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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS – 17 MARCH 2021

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Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up Thursday morning. The Shanghai composite is down 0.15% at 3,561.00. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.08% at 354.45. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 0.24% to 28,799. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 0.10% at 28,840, while the Topix index is down 0.08% at 1942.5. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.38% to 3287.73. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.09% at 7291.8.

European equities Wednesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 1.15% down at 15456.39, CAC 40 futures down 0.91% at 6551.07 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.23% at 7,087.6.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.21% at 33874.25. The S&P 500 down 0.11% to 4241.83 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.19% at 14318.1, NYSE closes at 16437.62 down 0.07%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.02% at 1.39607. The USDJPY up 0.01% at 110.968. The USDCHF up 0.14% at 0.91926. EURUSD down 0.01% at 1.19250, EUR/GBP up 0.05% at 0.85411. The USD/CNY up 0.09% at 6.4801, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures down 0.18% at $1,774.40. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.08% to $25.869 per ounce, Platinum down 1.23% at $1075.22 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.19% to $2,618.50.

Crude Oil mix on Thursday; Brent crude oil down 0.21% to $75.24 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.01% at $70.59.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 32618.25 down 3.07%, Ethereum at 1912.38 down 2.86%, Litecoin at 128.03 down 0.74%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

TESLA Inc. up 5.269% at $656.57, TWITTER Inc. up 4.249% at $66.49, FORD MOTOR Co. up 3.421% to $15.42, NOV Inc. down 7.38% to $15.06, MODERNA Inc. down 4.21% to $212.04, SEAGEN Inc. down 1.134% at $156.88.

Economic news:

US: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday warned Congress that the United States risks a debt default and a new financial crisis as soon as the August recess if lawmakers fail to act quickly to suspend or raise the federal borrowing limit.

In testimony to a Senate Appropriations subcommittee, Yellen said defaulting on U.S. debt obligations would be “unthinkable” and “would have absolutely catastrophic economic consequences.”

Yellen said that to avoid uncertainty for financial markets, Congress should pass new debt limit legislation – allowing the Treasury to continue borrowing – before the latest suspension expires on July 31.

An unprecedented default on U.S. government debt obligations “would precipitate a financial crisis, it would threaten the jobs and savings of Americans at a time when we’re still recovering from the COVID pandemic,” Yellen said.

“I would plead with Congress to simply protect the full faith and credit of the United States by acting to raise or suspend the debt limit as soon as possible.”

Eurozone: The Bank of England will say on Thursday whether it is worried about a recent jump in inflation, which broke above the central bank’s 2% target and looks set to climb higher as Britain reawakens its economy from its coronavirus slumber.

With global policymakers grappling with economic overheating risks against the backdrop of huge stimulus programmes, Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE officials have mostly said Britain’s faster price growth is likely to prove transitory.

But last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve began to move towards reducing its pandemic stimulus by signalling its first-rate hike in 2023, a year earlier than previous projections, putting the focus on what other central banks might now do.

The BoE is expected to leave its benchmark rate at an all-time low of 0.1% and press on with its 895 billion-pound ($1.25 trillion) bond-buying programme when it announces its June policy decision at 1100 GMT.

But investors are watching to see if any other Monetary Policy Committee members join Chief Economist Andy Haldane who is likely to vote again to scale back the bond-buying programme at his final meeting before leaving the BoE.

Important Data: German Business Expectations (Jun) today at 4:00 this time estimated 103.9, previously which was 102.9. UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun) today at 7:00 this time estimated 0.10%, previously which was 0.10%. US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) today at 8:30 this time estimated 0.8%, previously which was 1.0%. US GDP (QoQ) (Q1) today at 8:30 this time estimated 6.4%, previously which was 4.3%.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
GBPUSD Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.39563, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.39204 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.4000

EURUSD

EURUSD Technical Analysis
EURUSD Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.19338, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19041 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.19614

USDJPY

USDJPY Technical Analysis
USDJPY Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 110.857, TAKE PROFIT AT 110.997 AND STOP LOSS AT 110.758

USDCHF

USDCHF Technical Analysis
USDCHF Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 0.91830, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.92116 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.91646

DAX 30

DAX 30 Technical Analysis
DAX 30 Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 15535.0 TAKE PROFIT AT 15402.6 AND STOP LOSS AT 15606.4

WTI CRUDE OIL

WTI CRUDE OIL Technical Analysis
WTI CRUDE OIL Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 73.37 TAKE PROFIT AT 73.53 AND STOP LOSS AT 73.28

GOLD

GOLD Technical Analysis
GOLD Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1775.99, TAKE PROFIT AT 1768.84 AND STOP AT 1783.33

BTCUSD

BTCUSD Technical Analysis
BTCUSD Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 33130.35 TAKE PROFIT AT 32177.78 AND STOP AT 34194.48

 

 

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Asian shares rose on Friday. The Shanghai composite is up 1.07% at 3,604.82. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.14% at 354.70. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 1.24% to 29,191. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 0.73% at 29,020, while the Topix index is up 0.72% at 1956.5. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.48% to 3301.52. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.50% at 7311.8.

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.86% up at 15589.23, CAC 40 futures up 1.22% at 6631.16 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.51% at 7,109.96.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.95% at 34196.83. The S&P 500 up 0.58% to 4266.48 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.05% at 14381.5, NYSE closes at 16558.62 up 0.74%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.12% at 1.39295. The USDJPY down 0.01% at 110.835. The USDCHF down 0.01% at 0.91766. EURUSD up 0.08% at 1.19404, EUR/GBP up 0.12% at 0.85722. The USD/CNY down 0.21% at 6.4581, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures up 0.29% at $1,780.44. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.90% to $26.137 per ounce, Platinum up 0.25% at $1099.7 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.40% to $2,656.00.

Crude Oil up on Friday; Brent crude oil up 0.30% to $75.76 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.01% at $70.60.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 34551.77 down 0.28%, Ethereum at 1969.34 down 1.02%, Litecoin at 134.47 down 0.01%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

TESLA Inc. up 3.541% at $679.82, DISCOVERY Inc. up 3.021% at $28.65, BOEING Co. up 2.874% to $250.57, DOLLAR TREE Inc. down 2.118% to $99.34, BAIDU Inc. up 2.96% to $194.77, INTEL Corp. up 1.466% at $56.07.

Economic news:

US: Hours after President Joe Biden declared “We have a deal” to renew the infrastructure of the United States, the Senate’s top Republican lashed out at plans to follow the $1.2 trillion bipartisan bill with another measure funding what Democrats call “human infrastructure.”

Biden and top congressional Democrats – House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer – had long signaled their plan to link the bipartisan deal with another bill including spending on home health care and child care.

The second measure would be passed through a Senate maneuver called reconciliation https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senates-reconciliation-process-its-not-way-it-sounds-2021-06-16, which would allow it to take effect without Republican votes.

Biden told reporters at the White House that he expected quick action on both measures – or neither would survive.

“I expect that in the coming months this summer, before the fiscal year is over, that we will have voted on this (bipartisan) bill – the infrastructure bill – as well as voted on the budget resolution,” he said. “But if only one comes to me, I’m not signing it. It’s in tandem.”

Eurozone: European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel pledged that she and her colleagues will do everything needed to sustain the economic recovery, and warned governments not to undermine that by tightening fiscal policy too soon.

“The worst thing that can happen is that the support is ended prematurely. I can assure you that on the monetary-policy side, we’ll do everything to avoid that,” Schnabel said in an online event on Thursday.

“Maybe we should be worried more about fiscal policy,” she added, saying that in some countries “there’s already a debate ongoing about consolidation of public finances which may actually come a bit too early.”

Tensions were on display this week when Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, a former ECB president, insisted euro-area fiscal rules can’t return to how they were before the pandemic.

The directly contradicts Armin Laschet, the front-runner to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor, who said last week that stability policies will have to be reinstated when the effects of the pandemic on the global economy are over. Austrian Finance Minister Gernot Bluemel has made a similar case.

Important Data: US Personal Spending (MoM) (May) today at 8:30 this time estimated 0.4%, previously which was 0.5%. GfK German Consumer Climate (Jul) today at 7:00 this time estimated -4.0, previously which was -6.9. EURO ZONE Private Sector Loans (YoY) today at 4:00 previously which was 3.8%. US PCE price index (MoM) (May) today at 8:30 previously which was 0.6%.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.39236, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.38852 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.39453

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.19431, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19215 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.19850

EURGBP

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 0.85750, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.85627 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.85896

EURJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 132.335, TAKE PROFIT AT 132.001 AND STOP LOSS AT 132.591

FTSE 100

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 7122.9 TAKE PROFIT AT 7147.0 AND STOP LOSS AT 7096.3

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 73.32 TAKE PROFIT AT 73.44 AND STOP LOSS AT 73.29

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1779.49, TAKE PROFIT AT 1771.79 AND STOP AT 1789.78

LITECOIN

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 133.49 TAKE PROFIT AT 127.78 AND STOP AT 137.85

 

 

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Asian shares started the week in a cautious mood on Monday. The Shanghai composite is down 0.14% at 3,602.08. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.54% at 356.60. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 0.28% to 28,960. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 down 0.28% at 28,960, while the Topix index is up 0.05% at 1959.5. South Korea’s Kospi down 0.03% to 3301.77. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.01% at 7307.3.

European equities Friday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.12% up at 15607.97, CAC 40 futures down 0.12% at 6622.88 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.37% at 7,136.08.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.69% at 34433.85. The S&P 500 up 0.33% to 4280.69 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.15% at 14369.0, NYSE closes at 16658.62 up 0.60%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.25% at 1.39049. The USDJPY down 0.08% at 110.688. The USDCHF up 0.16% at 0.91817. EURUSD down 0.04% at 1.19297, EUR/GBP down 0.18% at 0.85793. The USD/CNY up 0.05% at 6.4576, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures up 0.11% at $1,782.47. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.13% to $26.090 per ounce, Platinum down 0.32% at $1107.47 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.34% to $2,650.00.

Crude Oil up on Monday; Brent crude oil up 0.08% to $76.18 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 4.89% at $74.05.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 34442.38 down 0.74%, Ethereum at 1980.44 down 0.14%, Litecoin at 131.40 down 0.84%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

NIKE Inc. up 15.531% at $154.35, CARMAX Inc. up 6.673% at $127.4, TELEFLEX Inc. up 2.842% to $412.21, FEDEX Corp. down 3.628% to $291.95, EBAY Inc. up 1.998% to $67.90, BAIDU Inc. up 4.041% at $202.64.

