SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. Join Us!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

Kim

CMLviz Trade Machine

790 posts in this topic

Recommended Posts

I have signed up for this service as it does have some suitability for testing some basic strategies for beginners like myself. However there are lots of Error messages popping up with custom strategies. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Kim I signed up to this service but do not find it useful and wish to unsubscribe. Unfortunately, while you can sign up easily there does not seem to be any way you can cancel the subscription through the site and no contact details anywhere. Do you know how to unsubscribe? Alternatively, do you have an email address I can contact?

Edited by koba

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, koba said:

@Kim I signed up to this service but do not find it useful and wish to unsubscribe. Unfortunately, while you can sign up easily there does not seem to be any way you can cancel the subscription through the site and no contact details anywhere. Do you know how to unsubscribe? Alternatively, do you have an email address I can contact?

I'm sure you are not the first one who wants to cancel (although it would really be beyond my understanding why would someone want to cancel the best backtesting software in the world), so I'm sure there is a way to do it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, TrustyJules said:

support@cmlviz.com - I was also subscribed and cancelled because like you I found the value add lacking BUT their service and communications were always prompt and not problematic. They will unsubscribe you very quickly.

Many thanks. Much appreciated

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Kim said:

..... it would really be beyond my understanding why would someone want to cancel the best backtesting software in the world...

Well, the answer is not particularly deep. The fact of the matter is that I did not find the service particularly useful for my own trading needs and have now built my own backtesting / predictive analysis tools that are a better fit for me. Consequently, I no longer need the service. I have no particular criticism of the service and I can see why others might find it useful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tribalblu said:

I have found numerous bugs that i have reported  and i just found another today. sigh... I'm not sure how much backtest data is still valid after my recent discovery. 

I don't usually peep up on this board but that last statement is inaccurate. Virtually every time someone thinks they found "a bug," it turns out that it's user error.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with @Ophir Gottlieb I have been using the tool for about 2 years now, each time I thought I found a bug I contacted their customer service and it turned out to be something in my configuration. Customer support has been really good. New features are being added all the time.

I think at current prices, it's a bargain. I wouldn't be surprised to see the price double.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ophir Gottlieb said:

I don't usually peep up on this board but that last statement is inaccurate. Virtually every time someone thinks they found "a bug," it turns out that it's user error.

Ophir, I really appreciate the service you provide and I am in no way talking down your service. I have previously contacted email support about this and they have acknowledged the issue. Could you look into the Options Expiry dates that falls on Saturdays and those where the back test closes days after contract expiry.

 

Also I am lazy to send an email to support again but there is an issue with the *custom* strategy. If you have tried replicating a strangle for example using the custom, and compare that with the *Strangle* preset, the results are different. After looking into it , the bug was found to be that it chooses the wrong strike price for the Delta i chose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry, it is Call and Put spreads that have this problem and also not all companies are affected by this bug. For example AAPL has this issue but GOOGL is fine.

21 minutes ago, tribalblu said:

 

Also I am lazy to send an email to support again but there is an issue with the *custom* strategy. If you have tried replicating a strangle for example using the custom, and compare that with the *Strangle* preset, the results are different. After looking into it , the bug was found to be that it chooses the wrong strike price for the Delta i chose.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/19/2017 at 7:53 PM, Ophir Gottlieb said:

What's Coming Next
In the next month we will be making an even larger upgrade:

1. Intra-day prices for stop losses and limits
We will use intraday prices to see if stops and limits are triggered

2. Custom strategies
Create and save your own custom strategies (up to 4 legs)
This enables calendars, butterflies, ratios, and more

3. Dollar denominated spreads
If you don't like deltas, use dollar spreads (e.g.: test a $5 wide call spread in Apple)

4. More history
We will be adding a fourth and fifth year of history to the back-tester

May I ask what is the progress for #1 and #3? As far as I know I don't see these being implemented. I am seeing a lot of losing trades that the loss is beyond my stoploss limit because they are based on EOD price. No way to change to dollar denominated spread either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Sam Chen said:

May I ask what is the progress for #1 and #3? As far as I know I don't see these being implemented. I am seeing a lot of losing trades that the loss is beyond my stoploss limit because they are based on EOD price. No way to change to dollar denominated spread either.

