Friday, with profits. And only on a rare occasion did I have to hold it over the weekend (once, out of over 20 trials). For the second strategy, the Short butterfly Augen suggests the following. Entry Day: Friday expiration day on Weeklies (day 0). Entry Time: Approx 1pm. Trade criteria: A reasonably volatile stock, such as, you guessed it, AAPL. Exit: Well, basically he assumed that within those three hours, that most likely the stock would be ITM or close to it. He didn't give many details, but promised to come back and go into the trade further in another session. Again, using TOS OnDemand, I found that the trade did work as advertised. For my purposes, however, if the trade wasn't profitable after 1 hour, I would do an adjustment by selling another butterfly in the strike right below (upward trending market) or right above (downward trending market) the middle strike of the currently held short butterfly. This reduced my overall exposure and made it easier to profit in the currently trending direction. Well, that's it... The whole process seemed to good to be true, so I am not sure if there is something wrong with the way TOS OnDemand works in these cases, or if the strategy is really this profitable. However, according to Augen, it's supposed to be. Kim (and forum members) please give your commentary, and test this out as well if you can. The only thing that troubled me slightly during the webinar is that when Augen said that he completely gave up on trying to predict the direction of the market and that doing so is a fools game. He would much prefer to hold cash, and trade such strategies (anomalies) when they appear. However, he did talk briefly at one point about some of his indicators (I am assuming the ones that he built) that his subscribers use to predict the bottoms and tops (basically, the direction) of the market or a particular stock. -DW [update] They upload the video to their site... http://optionstribe.com/2012/08/recording-of-how-to-capitalize-on-price-distortions-in-weekly-options-jeff-augen/
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