Economic news:

US: Republican Senate negotiators on an infrastructure deal were optimistic about a $1.2 trillion bipartisan bill on Sunday after President Joe Biden withdrew his threat to veto the measure unless a separate Democratic spending plan also passes Congress.

U.S. Senator Rob Portman said he and his fellow negotiators were “blindsided” by Biden’s comments on Thursday after a rare bipartisan compromise to fix the nation’s roads, bridges and ports.

“I was very glad to see the president clarify his remarks because it was inconsistent with everything that we had been told all along the way,” Portman said in an interview with ABC.

Moments after announcing the bipartisan deal on Thursday, Biden appeared to put it in jeopardy with his comment that the infrastructure bill would have to move “in tandem” with a larger bill that includes a host of Democratic priorities that he hopes to pass along party lines.

Eurozone: Britain has yet to receive a formal response from the European Union over its proposal to further extend a grace period on checks on some foodstuffs moving to Northern Ireland just days before the latest deadline, a minister said on Sunday.

“We think we have put forward a sensible proposal, something actually quite moderate while we work out a long-term solution and I am hopeful over the next few days that those technical discussions, we’ll be able to get that secured with the EU,” Northern Ireland minister Brandon Lewis told Times Radio.

“We’re coming very close up against the deadline now and we’ve not yet formally heard back from the EU. They need to come back to us. I am hopeful they will come back in a positive way.”

The current grace period waiving checks on British-made sausages and other chilled meats moving to Northern Ireland is due to end on June 30.

Important Data: JAPAN Retail Sales (YoY) (May) today at 19:50 this time estimated 7.9%, previously which was 11.9%. JAPAN Jobs/applications ratio (May) today at 19:30 this time estimated 1.08, previously which was 1.09. UK BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks today at 8:00. US FOMC Member Quarles Speaks today at 13:10.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.39240, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.38730 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.39473

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.19386, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19141 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.19504

USDJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 110.643, TAKE PROFIT AT 110.859 AND STOP LOSS AT 110.457

USDCHF

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 0.91779, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.92003 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.91652

S&P 500

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 4283.69 TAKE PROFIT AT 4286.94 AND STOP LOSS AT 4280.90

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 73.88 TAKE PROFIT AT 74.13 AND STOP LOSS AT 73.83

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1782.59, TAKE PROFIT AT 1776.03 AND STOP AT 1789.28

ETHEREUM

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 2042.64 TAKE PROFIT AT 2017.30 AND STOP AT 2056.58

 

 

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Asian shares dropped on Tuesday. The Shanghai composite is down 0.80% at 3,577.53. Overall, the Singapore MSCI down 1.42% at 351.00. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 1.03% to 28,924. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 down 0.62% at 28,780, while the Topix index is down 0.56% at 1947.0. South Korea’s Kospi down 0.49% to 3285.63. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.12% at 7298.8.

European equities Monday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.34% down at 15542.17, CAC 40 futures down 0.98% at 6558.03 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.04% at 7,074.00.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.44% at 34283.28. The S&P 500 up 0.23% to 4290.62 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.16% at 14495.2, NYSE closes at 16573.72 down 0.51%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD down 0.03% at 1.38721. The USDJPY up 0.01% at 110.606. The USDCHF up 0.09% at 0.91992. EURUSD down 0.04% at 1.19167, EUR/GBP up 0.07% at 0.85914. The USD/CNY up 0.06% at 6.4597, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures down 0.08% at $1,776.65. Elsewhere, Silver futures down 0.01% to $26.048 per ounce, Platinum down 0.11% at $1089.74 per ounce, and Palladium down 0.43% to $2,678.50.

Crude Oil down on Tuesday; Brent crude oil down 0.13% to $74.48 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is down 1.74% at $72.76.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 34880.79 up 1.14%, Ethereum at 2123.12 up 1.95%, Litecoin at 139.67 up 1.74%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

ETSY Inc. up 7.365% at $198.41, NVIDIA Corp. up 5.013% at $799.4, FACEBOOK up 4.18% to $355.64, INTEL Corp. up 2.808% to $57.48, CARNIVAL Corp. down 7.039% to $26.15, NOV Inc. down 6.003% at $14.72.

Economic news:

US: Two Federal Reserve officials on Monday expressed strong skepticism about the need for the central bank to issue a digital currency, saying that many dollar transactions are already virtual and some of the potential benefits of an official digital currency may be accomplished through other means.

The remarks, made at two separate events on Monday afternoon, suggest policymakers could face intense discussions as they explore the potential benefits, costs and logistics of creating a central bank digital currency, or CBDC.

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles said any proposals to create a U.S. CBDC must clear a “high bar,” and that he needs to be convinced the potential benefits would outweigh the risks.

“Before we get carried away with the novelty, I think we need to subject the promises of a CBDC to a careful critical analysis,” Quarles said in remarks delivered in person during the annual Utah Bankers Association Convention.

The Fed official said the U.S. dollar is already “highly digitized” and expressed scepticism that a CBDC would help to improve financial inclusion or lower financial costs. Some of those issues may be better addressed with other solutions, such as improving access to low-cost bank accounts, Quarles said.

Eurozone: Banks in the euro zone are already recording a drop in credit quality and this trend is likely to accelerate once government support measures are removed, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday.

“There are already some early signs of weakening credit quality, for example the share of loans reported as subject to heightened credit risk has risen significantly and asset quality is likely to deteriorate once support measures are phased out,” de Guindos said in a speech.

“The deterioration is most visible in sectors that were hit harder by the pandemic, such as services, while loan performance problems are less prevalent in manufacturing,” he added.

Important Data: AUSTRALIA Private Sector Credit (MoM) (May) today at 21:30 previously which was 0.2%. CHINA Manufacturing PMI (Jun) today at 21:00 this time estimated 50.8, previously which was 51.00. JAPAN Industrial Production (MoM) (May) today at 19:50 this time estimated -2.4%, previously which was 2.9%. US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock today at 16:30 previously which was -7.199M.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.38670, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.38483 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.38906

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.19157, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.18967 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.19293

EURGBP

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 0.8595, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.86116 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.85779

EURJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 131.816, TAKE PROFIT AT 131.539 AND STOP LOSS AT 131.999

DJ EURO STOXX 50

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 4093.00 TAKE PROFIT AT 4072.00 AND STOP LOSS AT 4112.00

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 72.93 TAKE PROFIT AT 73.30 AND STOP LOSS AT 72.40

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGES TION- SELL AT 1773.68, TAKE PROFIT AT 1769.26 AND STOP AT 1782.58

RIPPLE

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 0.6690 TAKE PROFIT AT 0.6504 AND STOP AT 0.6884

 

 

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Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up Wednesday morning. The Shanghai composite is up 0.25% at 3,582.82. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 1.60% at 356.70. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 0.14% to 28,805. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 0.17% at 28,810, while the Topix index is down 0.05% at 1944.0. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.40% to 3299.99. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.43% at 7332.2.

European equities Tuesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.88% up at 15690.59, CAC 40 futures up 0.14% at 6567.44 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.04% at 7,074.60.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.03% at 34292.30. The S&P 500 up 0.03% to 4291.81 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.07% at 14486.5, NYSE closes at 16547.57 down 0.16%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.11% at 1.38455. The USDJPY down 0.02% at 110.457. The USDCHF up 0.12% at 0.92173. EURUSD up 0.02% at 1.18964, EUR/GBP up 0.01% at 0.85937. The USD/CNY down 0.09% at 6.4574, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures down 0.20% at $1,757.20. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.06% to $25.759 per ounce, Platinum down 0.47% at $1064.46 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.15% to $2,686.00.

Crude Oil mix on Wednesday; Brent crude oil down 0.25% to $74.44 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.12% at $72.85.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 35022.51 down 2.47%, Ethereum at 2134.61 down 1.31%, Litecoin at 142.28 down 1.23%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

MORGAN STANLEY up 3.352% at $90.64, NIKE Inc. up 2.356% at $155.95, ETSY Inc. up 2.077% to $202.53, CITI GROUP Inc. down 2.559% to $69.68, INTEL Inc. down 1.27% to $56.75, TESLA Inc. down 1.156% at $680.76.

Economic news:

US: U.S. free-trade agreements reached over the past 3 1/2 decades have had a “small but positive” effect on the world’s biggest economy, a report by a bipartisan federal agency analysing trade issues showed.

Trade pacts concluded since 1984 raised gross domestic product by $88.8 billion, or 0.5%, and added 485,000 full-time equivalent jobs, the International Trade Commission said in a 390-page report released Tuesday. Job gains weren’t evenly distributed, with the biggest improvements seen for college-educated males, it said.

While free-trade agreements “help level the playing field when other markets are less open than those of the U.S.,” critics say the deals “often serve the interests of multinational corporations at the expense of American workers — for example, by promoting trade liberalization and investor protections while failing to adequately protect worker rights and the environment,” the commission said.

The Biden administration has promised its trade policy will focus on workers and the middle class as the nation recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic.

The study examined the economic effects only of trade agreements for which Congress enacted implementing bills, including those under so-called Fast-Track Authority before 2002 and those made under Trade Promotion Authority since that year.

Eurozone: European airline passenger rights, which include carriers’ legal obligation to pay refunds for cancelled flights, have not been safeguarded during the COVID-19 pandemic, an EU report released on Tuesday said.

The European Court of Auditors (ECA) found that in virtually all cases airlines were able to sidestep rules requiring a cash refund for cancelled flights and offer customers vouchers for future journeys instead.

The ECA, which looks after the interests of taxpayers in the 27-member European Union but does not have legal powers, said travel restrictions led to 7,000 air routes being closed in the European airport network after the pandemic began last year.

Flight cancellations affected tens of millions of passengers across the bloc between March 2020 and March 2021, the ECA said.

EU law grants consumers immediate cash refunds for cancelled flights, plus compensation for those scrapped with less than two weeks’ notice or for delays of over three hours.