The community preferred technicals and technical alerts in real-time, so we built #2 and #4 and a huge build out to techncials inteads. Intra day option pricing has virtually no demand relative to other features have asked for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Ophir Gottlieb ... @Kim ...

What's the current SO deal on this? The link at the top goes to a $99 deal, but I can get that just going to the site directly, so no 30% discount as stated?

Strange timeline on this thread ... wild activity up until October 2017, then sudden death ... did the activity move to other SO threads, or did everyone just lose interest?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Ophir Gottlieb said:

The community preferred technicals and technical alerts in real-time, so we built #2 and #4 and a huge build out to techncials inteads. Intra day option pricing has virtually no demand relative to other features have asked for.

I think having some degree of intra day data would be a game changer.

You know how much can happen during the course of a single day that will be missed if you need to wait until the day is over.

If there were someway to run everything exactly the same as it currently is but add the ability to do it 15, 30, 60 minute etc. time frames, there is so much more that can be uncovered.

Maybe that many intra day time frames could be too much of a challenge to develop. But , at the very least , just having one would make a huge difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, trader212 said:

@Ophir Gottlieb ... @Kim ...

What's the current SO deal on this? The link at the top goes to a $99 deal, but I can get that just going to the site directly, so no 30% discount as stated?

Strange timeline on this thread ... wild activity up until October 2017, then sudden death ... did the activity move to other SO threads, or did everyone just lose interest?

 

$99/month and the price is expected to continue increasing as new features are added. As usually, early adapters made a very decision.

There is a members only topic with over 1,700 posts. Our members are killing it using the tool.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Kim ... 

Right, sorry, I knew that topic was there and just spaced it out ... I can see how the continuity picks up from this one.

So, repeating question just to be clear: There is no 30% discount as stated at the top of this topic ... just the $99 price?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have read about intraday testing, being a really good feature if possible. This is extraordinarily expensive to implement so feature like that would probably necessitate either a premium level of membership required to add more money per month, Ir a possible  huge increase in the price for new members.

Also what would be interesting to see results of the trade ideas generated emails, and see if there’s an advantage prospectively. If there is, but I think that in and of itself shows the value of the back tester. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its been awhile since I was a member.  I think adding in technical indicators was huge because my biggest complaint before was most of their backtested screens just assumed a certain market environment.  For example, look how well this low vol. strategy did in 2017 or look how great this long vol. strategy did in October 2018.   But now with the addition of technicals you can better isolate and run different strategies during different market conditions.

I would really love to see a IV indicator so for example you could test short volatility strategies only when IV is above a point and long volatility when IV is below a point.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Gen88 said:

Just signed up for the service. What’s the best way to learn the functions and backtesting of the service as many prior samples are updated and no longer apply?

Go the discover tab and watch the second movie down (note that it is password protected). Also, please use support@cmlviz.com , this is not a support board.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Djtux (for some reason, I cannot quote your question, forum doesn't allow), I remember you asked a question 2.5 years ago.

https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/topic/3654-cmlviz-trade-machine/?page=14&tab=comments#comment-81703

See the tweet below.

https://twitter.com/OphirGottlieb/status/1124081382865735681

 

Edited by krisbee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just subscribed yesterday to TMachine

Is there anyway to customize the scanner to scan for pre-earnings  calendars  where the trade is 21 days BE and the front sell option expires in after earnings and Close the trade 1 day before earnings

Thus a custom scanner to find the stocks like KIM's pre earning (double) calenders?

If i missed this in the discussions I am sorry, but could you then post the link?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Windeon said:

Just subscribed yesterday to TMachine

Is there anyway to customize the scanner to scan for pre-earnings  calendars  where the trade is 21 days BE and the front sell option expires in after earnings and Close the trade 1 day before earnings

Thus a custom scanner to find the stocks like KIM's pre earning (double) calenders?

If i missed this in the discussions I am sorry, but could you then post the link?

hi there,

 

Welcome to Trade Machine.

 

You can create your own custom strategy and run it against 5 stocks at a time entering the tickers comma delimited.