Important Data: German Unemployment Change (Jun) today at 3:55 this time estimated -20K, previously which was -15K. EURO ZONE CPI (YoY) (Jun) today at 5:00 this time estimated 1.9%, previously which was 2.00%. CANADA GDP (MoM) (Apr) today at 8:30 this time estimated -0.8%, previously which was 1.1%. US Crude Oil Inventories today at 10:30 this time estimated -4.686M, previously which was -7.614M.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.38438, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.38300 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.38551

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.18962, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.18731 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.19161

GBPJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 152.994, TAKE PROFIT AT 152.754 AND STOP LOSS AT 153.366

CHFJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 119.934, TAKE PROFIT AT 119.784 AND STOP LOSS AT 120.178

NASDAQ 100

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 14575.49 TAKE PROFIT AT 14583.67 AND STOP LOSS AT 14570.81

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 73.35 TAKE PROFIT AT 73.60 AND STOP LOSS AT 73.23

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1758.38, TAKE PROFIT AT 1755.12 AND STOP AT 1763.86

BTCUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 34979.95 TAKE PROFIT AT 33750.57 AND STOP AT 35582.14

 

 

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Chinese shares dropped on Friday. The Shanghai composite is down 0.07% at 3,588.78. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.10% at 355.55. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 1.67% at 28,151. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 0.42% at 28,750, while the Topix index is up 0.90% at 1952.0. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.01% to 3282.54. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.51% at 7302.5.

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.47% up at 15603.81, CAC 40 futures up 0.71% at 6553.83 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 1.25% at 7,125.17.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.38% at 34633.54. The S&P 500 up 0.52% to 4319.93 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.14% at 14533.3, NYSE closes at 16640.95 up 0.52%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.06% at 1.37647. The USDJPY up 0.06% at 111.583. The USDCHF up 0.10% at 0.92618. EURUSD down 0.06% at 1.18415, EUR/GBP up 0.03% at 0.86019. The USD/CNY up 0.17% at 6.4802, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures up 0.12% at $1,778.15. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.08% to $26.032 per ounce, Platinum up 0.57% at $1089.61 per ounce, and Palladium down 0.04% to $2,764.50.

Crude Oil up on Friday; Brent crude oil up 0.09% at $75.64 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 2.03% at $74.82.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 32858.58 down 2.10%, Ethereum at 2029.71 down 3.70%, Litecoin at 131.43 down 4.12%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

VIATRIS Inc. up 3.219% at $14.75, KLA Corp. down 3.846% at $311.74, ETSY Inc. down 3.075% to $199.51, FACEBOOK up 1.921% to $354.39, FINSERV Inc. up 1.357% to $108.34, AMGEN Inc. up 1.292% at $246.9.

Economic news:

US: The Congressional Budget Office on Thursday doubled its forecast for U.S. economic growth in fiscal 2021 to 7.4% and said it expected the federal budget deficit to decline slightly to about $3 trillion despite higher coronavirus aid spending.

The upbeat forecast from the non-partisan CBO was mirrored by a sharply higher forecast for U.S. economic output from the International Monetary Fund, which raised its projection for U.S. gross domestic product growth to 7% from 6.4%.

The White House welcomed both of the rosy projections – along with others in recent weeks from the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Federal Reserve – as evidence that President Joe Biden’s plans to jumpstart the U.S. economy were working.

“Growth projections are up, deficit projections are down and unemployment will continue to decrease. Biden’s economy is booming,” a White House official said, adding that the newest forecasts also saw the current bump in consumer prices as temporary.

Eurozone: Britain’s finance minister pledged on Thursday to “sharpen” the competitive advantage of the UK financial services sector as he set out his vision for its future after the City of London lost business to the bloc after Brexit.

In his first Mansion House speech, traditionally an annual address given by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the City of London financial district, Rishi Sunak said Britain’s departure from the European Union was a unique opportunity to tailor rules while maintaining high regulatory standards and open markets.

Brexit has largely severed the City’s ties with investors in the EU, triggering a shift in over 7,500 financial jobs from London to new hubs in the bloc, with Amsterdam leapfrogging London to become Europe’s biggest share trading centre.

Last year the finance ministry rolled out reviews to listings rules, fintech and insurance capital rules, and on Thursday it announced there would be further public consultations on financial reforms.

Important Data: US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jun) today at 8:35 this time estimated 3.7%, previously which was 2.0%. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) today at 8:30 this time estimated 700K, previously which was 559K. CANADA Building Permits (MoM) (May) today at 8:30 this time estimated -0.3%, previously which was -0.5%. EURO ZONE ECB President Lagarde Speaks today at 8:30.  

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.37525, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.37197 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.37864

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.18333, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.18087 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18610

USDJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 111.577, TAKE PROFIT AT 111.619 AND STOP LOSS AT 111.526

USDCHF

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 0.92608, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.92642 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.92584

FTSE 100

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 7139.60 TAKE PROFIT AT 7169.50 AND STOP LOSS AT 7118.60

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 75.07 TAKE PROFIT AT 75.22 AND STOP LOSS AT 74.96

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1776.18, TAKE PROFIT AT 1783.84 AND STOP AT 1771.65

ETHEREUM

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 2032.56 TAKE PROFIT AT 1931.15 AND STOP AT 2139.13

 

 

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Asia Pacific stocks are down Friday morning as concerns continue to mount about the spread of COVID-19 variants. The Shanghai composite is down 0.17% at 3,518.93. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.77% at 353.45. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 0.95% at 27,359. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 down 1.17% at 27,830, while the Topix index is down 0.94% at 1903.0. South Korea’s Kospi down 1.18% to 3212.70. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.42% at 7237.5.

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 1.73% down at 15420.64, CAC 40 futures down 2.01% at 6396.74 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.10% at 7,031.7.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.75% at 34421.94. The S&P 500 up 0.86% to 4320.83 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.13% at 14707.3, NYSE closes at 16359.69 down 1.21%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD down 0.03% at 1.37668. The USDJPY up 0.22% at 109.99. The USDCHF up 0.11% at 0.91586. EURUSD down 0.06% at 1.18354, EUR/GBP up 0.03% at 0.859. The USD/CNY down 0.05% at 6.4864, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures flat at $1,802.15. Elsewhere, Silver futures down 0.26% to $25.857 per ounce, Platinum down 0.26% at $1074.59 per ounce, and Palladium down 0.25% to $2,793.50.

Crude Oil mix on Friday; Brent crude oil down 0.27% at $74.16 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.63% at $73.13.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 33032.71 up 0.41%, Ethereum at 2140.86 up 1.17%, Litecoin at 131.64 down 0.42%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

BIOGEN Inc. up 3.861% at $369.05, BOEING Co. up 2.153% at $236.77, ETSY Inc. up 1.617% to $196.02, CSX Corp. down 6.155% to $30.95, METLIFE Inc. down 3.654% to $56.69, EBAY Inc. down 2.027% at $68.65.

Economic news:

US: Low vaccination rates in some regions of the world pose a threat to the United States and global growth, Federal Reserve’s Mary Daly told the Financial Times, adding that the central bank was fully committed to eliminating shortfalls in employment.

Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said it was important for the rest of the world to reach higher rates of vaccination, and the inability to achieve that would be a “headwind” on U.S. economic growth.

“I think one of the biggest risks to our global growth, going forward, is that we prematurely declare victory on COVID-19,” Daly said in the interview published on Friday.

In the minutes of the central bank’s June policy meeting released on Wednesday, “various participants” felt conditions for reducing asset purchases would be “met somewhat earlier than they had anticipated.”

Eurozone: The European Central Bank took a step in the Federal Reserve’s direction with its new inflation target of 2%, while stopping short of a similar commitment to let the economy run hot after a recovery.

In announcing the results of its own long-running strategy review on Thursday, officials in Frankfurt said their new simpler approach “may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target.” That contrasts with an explicit commitment from their U.S. counterparts to aim for a rate above its target after a period of weakness.

“Are we doing average inflation targeting like the Fed? The answer is no, very squarely,” ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a news briefing. “There are multiple ways to deal with the effective lower bound,” she said, referring to interest rates that are so low that central banks risk running out of ammunition.

The Fed last year decided to pursue an “average” 2% target, meaning it will let inflation overshoot during an economic upswing to make up for past shortfalls. The ECB decided to move away from its old goal of “below, but close to, 2%,” which was seen as vague and was drafted at a time when excessive price pressure was the main concern, not the opposite, as has been the case in the euro area in recent years.

Important Data: CANADA Employment Change (Jun) today at 8:30 this time estimated 195K, previously which was -68K. CANADA Unemployment Rate (Jun) today at 8:30 this time estimated 7.7%, previously which was 8.2%. UK Trade Balance Non-EU (May) today at 2:00 previously which was -5.55B. US Fed Monetary Policy Report today at 19:50.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.3767, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.37462 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.3792

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.18254, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.18031 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18324

GBPJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 151.518, TAKE PROFIT AT 151.347 AND STOP LOSS AT 151.623

CHFJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 120.034, TAKE PROFIT AT 119.775 AND STOP LOSS AT 120.384

DAX 30

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 15488.5 TAKE PROFIT AT 15400.4 AND STOP LOSS AT 15541.5

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 73.23 TAKE PROFIT AT 72.73 AND STOP LOSS AT 73.76

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1797.78, TAKE PROFIT AT 1807.78 AND STOP AT 1794.18

ETHEREUM

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 2117.98 TAKE PROFIT AT 2034.79 AND STOP AT 2232.51

 

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Construction PMI (Jun), U.K.

    WHEN:                                               WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

6th JULY 2021                                           GBP and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Construction Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the construction industry. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the construction industry; a reading below indicates contraction.

GBPCAD was trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen in the coming days.

     Initial Jobless Claims, U.S.

     WHEN:                                              WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

     8th JULY 2021                                           USD and its subsequent pairs

WHAT HAPPENED: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

USDMXN is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen in the coming days.

Employment Change (Jun), CANADA  

WHEN:                                              WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

9th JULY 2021                                           CAD and its subsequent pairs 

WHAT HAPPENED: Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

USDMXN is trading in the down channel, further downside can be seen in the coming days.

Gold Has 3rd Weekly Gain With $1,800 Return

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

GOLD 

WHAT HAPPENED: Gold posted a third straight weekly gain on Friday, returning to crucial $1,800 support. But outlook for the yellow metal’s fans remained muddy, with no certainty on how long it will take for the much-touted U.S. inflation to accelerate its gains.

Front-month gold futures on New York’s Comex settled at $1,810.60, up $10.40, or 1.5% on the day.

The benchmark gold futures have gained around $40, or 2.3%, since its last negative weekly close four weeks ago, when it also tumbled to a two-month low of $1,761.20.

Gold’s rise on Friday was fuelled by a weaker dollar. Both the U.S. currency and yields work in contrary mode to the precious metal.

GOLD is trading in the parallel channel; further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.

Oil Has First Weekly Loss in Seven as OPEC Worry Tempers Bull Market 

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

CRUDE OIL

WHAT HAPPENED: 

Crude prices posted their first weekly loss since mid-May as worries about trouble within OPEC tempered the bull market for oil.

The loss was a tiny red bleep after six straight weeks of gains and looked small enough — just 6% on the week — for longs in the market to shrug off. 

But the broader troubles within the 13-member Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its 10 oil producing allies led by Russia were large enough to remain on their minds.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude, the benchmark for U.S. oil, settled Friday’s trade up $1.62, or 2.2%, at $74.56 a barrel. 

London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled Friday’s trade up $1.43, or 1.9%, at $75.55. For the week though, Brent lost 0.8%.

WTI CRUDE OIL is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

     UK places crypto advertisements under “Red Alert”

WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:

BITCOIN

WHAT HAPPENED: Moving forward, the United Kingdom Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) will scrutinize all marketing related to cryptocurrencies, especially on social media.

Amid the U.K.’s seemingly harder stance on crypto regulations stance on the cryptocurrency business, authorities are planning to launch an effort this month to hunt and shut down deceptive crypto adverts.

ASA, the U.K. advertising industry’s watchdog, is spearheading efforts to regulate cryptocurrency ads. According to a report by the Financial Times, Miles Lockwood, ASA’s director of complaints, said the authority would particularly target irresponsible crypto ads being spread online and on social media platforms. He added:

Most crypto investments fall outside the scope of the UK’s strict rules for promoting traditional financial products, which are supervised by the Financial Conduct Authority. ASA is increasing its capacity to track bogus crypto ads using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and scraping.

Defaulting companies will be issued warnings and may be required to add disclaimers to their advertisements. Already a Bitcoin poster sponsored by cryptocurrency exchange Luno was taken down by ASA in May.

BTCUSD is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.

5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT

     CPI (YoY) (Jun), U.K.

 WHEN:                                                              WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

 14th JULY 2021                                                   GBP and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

      Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun), U.S.

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

16th JULY 2021                                                       USD and its subsequent 

                                                                              pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    BoC Interest Rate Decision, CANADA

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

14th JULY 2021                                                    CAD and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. 

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Employment Change (Jun), AUSTRALIA 

WHEN:                                                                WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

14th JULY 2021                                                     AUD and its subsequent 

                                                                              Pairs 

WHAT’S HAPPENING:  Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending. 

A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

GDP (YoY) (Q2), CHINA

WHEN:                                                               WHAT IT INFLUENCES:

14th JULY 2021                                                    CNY and its subsequent 

                                                                             pairs

WHAT’S HAPPENING: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

 A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

1. JPMorgan (JPM) to announce its Quarterly Results on 13th JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 3.09 per share while revenue estimated 29.95B. 

2. PepsiCo (PEP) to announce its Quarterly Results on 13th JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 1.52 per share while revenue estimated 17.94B.

3. Goldman Sachs (GS) to announce its Quarterly Results on 13th JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 9.41 per share while revenue estimated 11.89B.

4. Bank of America (BAC) to announce its Quarterly Results on 14th JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 0.7737 per share while revenue estimated 21.91B.

5. Morgan Stanley (MS) to announce its Quarterly Results on 15th JULY 2021, EPS estimated to 1.66 per share while revenue estimated 13.98B.

TOP COMMODITIES IN THE COMING WEEK

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD is trading in the parallel channel; further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa. 

SILVER

Technical Analysis

SILVER is trading in the parallel channel; further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa. 

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis

WTI CRUDE OIL is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

TOP CRYPTO IN THE COMING WEEK

BTCUSD

Technical Analysis

BTCUSD is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.

ETHEREUM

Technical Analysis

ETHEREUM is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.

    TOP CURRENCY IN THE COMING WEEK

EURUSD 

Technical Analysis

EURUSD is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.

GBPJPY

Technical Analysis

GBPJPY is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.

TOP INDEX IN THE COMING WEEK

FTSE 100

Technical Analysis

FTSE 100 is currently in the up channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

HANG SENG

Technical Analysis

HANG SENG is currently in the down channel. Further downside can be seen in the coming week.

NASDAQ 100

Technical Analysis

NASDAQ 100 is currently in an up channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.

DATA WATCH

Technical Analysis

 

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Asian shares fell on Wednesday after data showing the biggest jump in U.S. inflation in 13 years. The Shanghai composite is down 0.55% at 3,547.12. Overall, the Singapore MSCI down 0.30% at 360.60. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 0.22% at 27,819. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 down 0.10% at 28,620, while the Topix index is up 0.08% at 1965.5. South Korea’s Kospi down 0.22% to 3264.05. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.40% at 7361.2.

European equities Tuesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.01% down at 15789.64, CAC 40 futures down 0.01% at 6558.48 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.01% at 7,124.73.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.31% at 34888.80. The S&P 500 down 0.35% to 4369.20 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.06% at 14870.6, NYSE closes at 16575.77 down 0.58%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.16% at 1.38245. The USDJPY down 0.10% at 110.511. The USDCHF down 0.05% at 0.91802. EURUSD up 0.10% at 1.17879, EUR/GBP down 0.04% at 0.85202. The USD/CNY up 0.05% at 6.4719, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures up 0.28% at $1,813.27. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.45% to $26.08 per ounce, Platinum up 0.41% at $1112.03 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.12% to $2,831.87.

Crude Oil up on Wednesday; Brent crude oil up 0.05% at $76.37 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.75% at $74.32.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 31864.36 down 2.58%, Ethereum at 1880.67 down 3.07%, Litecoin at 125.20 down 4.38%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

PEPSI Co. Inc. up 2.308% at $152.96, MASTERCARD Inc. up 2.17% at $383.71, BOEING Inc. down 4.234% to $228.20, CARNIVAL Corp. down 4.233% to $22.85, HP Inc. down 3.492% to $28.19, TESLA Inc. down 2.503% at $668.54.

Economic news:

US: U.S. President Joe Biden’s drive for big new infrastructure investment got a boost on Tuesday when leading Senate Democrats agreed on a $3.5 trillion investment plan, they aim to include in a budget resolution to be debated soon, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.

“We have come to an agreement,” Schumer told reporters after more than two hours of closed-door talks that included Senate Budget Committee Democrats and White House officials. Republicans have not been part of these negotiations.

“You add that to the $600 billion in a bipartisan plan and you get to $4.1 trillion, which is very, very close to what President Biden has asked us for,” Schumer said.

Schumer was referring to work being done on a separate, bipartisan infrastructure bill totalling $1.2 trillion, of which nearly $600 billion would be new spending. This bill would finance the rebuilding of roads, bridges and other traditional infrastructure, as well as expand broadband internet service to many rural parts of the United States.

Democratic and Republican negotiators on the bipartisan measure also reported progress late in the day.

Eurozone: The European Central Bank is set to give the green light on Wednesday to a multi-year project to create a digital version of the euro.

An electronic equivalent of banknotes and coins, the digital euro will likely be a digital wallet that euro zone citizens can keep at the ECB.

It is part of a drive by central banks to meet growing demand for electronic means of payment and tackle a boom in private sector digital currencies from Bitcoin to Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)’s proposed Diem.

WHAT IS A DIGITAL EURO?

It will be a means of payment that gives holders a claim against the ECB – like banknotes and coins, but in digital format.

It will probably resemble an online bank account or digital wallet held directly at the ECB rather than at a commercial institution.

This is a fundamental difference because the ECB cannot run out of euros, making its digital currency intrinsically safer than any private sector counterpart.

Important Data: EURO ZONE Industrial Production (MoM) (May) today at 5:00 this time estimated -0.2%, previously which was 0.8%. US PPI (MoM) (Jun) today at 8:30 this time estimated 0.6%, previously which was 0.8%. CANADA  BoC Interest Rate Decision today at 10:00 this time estimated 0.25%, previously which was 0.25%. AUSTRALIA Employment Change (Jun) today at 21:30 this time estimated 30.0K, previously which was 115.2K.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.38428, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.38109 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.38930

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.179, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.17694 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18017

GBPJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 152.881, TAKE PROFIT AT 152.555 AND STOP LOSS AT 153.137

CHFJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 120.250, TAKE PROFIT AT 120.010 AND STOP LOSS AT 120.569

NASDAQ 100

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 14864.24 TAKE PROFIT AT 14884.50 AND STOP LOSS AT 14839.4

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 75.04 TAKE PROFIT AT 75.32 AND STOP LOSS AT 74.84

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1811.45, TAKE PROFIT AT 1816.08 AND STOP AT 1808.93

BTCUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 31879.74 TAKE PROFIT AT 31013.95 AND STOP AT 32587.31

 

 

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Asian share markets were in a mixed mood on Friday. The Shanghai composite is down 0.73% at 3,548.59. Overall, the Singapore MSCI down 0.36% at 360.45. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 1.07% at 27,410. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 flat at 27,910, while the Topix index is flat at 1935.5. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.13% to 3254.50. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.01% at 7385.3.

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 0.60% at 15514.54, CAC 40 futures up 0.26% at 6481.60 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.15% at 6,978.20.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.07% at 34823.36. The S&P 500 up 0.20% to 4367.49 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.05% at 14981.5, NYSE closes at 16455.91 down 0.29%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD down 0.01% at 1.37659. The USDJPY up 0.13% at 110.26. The USDCHF up 0.12% at 0.91989. EURUSD flat at 1.17701, EUR/GBP up 0.02% at 0.85499. The USD/CNY up 0.02% at 6.4716, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures down 0.12% at $1,804.45. Elsewhere, Silver futures down 0.15% to $25.363 per ounce, Platinum flat at $1093.53 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.30% to $2,728.00.

Crude Oil mix on Friday; Brent crude oil down 0.15% at $73.52 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.24% at $72.36.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 32300.00 up 3.39%, Ethereum at 2076.91 up 2.66%, Litecoin at 121.20 up 0.43%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

Domino’s Pizza Inc. up 14.552% at $538.82, CSX Corp. up 3.48% at $32.67,

ETSY Inc. up 3.09% to $201.85, Adobe Inc. up 1.865% to $623.68,

eBay Inc. up 3.149% to $72.06, Texas Instruments Inc. down 5.318% at $183.91.

Economic news:

US: The Biden administration on Thursday released $3 billion in COVID-19 rescue funds aimed at helping localities bolster their economies in the wake of the pandemic, calling on communities to seek funding for a range of revitalization projects.

The funding, authorized by the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, is part of President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” agenda to rebuild the nation after the novel coronavirus triggered widespread shutdowns and led to more than 600,000 U.S. deaths so far. The Democrat-backed bill was passed in March.