 

You can see how to create a custom strategy here:

https://vimeo.com/221315614

 

There is no way to create a full blown scan for the retail product but 5 at a time does pretty well and we will make that 10 at time soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, CBucks said:

Hi All, the moving averages in Thinkorswim are not matching the ones in Trade Machine, is there a way to get them to match? Stay safe!

ToS doesn't use adjusted MAs. We do. 

 

You can see them in real time on www.cmlviz.com --> pivot points

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/17/2019 at 4:48 PM, Kim said:

The $99 price already includes the discount. But I will let @Ophir Gottlieb to clarify.

Is this discount for TradeMachine Pro to $99/month still applicable for SO members?  If so, what is the procedure to get the discount applied to a new subscription.  Thank you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Skimoviestar said:

Is this discount for TradeMachine Pro to $99/month still applicable for SO members?  If so, what is the procedure to get the discount applied to a new subscription.  Thank you.

The price is now $199 / mo.  SO gets it for $129/mo right now. The link is in the first post.

 

The price will go up to $499/mo within the next few years as we continue to add features, like the "Create" tab we just added this week.

 

The price never goes up for anyone that is a subscriber.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/19/2017 at 1:22 PM, Yowster said:

quick observation for anyone else plugging scenarios like the MS post above into the tool and getting different results.   Note that by default the setting for Execution Fill Type is halfway between mid and market (and I think that is what is used in these samples), but I had changed my setting to mid market because the vast majority of SO trades I am able to open/close within a few cents of mid-point pricing.   This had a huge effect on the %return when compared to what was in the article (mine was much higher).   I would expect a bit higher but the result was much higher.   This got me thinking Why such the big difference???  I came up with 2 thoughts:

  1. The tool is currently using end-of-day data, and I have noticed that bid/ask spreads at market close tend to be a little wider than what they are during market hours.
  2. When closing winning trades, the options with bigger gains are ITM by quite a bit and the bid/ask spreads for deeper ITM options tend to be quite a bit wider than those near ATM (especially at market close).

 

What setting is best to use???   That is up to the user.   But after many years of options trading I can safely say that the vast majority of my trades are filled within a few cents of the bid/ask mid-point (if I have to chase too far from the mid-point to open a trade, I typically don't open it).

Even though you posted this 3 years ago--I joined CML TradeMachine and was reading through the blog and came across this and it seems like such great advice for newer members such as myself not to "chase" trades much beyond the midpoint of the market---I have gotten much better at walking away from trades that will not fill me at the mid or better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For anyone who is wondering about TM, I use it everyday. It's worked well for me and new features are being added all the time. I've kept a record of every single TM and Steadyoptions trade since early 2019 and am in the process of calculating which are the most profitable of 845 completed trades so far. I find the new stock screener also to be very helpful. You obviously can't take every recommended TM backtested trade at face value. It's just a starting point to see if it looks good based on current prices and market conditions.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Fractalfriend said:

For anyone who is wondering about TM, I use it everyday. It's worked well for me and new features are being added all the time. I've kept a record of every single TM and Steadyoptions trade since early 2019 and am in the process of calculating which are the most profitable of 845 completed trades so far. I find the new stock screener also to be very helpful. You obviously can't take every recommended TM backtested trade at face value. It's just a starting point to see if it looks good based on current prices and market conditions.  

I would be very interested in this.  Thank you. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Frank, here are my TM trades just for 14-day Pre-Earnings Diagonals since March 2019. TradeMachine shows these if the stock is over its 50-day moving average. The backtester sells a 30-delta 7-day call and buys a 50-delta 14-day call. In some cases where weeklies don't exist it does this with monthly positions instead. I didn't take every trade suggested by TM, only where the stock hadn't started to rocket up yet before earnings and options liquidity looked good. So the chart had to look close to flat for the prior trading days. Since this was a test, positions are on the small side, that is a few hundred dollars per diagonal.

 

Total trades were 88 of which 64 were winners, or roughly 3 out of 4. Total invested for the 88 trades was $28,505 with a total profit of $1,846. Average position cost was $324 with an average return per trade of 6.5%, or $21, holding the trade for around a week before the position is closed. Biggest loss was $-403 and biggest winner was $327.