New funding will be available to communities nationwide through six programs run through the Department of Commerce targeting jobs, for instance, in tourism, the agency said in a statement.

“This investment will ensure that they have the resources to recover from the pandemic and will help create new jobs and opportunities, including through the development or expansion of a new industry sector,” the Commerce Department said.

Eurozone: The European Central Bank pledged on Thursday to keep interest rates at record lows for even longer to boost sluggish inflation and warned that the rapidly spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus poses a risk to the euro zone’s recovery.

The central bank of the 19 countries that share the euro said it would not hike borrowing costs until it sees inflation reach its 2% target “well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably” — a controversial decision that generated significant dissent.

“We did so to underline our commitment to maintain a persistently accommodative monetary policy stance to meet our inflation target,” ECB President Christine Lagarde told a news conference.

She said the ECB wants to see inflation head to 2% by the mid-point of its forecast horizon, which currently stretches to 2023 and is extended by one year every December, and that any deviation above the target should be incidental.

Important Data: US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) today at 2:00 this time estimated

0.4%, previously which was -1.4%. GERMANY Manufacturing PMI (Jul) today at 3:30 this time estimated 64.2, previously which was 65.1. UK Composite PMI   today at 4:30 this time estimated 61.9, previously which was 62.2. CANADA Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) today at 8:30 this time estimated -2.2%, previously which was -7.2%.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.37542, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.37395 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.37788

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.17619, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.17455 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.17831

GBPJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 151.679, TAKE PROFIT AT 151.959 AND STOP LOSS AT 151.405

CHFJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 119.821, TAKE PROFIT AT 119.606 AND STOP LOSS AT 120.137

DOW JONES

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 34782 TAKE PROFIT AT 34902 AND STOP LOSS AT 34660

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 71.64 TAKE PROFIT AT 71.20 AND STOP LOSS AT 72.24

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1806.72, TAKE PROFIT AT 1797.19 AND STOP AT 1812.56

ETHEREUM

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 2074.58 TAKE PROFIT AT 2140.74 AND STOP AT 2032.59

 

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Asia Pacific stocks were mostly down on Wednesday morning. The Shanghai composite is down 0.37% at 3,368.75. Overall, the Singapore MSCI down 0.10% at 357.95. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 1.02% at 25,321. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 down 1.25% at 27,570, while the Topix index is down 0.80% at 1918.5. South Korea’s Kospi down 0.03% to 3231.49. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.57% at 7388.8.

European equities Tuesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded down 0.64% at 15519.13, CAC 40 futures down 0.71% at 6531.93 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.42% at 6,996.07.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.24% at 35058.52. The S&P 500 down 0.47% to 4401.47 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.36% at 14950.0, NYSE closes at 16520.96 down 0.27%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.03% at 1.38777. The USDJPY up 0.08% at 109.857. The USDCHF up 0.10% at 0.91521. EURUSD down 0.01% at 1.1815, EUR/GBP flat at 0.85133. The USD/CNY down 0.10% at 6.5047, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures up 0.41% at $1,805.61. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.64% to $24.82 per ounce, Platinum up 0.81% at $1062.32 per ounce, and Palladium down 0.82% to $2,628.00.

Crude Oil mix on Wednesday; Brent crude oil up 0.28% at $74.93 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is down 0.28% at $71.56.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 39810.00 up 0.9%, Ethereum at 2283.05 down 0.94%, Litecoin at 134.29 down 0.41%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

Fiserv Inc. up 2.991% at $114.68, PTC Inc. down 5.102% at $143.6, FedEx Corp. down 4.998% to $282.63, KLA Corp. down 3.022% to $309, Baidu Inc. down 2.796% to $157.83, Paccar Inc. down 2.646% at $84.61.

Economic news:

US: The Biden administration on Tuesday will announce a new push to expand business ties between U.S. companies and Africa, with a focus on building needed digital, health and physical infrastructure on the continent, a senior U.S. official said.

U.S. industry executives welcome the interest, but say dollar flows will lag until the Biden administration wraps up its lengthy review of Trump administration trade measures and sets a clear policy on investments in liquefied natural gas.

Dana Banks, senior director for Africa at the White House National Security Council, will kick off a U.S.-Africa business summit, with a pledge to “re-imagine” and revive Prosper Africa, an initiative unveiled by the Trump administration in 2018.

President Joe Biden, who requested nearly $80 million for the initiative in his budget proposal in May, aims to focus the initiative on women and equity, with an expanded role for small- and medium-sized businesses, she said.

Eurozone: European Central Bank policy makers have acknowledged that their new push to boost inflation expectations could take quite a while to kick in, according to officials familiar with the discussions.

In its strategy review this month, when it raised its inflation goal and acknowledged that it might overshoot, the ECB’s Governing Council discussed the experience of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the officials said.

U.S. expectations — a critical signal of future price gains — were slow to move last August when the Fed adopted average inflation targeting and said it was willing to overshoot its 2% target. They only started to gather pace months later when the incoming Biden administration started to discuss a fiscal boost to the economy.

They accelerated again early this year when the Fed kept policy loose despite price growth jumping well above 2% on soaring demand. While expectations have eased since May as Fed officials started to broach the topic of tapering stimulus, they remain relatively robust.

Important Data: CANADA Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) today at 8:30 this time estimated 0.4%, previously which was 0.4%. US Crude Oil Inventories today at 10:30 this time estimated -2.928M, previously which was 2.108M. Fed Interest Rate Decision today at 14:00 this time estimated 0.25%, previously which was 0.25%. RUSSIA Unemployment Rate (Jun) today at 15:00 this time estimated 5.0%, previously which was 4.9%.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.38672, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.38920 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.38531

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.18017, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.18318 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.17865

USDJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 109.843, TAKE PROFIT AT 109.694 AND STOP LOSS AT 110.069

USDCHF

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 0.91534, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.91318 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.91698

S&P 500

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 4398.24 TAKE PROFIT AT 4410.99 AND STOP LOSS AT 4390.51

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 72.01 TAKE PROFIT AT 71.01 AND STOP LOSS AT 72.42

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1804.82, TAKE PROFIT AT 1793.71 AND STOP AT 1812.34

BTC USD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 39625.61 TAKE PROFIT AT 40832.57 AND STOP AT 38351.78

 

 

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Asia Pacific stocks were up on Thursday morning. The Shanghai composite is up 1.41% at 3,409.13. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.89% at 362.70. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 2.85% at 26,102. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 0.80% at 27,750, while the Topix index is up 0.42% at 1923.5. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.13% to 3240.69. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.46% at 7413.6.

European equities Wednesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 0.33% at 15570.36, CAC 40 futures up 1.18% at 6609.31 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.29% at 7,016.64.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.36% at 34930.94. The S&P 500 down 0.02% to 4400.63 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.05% at 15004.9, NYSE closes at 16573.56 up 0.32%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.29% at 1.39355. The USDJPY down 0.14% at 109.761. The USDCHF down 0.15% at 0.90861. EURUSD up 0.16% at 1.1861, EUR/GBP down 0.04% at 0.85104. The USD/CNY down 0.32% at 6.4702, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures up 0.56% at $1,816.42. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 1.15% to $25.25 per ounce, Platinum up 1.08% at $1076.49 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.73% to $2,645.68.

Crude Oil up on Thursday; Brent crude oil up 0.40% at $75.04 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.94% at $72.23.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 40142.30 up 0.32%, Ethereum at 2304.34 up 0.21%, Litecoin at 140.03 up 0.19%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

Moderna Inc. up 6.338% at $349.32, Boeing Co. up 4.184% at $231.57, Starbucks Corp. down 2.872% to $122.41, Domino’s Pizza Inc. down 2.498% to $524.57,

CSX Corp. down 1.452% to $31.91, Apple Inc. down 1.22% at $144.98.

Economic news:

US: The U.S. economy likely gained steam in the second quarter, with the pace of growth probably the second fastest in 38 years, as massive government aid and vaccinations against COVID-19 fueled spending on travel-related services.

The anticipated acceleration in gross domestic product last quarter would lift the level of GDP above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. Even with the second quarter likely marking the peak in growth this cycle, the economic expansion was expected to remain solid for the remainder of this year.

A resurgence in COVID-19 infections, driven by the Delta variant of the coronavirus, however, poses a risk to the outlook. Higher inflation, if sustained, as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions could also slow the economy. The Commerce Department will publish its snapshot of second-quarter GDP growth on Thursday at 8:30 a.m EDT (1230 GMT).

Eurozone: British car production rose by nearly a third in the first half of 2021 from last year’s slump, but remained down on the five-year average as the sector warned that COVID-19 continued to cause staffing and supply problems.

While factories were forced to close as the pandemic hit Britain in March last year, they have operated in 2021 with protective measures in place, although a lack of semiconductor chips has hit volumes.

Some companies have also been affected by staff having to self-isolate for catching COVID-19 or being in contact with someone who had, as cases rose in recent weeks.

Output increased by an annual 31% in the first six months of the year to 498,923 vehicles, helped by a 22% increase in June, industry body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said, while noting the impact of chip supply problems.

Important Data: Germany Unemployment Change (Jul) today at 3:55 this time estimated -28K, previously which was -38K. US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) today at 8:30 this time estimated 8.5%, previously which was 6.4%. US Initial Jobless Claims today at 8:30 this time estimated 380K, previously which was 419K. JAPAN Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) today at 19:50 this time estimated 0.2%, previously which was 8.3%.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.39339, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.39724 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.39121

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.18505, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.18770 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18333

EURGBP

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 0.85075, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.84971 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.85214

EURJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 130.115, TAKE PROFIT AT 130.542 AND STOP LOSS AT 129.642

DJ EURO STOXX 50

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 4105.00 TAKE PROFIT AT 4148.00 AND STOP LOSS AT 4070.00

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 72.80 TAKE PROFIT AT 73.72 AND STOP LOSS AT 71.88

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1818.37, TAKE PROFIT AT 1824.13 AND STOP AT 1812.66

ETHEREUM

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 2297.86 TAKE PROFIT AT 2392.5 AND STOP AT 2150.32

 

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Asia Pacific stocks were down on Friday morning. The Shanghai Composite is down 0.92% at 3,380.13. Overall, the Singapore MSCI is down 0.67% at 361.90. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 2.23% at 25,621. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 is down 1.83% at 27,300, while the Topix index is down 1.43% at 1902.0. South Korea’s Kospi down 1.17% to 3205.05. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.23% at 7400.3.

European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 0.45% at 15640.47, CAC 40 futures up 0.37% at 6633.77 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.88% at 7,078.43.

In the U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.44% at 35084.54. The S&P 500 up 0.42% to 4419.14 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.77% at 14681.38, NYSE closes at 16697.13 up 0.75%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD down 0.09% at 1.39406. The USDJPY up 0.09% at 109.558. The USDCHF up 0.10% at 0.9071. EURUSD down 0.04% at 1.1879, EUR/GBP up 0.13% at 0.85218. The USD/CNY up 0.09% at 6.4624, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures up 0.02% at $1,827.50. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.21% to $25.55 per ounce, Platinum down 0.07% at $1055.08 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.21% to $2,652.39.

Crude Oil mix on Friday; Brent crude oil down 0.49% at $75.47 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 1.47% at $73.29.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 39732.45 down 0.89%, Ethereum at 2401.13 up 0.72%, Litecoin at 141.38 down 0.02%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT FOR TODAY:

Lennar Corp. up 5.52% at $106.47, Tesla Inc. up 4.694% at $677.35, Equinix Inc. down 5.97% to $786.38, Facebook down 4.008% to $358.32, Biogen Inc. down 1.499% to $329.17, DocuSign Inc. down 1.194% at $301.18.

Economic news:

US: The U.S. Congress on Thursday approved emergency funding to replenish the Capitol Police and bolster security after the Jan. 6 riot by supporters of then-President Donald Trump and to evacuate Afghans who helped American forces from their country.

The $2.1 billion bills was passed by the Senate by a vote of 98-0. The House of Representatives, which had previously passed its own $1.9 billion bills, then promptly approved the Senate version by a vote of 416-11, clearing the way for President Joe Biden to sign it into law.

The bill would provide $521 million to reimburse National Guard units deployed for months to the Capitol following the riot and $300 million for increased security measures at the site. It also would provide $71 million for the Capitol Police to cover overtime costs, hire new officers and other expenses and $35.4 million for that force’s mutual-aid agreements with other law enforcement jurisdictions to help in emergencies.

Without fast action, “Capitol Police funding will be depleted literally in a number of weeks,” Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy said.

Eurozone: The European Central Bank’s new strategy may force the bank to temporarily overshoot its 2% inflation target, the bank said in the accounts of the meeting, which approved the conclusion of the first policy review in 18 years.

The accounts mostly contain information already released to the public and does not include any description of the debate between policymakers at the July 8 meeting, a usual element for this sort of ECB documents.

Important Data: Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q2) today at 4:00 this time estimated 2.0%, previously which was -1.8%. EUROZONE CPI (YoY) (Jul) today at 5:00 this time estimated 2.0%, previously which was 1.9%. CANADA GDP (MoM) (May) today at 8:30 this time estimated -0.3%, previously which was -0.3%. CHINA Manufacturing PMI (Jul) today at 21:00 this time estimated 50.8, previously which was 50.9.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.39432, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.39662 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.39203

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.18814, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.18974 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18713

GBPJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 152.916, TAKE PROFIT AT 153.425 AND STOP LOSS AT 152.358

CHFJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 120.906, TAKE PROFIT AT 121.227 AND STOP LOSS AT 120.458

HANG SENG

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 25794.00 TAKE PROFIT AT 25493.00 AND STOP LOSS AT 26097.00

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 73.20 TAKE PROFIT AT 74.16 AND STOP LOSS AT 72.77

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1830.07, TAKE PROFIT AT 1831.69 AND STOP AT 1828.28

BTCUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 39692.54 TAKE PROFIT AT 39928.20 AND STOP AT 39594.22

 

 

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Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up on Monday morning. The Shanghai composite is up 1.51% at 3,448.78. Overall, the Singapore MSCI down 1.05% at 357.10. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 1.12% at 26,191. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 1.61% at 27,790, while the Topix index is up 1.84% at 1940.0. South Korea’s Kospi up 1.54% to 3220.01. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.34% at 7492.2.

European equities Friday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded down 0.61% at 15544.39, CAC 40 futures down 0.32% at 6612.77 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.66% at 7,032.31.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.42% at 34935.48. The S&P 500 down 0.54% to 4395.27 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.45% at 15043.7, NYSE closes at 16602.28 down 0.57%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD flat at 1.39041. The USDJPY down 0.02% at 109.66. The USDCHF up 0.07% at 0.9058. EURUSD up 0.03% at 1.1870, EUR/GBP up 0.10% at 0.85372. The USD/CNY up 0.04% at 6.4636, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures down 0.26% at $1,809.63. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.06% to $25.47 per ounce, Platinum up 0.45% at $1053.72 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.61% to $2,676.15.

Crude Oil mix on Monday; Brent crude oil down 0.80% at $74.56 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.37% at $73.56.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 39692.64 down 0.36%, Ethereum at 2554.37 down 0.08%, Litecoin at 141.97 up 1.05%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

Dexcom Inc. up 13.038% at $515.51, KLA Corp. up 8.994% at $348.16, Equinix Inc. up 4.327% to $820.41, ETSY Inc. down 7.775% to $183.51, eBay Inc. down 7.084% to $68.21, Carnival Corp. down 4.668% at $21.65.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

US: Democratic leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives on Sunday called on the Biden administration to immediately extend a moratorium on housing evictions through Oct. 18.

The moratorium, related to the coronavirus pandemic, expired at midnight on Saturday. The request was made through a statement by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other top leaders.

“House leadership is calling on the administration to immediately extend the moratorium,” the Democratic leaders said.

President Joe Biden on Thursday asked Congress to extend the deadline, citing the COVID-19 Delta variant that is taking hold in the United States.

But Congress, possibly lacking the votes to approve such an extension, failed to act after a Republican lawmaker blocked a move in the House to immediately bring up a bill under the unanimous consent of the chamber.

Eurozone: Britain is nearing an agreement in principle on a free trade deal with New Zealand, its trade ministry said on Saturday, as London looks to bolster its post-Brexit trade ties with non-EU partners.

The European Union is Britain’s single largest trade partner and the two sides have signed a post-Brexit trade pact, but business groups say they still face extra red tape dealing with European customers and suppliers as a result of Brexit.

Trade minister Liz Truss said that “great progress” had been made in a sixth round of discussions which ran from July 19-30.

A trade agreement with New Zealand could see the removal of tariffs on British and New Zealand goods making products available at lower prices, the ministry said.

Important Data: Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jul) today at 3:55 this time estimated 65.6, previously which was 65.6. UK Manufacturing PMI (Jul) today at 4:30 this time estimated 60.4, previously which was 63.9. US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) today at 10:00 this time estimated 60.9, previously which was 60.6. AUSTRALIA Building Approvals (MoM) (Jun) today at 21:30 this time estimated -4.5%, previously which was -7.1%.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.39087, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.39265 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.38829

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.18692, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19041 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18463

USDJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 109.615, TAKE PROFIT AT 109.449 AND STOP LOSS AT 109.783

USDCHF

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 0.90628, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.90534 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.90743

CAC 40

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 6656.8 TAKE PROFIT AT 6663.9 AND STOP LOSS AT 6627.40

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 73.21 TAKE PROFIT AT 74.16 AND STOP LOSS AT 72.78

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1807.89, TAKE PROFIT AT 1801.84 AND STOP AT 1812.77

LITECOIN USD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 145.95 TAKE PROFIT AT 153.95 AND STOP AT 135.70

 

 

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Asia Pacific stocks were mostly down on Tuesday morning. The Shanghai composite is down 0.21% at 3,456.81. Overall, the Singapore MSCI down 0.68% at 356.30. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 0.05% at 26,128. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 down 0.50% at 27,610, while the Topix index is down 0.41% at 1930.0. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.30% to 3231.62. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.38% at 7462.7.

European equities Monday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 0.16% at 15568.73, CAC 40 futures up 0.95% at 6675.91 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.70% at 7,081.73.

In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.28% at 34838.17. The S&P 500 down 0.18% to 4387.15 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.14% at 14993.8, NYSE closes at 16576.20 down 0.16%.

In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.13% at 1.38947. The USDJPY down 0.09% at 109.199. The USDCHF up 0.05% at 0.9054. EURUSD up 0.07% at 1.1875, EUR/GBP up 0.04% at 0.85467. The USD/CNY up 0.04% at 6.4627, at the time of writing.

In the commodity market U.S. Gold futures down 0.09% at $1,811.26. Elsewhere, Silver futures down 0.20% to $25.29 per ounce, Platinum down 0.01% at $1054.28 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.15% to $2,681.34.

Crude Oil down on Tuesday; Brent crude oil down 0.75% at $72.66 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is down 2.85% at $71.46.

In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 38259.75 down 2.31%, Ethereum at 2475.00 down 5.14%, Litecoin at 138.60 down 1.95%, at the time of writing.

TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

Tesla Inc. up 3.27% at $709.67, ETSY Inc. up 2.932% at $188.89, MSCI Inc. up 2.51% to $610.92, Fiserv Inc. down 4.656% to $109.75, Mosaic Co. down 4.195% to $29.92, Mastercard Inc. down 2.767% at $375.26.

ECONOMIC NEWS:

US: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday took additional steps to preserve the federal government’s borrowing capacity under a reinstated debt limit, suspending some investments in government employee retirement and health benefits funds.

In a letter to House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other congressional leaders, Yellen said she was suspending investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund that are not immediately required to pay beneficiaries.

A two-year suspension of the federal debt limit expired on Saturday, reinstating the cap at the current debt level of about $28.5 trillion.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the extraordinary measures could claw back more than $340 billion in borrowing capacity under the limit. CBO said these actions, combined with the Treasury’s current cash balance of about $459 billion, would allow the government to avoid a payment default into October or November as a partisan fight unfolds over a new suspension or increase in the debt cap.

Eurozone: The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to keep interest rates at record lows for even longer to boost sluggish inflation threatens monetary stability in the 19-member euro zone, a German conservative business group said on Monday.

The ECB said last month it would not hike borrowing costs until it sees inflation reach its 2% target by the mid-point of its forecast horizon, which currently stretches to 2023 and is extended by one year every December.

“The rising inflation rates are a troubling warning signal,” said Wolfgang Steiger, secretary-general of the CDU Wirtschaftsrat, a business group of 12,000 members that is close to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU).

German consumer prices, harmonised to make them comparable with inflation data from other European Union countries, rose by 3.1% in July, a 13-year high, compared with 2.1% in June, leading services sector trade union Verdi to demand significant wage increases.

“It shows that unrestrained borrowing is no political plan in the long run,” added Steiger. “The average saver will in the end pay the price of the unprecedented expansive monetary and fiscal policies of the past years.”