 

My conclusion is that, so far, this type of trade is consistently profitable. It's tempting to hold the long 14-day call past the expiration of the 7-day short call if the latter expired worthless and the stock has gone down a bit, but this doesn't tend to help you. If the position isn't profitable after a week, just close the whole thing.

 

Edited by Fractalfriend

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kim, my average losing trade is around 40%, or $118 loss, of the 24 trades that weren't profitable. I generally just hold these positions until the shorts expire, unless the stock price has touched or exceeded the 30 delta short strike during the week before expiration. Depending on the circumstances, I still might hold until the short call expiration. Since you're playing the market both ways with these trades, as you well know, you'll never make a huge amount per trade but your losses are also limited by the credit from the short position. So for me they qualify as a steady option with the caveat that I don't take these positions if the stock has been rocketing around a lot during the previous few days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, 40% average loss is not too bad, but it still requires smaller position. Theoretically the loss can be much higher than the credit from the short options - if the stock goes down a lot. Seems like a good strategy - as long as you keep your position sizing under control.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, that's right. And for that reason I don't take these positions for more expensive stocks. Also, there's a danger that if the stock price goes up too much, and your long and short deltas were too close together, it could cost you more to get out of the short side than you made on the long side even though the expiration dates are a week apart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Fractalfriend said:

Also, there's a danger that if the stock price goes up too much, and your long and short deltas were too close together, it could cost you more to get out of the short side than you made on the long side even though the expiration dates are a week apart.

This doesn't make sense, especially considering that the long options expire after earnings. The gains might be reduced if the stock rallies too much, but I don't think loss is possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account. It's easy and free!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Similar Content

    • By Ophir Gottlieb
      How to Profit from Trading Options in Autodesk Inc Right After Earnings
       


      Date Published: 2017-05-18 
      Written by Ophir Gottlieb 

      LEDE 
      While Autodesk Inc (NASDAQ:ADSK) just crushed earnings again, sending shares soaring in the after hours trade, one option trade after earnings has been a consistent winner. It takes no earnings risk, little stock direction risk and over the last year has never lost while returning over 160% annualized returns. 

      The Trade After the Excitement 
      While most of the focus is on the actual earnings move for a stock, that's the distraction when it comes to the option market. For Autodesk Inc, irrespective of whether the earnings move was up or down, if we waited one-day after the stock move from earnings, and then sold an out of the money put spread, the results were very strong. 

      We can examine this, objectively, with a custom option back-test. Here is our earnings set-up: 
       


      Rules 
      * Open short put spread 1 day after earnings 
      * Close short put spread 29 days later 
      * Use the option that is closest to but greater than 30-days away from expiration 

      Here are the results over the last year: 
       


      That's a 47.3% return, with 4 winning trades and 0 losing trades. The total holding period was less than 4 full months, meaning the annualized return was over 160%. No earnings risk was taken -- this is not a coin flip over earnings. 

      The Logic 
      This strategy works beautifully in many companies where heavy stock volume follows the earnings release. The logic behind this trade follows a narrative that even after a bad earnings release, if we wait a day after, we find the stock at a point of equilibrium. 

      If it gapped down -- that gap is over. If it beat earnings, the downside move is already likely muted. Here's how this strategy has done over the last 6-months: 
       


      That's a 21.3% return, on 2 winning trades and 0 losing trades. Since this is a total of a two-month holding period, that 21.3% is actually over 120% annualized. 

      If you're curious, yes, this also produced positive returns over the last 3-years. Here are those results. 
       


      Now we can find some comfort in this approach where is shows 9 winning trades and just 2 losing trades over the last three-years. 

      WHAT HAPPENED 
      There are patterns to stock behaviors before and after earnings and those patterns reveal opportunities in the option market, without taking the actual risk of earnings. You can find them, stock by stock, Apple, Google, Netflix and of course Autodesk Inc are just a handful of examples. There has been edge here with this strategy. 

      To see how to do this for any stock and for any strategy with just the click of a few buttons, we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: 
      Tap Here to See the Tools at Work 

      Thanks for reading. 

      Risk Disclosure 
      You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. 

      Past performance is not an indication of future results. 

      Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. 

      Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. 

      The author has no position in Autodesk Inc (NASDAQ:ADSK) as of this writing. 

      Back-test Link
       
       
       
       
       
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.