Important Data: NEW ZEALAND Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) data today at 18:45 this time estimated 0.7%, previously which was 0.6%. JAPAN Services PMI (Jul) today at 20:30 this time estimated 46.4, previously which was 48.0. US Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun) today at 10:00 this time estimated 1.0%, previously which was 1.7%. US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks today at 14:00.

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

GBPUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.38925, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.39211 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.38663

EURUSD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.18725, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.18897 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18468

EURGBP

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 0.85427, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.85327 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.85557

EURJPY

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 129.553, TAKE PROFIT AT 129.412 AND STOP LOSS AT 129.701

NIKKEI 225

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 27571.0 TAKE PROFIT AT 27423.0 AND STOP LOSS AT 27820.00

WTI CRUDE OIL

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 71.04 TAKE PROFIT AT 70.49 AND STOP LOSS AT 71.73

GOLD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1808.34, TAKE PROFIT AT 1797.94 AND STOP AT 1817.44

BTC USD

Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis

TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 38362.56 TAKE PROFIT AT 37250.80 AND STOP AT 39729.96

 

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    • By capitalstreet_fx
      WHAT IS A FOREX?
      Forex is the marketplace where various world currencies are traded. The forex market is the largest and is the easiest to liquidate within the world, with trillions of dollars changing hands a day. there’s no centralized location, rather the Forex market is a network of banks, brokers, institutions, and individual traders Many entities, from financial institutions to individual investors, have currency needs, and should also speculate on the direction of a specific pair of currencies movement. They post their orders to shop for and sell currencies on the network in order that they can interact with other currency orders from other parties. The forex market is open 24 hours each day, five days every week, apart from holidays. Currencies should trade on a vacation if a minimum of the country/global market is open for business.

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    • By Michael C. Thomsett
      The crossover is between the middle band and price.
       
      The default setting for Bollinger Bands is two standard deviations. When this default is applied, three bands appear. The upper and lower bands are the same distance from the middle band, because their application of standard deviation is always the same. Bollinger Bands is so reliable that with this default setting, you see violations above upper or below lower bands only rarely. And once violated price tends to retreat into range within a few sessions.
       
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      There is a solution, however.

      If you adjust the default and remove the two standard deviations, replacing it with three, you set up a very unusual situation. Price almost never moves above the upper band or below the lower band when three standard deviations are in use. In fact, a review of most charts and most durations shows that it is very rare to see such a move. However, when price does move outside of three standard deviations, it sets up an exceptional entry signal. The violation of three standard deviations inevitably reverses within one to two sessions in most cases. This is a signal of likely price movement in the opposite direction (bullish after a violation of the lower band, or bearish after violation of the upper band). When you see a violation on the lower side, you can act right away – buy calls or sell puts in anticipation of a bullish reaction.

      An example is seen in the 6-month chart of Home Depot Two violations of three standard deviation are highlighted in March. By March 23, price has declined about 100 points in one only month. For many traders in either options or stock, this big decline means you want to stay away from the underlying. It could signal a massive bearish move that could continue indefinitely. However, considering the brief moves below the lower band, the likelihood of bullish reversal is among the strongest you can find. But when should the entry occur?

      In this example, three bullish candlestick reversal signals identify the bottom of the downtrend. It is very unusual to see two consecutive and strong reversal signals. At the very bottom of the trend, you see a bullish engulfing immediately followed by a bullish piercing lines. Those two are strong just by themselves. But there also is a gap immediately before these signals and then immediately after in the opposite direction. This sets up the four lowest sessions as an island cluster, which by itself is a strong bullish reversal signal.

      The combination of the two violations of the lower band set up with three standard deviations, the bullish engulfing, the bullish piercing lines, and the island cluster is one of the strongest bullish reversals you will ever see.
         
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      There is an exit signal here as well, which often is found on charts using Bollinger Bands. Note the behavior of the middle band, the dotted line. It tracks the trendline consistently, until the first week of June, when it crosses over the trendline and moves to the downside. This is a strong signal that the trend is about to either reverse or flatten. By mid-June, a small decline takes place and then underlying price moves sideways. The middle band crossover is the exit signal. Altogether, this simple set of patterns and signals provides a compelling case for identifying option entry and exit.

      If an options trader already holds shares of an underlying, it is possible that a 3-standard deviation violation will never be found or will occur only rarely and during periods of extreme price movement. But for the options trader who is not in an equity position and is looking for opportunities to make strong options trades (long calls or short puts, for example), the observation of the 3-standard deviation opportunity is difficult to ignore.
       
      The question remains: Which issues work best for this type of timing strategy? A low-volatility underlying will not be likely to ever exhibit a violation of the three standard deviations. This is a strategy designed for higher-volatility issues, where the 3-standard deviation moves are more likely to occur. This is a higher-risk selection for options traders, but the opportunity to set up trades with high degree of reliability, is compelling and may offset the higher than average historical and implied volatility. Many options traders gravitate toward these higher-risk underlying issues anyhow, because the option premium tends to be richer and chances for larger profits are also better.
       
      This strategy employing three standard deviations, candlestick reversals, and center band crossover, takes the high risk of the volatile underlying, and overlays a high degree of certainty. Although no trade is 100% certain, this example lowers the greater risk that plagues options traders, the risk of (a) poor entry timing and (b) failure to exit when the trend ends. Both risks are well managed in the strategy employing all the required elements.

      Michael C. Thomsett is a widely published author with over 80 business and investing books, including the best-selling Getting Started in Options, coming out in its 10th edition later this year. He also wrote the recently released The Mathematics of Options. Thomsett is a frequent speaker at trade shows and blogs on his website at Thomsett Publishing as well as on Seeking Alpha, LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook.

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    • By Michael C. Thomsett
      This assumes your timing is made more reliable by selecting long or short positions in close proximity to resistance and support, and that the moneyness of the option also is considered. For short positions, focus on high volatility and very short time to expiration. For long positions, seek low volatility and a balance between cost and time.

      The combined signals recommended for better than average timing are the combined 50-day moving average (MA) and the 8-day exponential moving average (which also is called the t-line). The combination of these two can be used to generate a trade based on crossover, and confirmed with secondary price signals.

      For example, the six-month chart of Caterpillar (CAT) reveals two strong examples of crossover between the two priced averages, and confirmation in candlestick reversals.
       

       
      In both instances, the predicted bullish reversal occurred. The initial signal is when the 8-day EMA (t-line) crosses below the 50-day MA. This first occurred in the first week of February. This was confirmed by two bullish reversal candlesticks, a bullish engulfing and a bullish harami. The harami too price to the bottom of the downtrend, closing at about $145 per share. At this point, a bullish options trade would have made sense. If a current long put or short call was already open, this was the place to close. If no options were open at this point, it made sense to open a long call or a short put.

      The subsequent bullish reversal too price up to $162.50 in only two weeks. Any open options could be closed after observing the running gaps at the end of this bullish run.

      The second occurrence was at the end of April. The same formation of crossover predicted a bullish turn. This was confirmed by an unusually long black candle that formed into a bullish piercing lines signal. This was further confirmed immediately by a bullish meeting lines. This was a mild signal with low daily ranges, but it still worked as confirmation, predicting another bullish run. Opening bullish trades (or closing bearing trades) at this point would be well-timed, as price ran from $142 to $155 in only two weeks.

      These short-term signals are exceptionally strong. The combination of a 50-MA simple moving average and an 8-day exponential moving average set up reversals via crossover; and as long as you find confirmation, it becomes a reliable timing signal for options trades.

      The combination provides a secondary benefit as well. The 8-day EMA serves as dynamic support as prices rise, and as declining resistance as prices fall. This tends to be more reliable than the traditional straight-line resistance and support trendlines most traders follow.

      Another secondary cautionary point: The 8-day trendline tends to give off reversal signals on its own, When this is below price, it indicates a bearish condition, and when above, the signal is bullish. At the conclusion of this chart, the 8-day EMA is below price, predicting a likely retracement to the downside. This is confirmed by another crossover, the move of the 50-day MA below the 8-day EMA. This confirms a likely bearish move to occur next.

      Both of these moving averages are lagging indicators, so they have to be accepted with caution. This is why candlestick confirmation adds confidence to any reversal signal. However, even lagging indicators are of value in trading options, when used together as crossover set-up for confirmation, as seen on the CAT chart.

      Any help options traders can get from price signals like these, is worth keeping on the chart. Once a position is opened, look for the warning signs that a favorable trend is ab out to level out or reverse. Once an option has been closed, look for potential reversal points to enter a new position and take advantage of a reversal.

      There is no such thing as a “perfect” signal, and no one will get 100% perfect timing. But using two or more signals together like these two moving averages, improves your overall timing and profits in entering and exiting options positions.

      Michael C. Thomsett is a widely published author with over 80 business and investing books, including the best-selling Getting Started in Options, coming out in its 10th edition later this year. He also wrote the recently released The Mathematics of Options. Thomsett is a frequent speaker at trade shows and blogs on his website at Thomsett Guide as well as on Seeking Alpha, LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook. 
    • By Michael C. Thomsett
      To review: Bollinger Bands has three averages. The middle band is a 20-period simple moving average. The upper band and lower band are the second and third parts. Each are two standard deviations away from the middle band. This is a visual summary of historical volatility. Price generally is not likely to trade above the upper band or below the lower band for very long. When price does move outside of these ranges, it retreats back into range very quickly. So BB is like a “probability matrix” for timing entry and exit.

      The T-line is an 8-day exponential moving average of price that yields surprisingly reliable signals for changes in price direction. The rule is that when price is above the t-line, it remains bullish until it crosses below and closes for at least two sessions. This sets up a bearish reversal. When price is below the t-line, the prevailing bearish trend continues until price crosses above and closes above for at least two consecutive sessions.

      Taken apart, BB and the t-line are powerful on their own. However, when used in combination, you set up a very powerful dynamic trading range, making it easy to spot when a trend ends. As price advance, the BB upper band represents resistance and the t-line is support. When prices are moving down, the t-line is resistance and the BB lower band is support.

      The chart for Cummins (CMI) shows the reversal signals this combination highlights.
       

       
      The combined signal sets up the narrow channel based on whether price trend is bullish or bearish. In a bullish trend, the upper Bollinger Band is rising resistance and the t-line (red on the chart) is rising support. The bullish trend continues until price crosses below the t-line and closes there for two consecutive sessions.

      In a bearish trend, the t-line represents declining resistance and the lower Bollinger Band is declining support. The bearish trend continues until price crosses above the t-line and closes above for two consecutive sessions.

      The CMI chart shows how this works. In May, price had been declining down to as low as $140 per share. But at mid-month, price crossed above the t-line (the red line), demonstrating that the downtrend, for the moment at least, was ending.

      At the beginning of July, a further decline ended when price again moved across the t-line and marked the beginning of a gradual advance.

      The combination of Bollinger Bands and t-line is so reliable that it can be used effectively in two ways. First, it distinguishes between retracement (not moving across the t-line) and reversal. Second, actual crossover is the signal point for leaving a current trade and taking profits, or for entering a new trend based on the newly revised price direction.

      This solves the most disturbing aspect of short-term options trading. When do you enter and exit a trade? Even with the lack of clear reversal signals, the combined use of BB and the t-line is a powerful and reliable system to improve timing.

      Michael C. Thomsett is a widely published author with over 80 business and investing books, including the best-selling Getting Started in Options, coming out in its 10th edition later this year. He also wrote the recently released The Mathematics of Options. Thomsett is a frequent speaker at trade shows and blogs on his website at Thomsett Guide as well as on Seeking Alpha, LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook.
    • By Michael C. Thomsett
      If you – like so many options traders – time entry and exit on a series of signals, then you already know that false signals appear. Confusing reversal with retracement, for example, is common. And even the strongest signals may be only coincidences of price pattern. Following are some suggestions for identifying when signals might be false and should lead to caution in timing of trades.
       
      Always require confirmation
      Many traders, wanting to make a perfectly timed trade, forget to look for confirmation. A true reversal must be confirmed with a second signal indicating the same likely reversal to follow. False signals are common because short-term price behavior is chaotic. Even strong signals can be misleading and confirmed signals also fail. But to minimize poorly timed trades, signal and confirmation are essential as a starting point.

      Don’t limit your use of confirming signals. Most traders have a short list of favorite signals. This develops from past success and makes sense. But it can also lead to a failure to see a reversal. Be willing to consider signals beyond your short list, and to rely on a broad range of possible confirmation indicators. Move beyond price indicators as well. Check volume, moving averages, and momentum oscillators to find additional confirmation beyond price. Even for price signals, check both traditional Western technical price signals (violations of resistance or support, big gaps, double tops and bottoms, island reversals) as well as Eastern technical signals (candlesticks).
       
      Avoid confirmation bias
      One of the most chronic problems traders face is confirmation bias, seeing what we want to see but ignoring contrary information. This occurs because all traders are humans, and we all want to perfect the science of chart reading. However, if you focus only on the science and ignore the equally important art of chart reading, you could fall into the confirmation bias trap.

      This happens when you believe that reversal is underway, and you want to time your options trade (either entry or exit) as accurately as possible. As a result, you find reversal signals even when they are weak or are contradicted by other price activity (such as continuation signals). A rational approach is to resist confirmation bias and analyze what the signals reveal; be aware that wanting to be perfect in timing can lead to errors.
       
      Lack of confirmation is a sign that you might be looking at retracement
      Some traders see an initial signal and think it represents a reversal. For example, price has moved strongly to the upside but has reached a plateau and is beginning to decline. An initial reversal is located, but there appears to be no confirmation in price, moving averages, volume or momentum.

      The lack of confirmation for initial reversal signals is one symptom of retracement. This momentary movement in price may be a passing attribute of price behavior, regression toward the mean rather than the  more dramatic directional change. Retracement and reversal appear identical at first glance but knowing the difference can save you from a poorly-timed decision.
       
      Be a contrarian
      Is everyone acting in the same manner? If the crowd believes price is about to turn and move in the opposite direction, it could be a good time to act as a contrarian. Apply logic and not emotion to the timing of trades. The talking heads on financial TV shows reflect the popular view, which is not always the right view.
       
      Remember that timing is not perfect
      Even when you find a reversal and confirmation, it does not mean the change in direction will be immediately. Traders often are frustrated because a strong reversal and confirmation is identified, but price does not respond. It could be several days, perhaps even a week or more, before the reversal takes hold.
       
      Don’t change default settings for the wrong reasons
      Default settings in online charting services are set for a reason. For example, Relative Strength Index (RSI) is set for a 14-day average. Some traders like to change this by reducing the averaging period, usually on the rationale that this produces more overbought or oversold signals.

      The flaw in this thinking is that more signals are not reliable. In any chart, you will discover that changing the RSI default produces numerous false signals. The 14-day average works and yields the right number of signals.

      Some default settings can be changed to improve your reading. For example, Bollinger Bands sets upper and lower levels at two standard deviations from the middle band. Violations of the upper and lower bands tend to be short-lived and of great value in spotting likely reversal. If the default is changed to three standard deviations, most charts show no violations of the bands. However, when violations do occur, the return to a previous range is as close to 100% certainty within a day or two, so this is an excellent system for spotting reliable reversal timing.
       
      Resist impatience
      Options traders tend to be analytical and like using a range of signals. But this can also become a trap. At some point, you must act. In fact, at some point, you need to convert reliance on signals and depend to some degree on intuition.

      However, a greater problem for many traders is impatience. Options traders like to be in the game, so a tendency is to want a trade even when the signals are not strong or, perhaps, do not even exist. Avoid making trades in anticipation of reversal at mid-range and acknowledge that reversal is more likely when price is near resistance or support. If reversal signals are not found and confirmed, don’t make the trade. Wait and be patient.

      The desire to make a trade can mislead you into believing a signal is there, even when it is not. Every options trader knows this but may easily fail to respond logically to rational analysis. An impatient trader will lose in too many trades. The cold, impartial, analytical contrarian might not make as many trades as others but is more likely to book profits from well-timed options trades.

      Michael C. Thomsett is a widely published author with over 80 business and investing books, including the best-selling Getting Started in Options, coming out in its 10th edition later this year. He also wrote the recently released The Mathematics of Options. Thomsett is a frequent speaker at trade shows and blogs on his website at Thomsett Publishing as well as on Seeking Alpha, LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook.

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    • By Michael C. Thomsett
      The attributes are easily spotted on a chart, but it does not appear often. It consists of three specific parts. First, price gaps away from the current trading range, either above or below. The gap itself is significant, but it can mean may things: reversal, continuation, or just momentary volatility.

      The second attribute is trading in the new range, but only for a limited number of sessions. The “typical” island cluster consists of three to six sessions. Every trader knows that several things can happen next: Continued trading in the new range, movement in the same direction, or movement reversing and going back to the previous range. In other words, at the point of the second phase, you cannot know what will happen next.

      The third attribute is where a call to action occurs. It consists of a gap in the opposite direction, setting up the cluster. Now there is a limited trading activity set off by gaps on both sides, concluding with price moving back to the previous level. This forecasts a strong trend in the direction of the second gap.

      An example of this was seen on the chart of Cummins (CMI). In August and September price was stuck in consolidation between $135 and $145 per share. A breakout in late September took price above the consolidation range and led to a strong downtrend in October. Price moved from a high of $152 down to $139 in less than two weeks. Then a gap appeared, moving price further, down to $134.
       
       
       
      The new low was significant, as it remained below the previous support level during consolidation, of $135 per share. Trading remained in this range, from $135 down to $125 for six sessions.

      Next, price gapped higher, from a close of about $133 up above $135. In this pattern, creating an island cluster, the signal was clear. Because the price after the gap closed at the previous support price during consolidation, the signal clearly predicted a new bullish move.

      This is typical after the island cluster. Price tends to move away from the cluster, often strongly, and to either set up a new range, or to remain volatile in the short term. Either event is appealing to options traders.

      In the example, CMI price did as predicted, moving higher. This is shown in the second chart.
       

        
      This chart extends beyond the timing of the island cluster. The six-day island cluster was visible after the pattern was concluded. As predicted, it took price higher over the following month, moving from $135 to as high as $155. It later plunged back to $125 over the first three weeks of December, then turning bullish once again.

      The volatility after the conclusion of the island cluster could be disturbing to many equity traders. But to options traders, this situation sets up attractive swing trading possibilities, especially given the overall range between $125 on the low side and $155 on the high side.

      Trading options at the conclusion of the island cluster is indicated in one of the following ways:

      Open short calls and open long puts should be closed based on this pattern. As the island cluster ended, the forecast was for a strong move to higher prices.

      Open short puts and open long calls should be left open due to the pattern. The conclusion of the island cluster predicts price move higher, meaning the open short put will lose value in coming days or weeks and can be bought to close at a profit or allowed to expire worthless.

      For traders with no open positions, the conclusion of an island cluster indicates new trades that should be opened, and timing is excellent for a bullish move. However, before embarking on any new positions, seek confirmation from a secondary signal. The long white session before the concluding gap, followed by another long white session on the second day after the gap, may be view as bullish confirmation.

      A bullish trade is indicated when the island cluster occurs to the downside, as in this example. This may consist of selling to open a short put or buying to open a long call. The opposite trades would be indicated when an island cluster occurs above the current range and pointing to the likelihood of a bearish reversal.

      Timing of trades depends on a trader’s strategic viewpoint. For long options, a one-month time to expiration is likely to work best. Price will not include excessive time value and time decay will not accelerate until the final two weeks of the option’s life. For short options, the idea timing is one week to 10 days. This will include a weekend with following Friday expiration and time decay will be rapid. This means the chances for being able to buy to close at a profit will be at maximum.

      The weekend is essential in the timing of a short trade. On average, options lose one-third of their remaining time value between he Friday before expiration and the Monday of expiration week. This timing, combined with the exceptional reversal signal provided by the island cluster, is the key element to timing of options trades in this situation.

      The same overall timing strategy can be applied to any strong signal with confirmation, and timing is as important as proximity in every instance. The idea option trade will be at the money or slightly out of the money (for long) or in the money (for short). These proximity guidelines minimize cost for long positions while keeping the trade close to the strike; and maximize premium income for short positions while setting up the opportunity for profits from rapid time decay – all if price behaves as expected. And this is the element of uncertainty that makes options trading interesting. Manageable risk levels produce profits when reversal and confirmation are recognized … most of the time. However, traders – especially swing traders – also need to be realistic about the possibility that even the strongest signals are misleading at times.  

      Michael C. Thomsett is a widely published author with over 80 business and investing books, including the best-selling Getting Started in Options, coming out in its 10th edition later this year. He also wrote the recently released The Mathematics of Options. Thomsett is a frequent speaker at trade shows and blogs on his website at Thomsett Guide as well as on Seeking Alpha, LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook. 
       
    • By kesh
      Hello, Traders!
       
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